Excepr you total missed on the thousands of dongfeng missiles, whose primary purpose is to safeguard china's sovereign integrity aka the repatriation of tw island.
China's SCS Strategy Thread
- Thread starter lilzz
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Excepr you total missed on the thousands of dongfeng missiles, whose primary purpose is to safeguard china's sovereign integrity aka the repatriation of tw island.
Yes, it'll surprise you that pro-mainland people really do exist in Taiwan. Go to Taiwan, you can find pockets of those people there. Definitely not a popular group, but they exist nevertheless on Taiwanese soil.
But noticed why I say 'pro-China' instead of 'pro-CCP' or 'pro-mainland'? Taiwanese politics is not as simple as you think. There is the incumbent Pan Green coalition led by the DPP (Tsai's party) who are for Taiwanese independence. And then there is the Pan Blue coalition led by the KMT who are for One China. The KMT were the ruling power in Taiwan for the majority of its existence. They are no fans of the CCP, but they always believed that China and Taiwan are still one country. Though the KMT would rather prefer to be in charge of all of China instead of the CCP. Remember that Taiwan's military is literally founded by the KMT, so there would be strong KMT influence in there. So how would the CCP get the KMT to trigger a coup to oust the DPP? It is not as impossible as it sounds.
If the DPP lunatics declare independence, this would mean that the ROC (official name of Taiwan which the KMT founded) relinquishes its claim on the rest of China, and be caught in a futile war against the PRC. This is something that the Pan Blue and the old guards of the ROC cannot stomach. For them, it is better to have this current status-quo of the ROC than to lose everything. This could push the Pan Blue coalition into taking some action to retake power and stop the madness. So the the KMT could be encouraged to carry out this coup 'for the sake of China', not for just any individual party.
If the coup is successful, China and Taiwan can reunify without war. If it fails, there would be turmoil and division in Taiwan, from the ordinary people, all the way to the military. This would make it easier, and quicker for the PLA to reunify Taiwan by force. Speed is super important in modern warfare.
The surveys show about 1 in 10 people in Taiwan support reunification today.
If it becomes obvious that Taiwan will be conquered, is there any point in the Taiwanese fighting to the death?
That would be a trigger point for a coup or a negotiated ending, which results in some sort of Taiwanese autonomy.
And for those who can't stomach this situation, they're free to leave for the USA.
Anyway, back on topic now.
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Real insightful analysis there. Is that based on anything other then the ‘perceived wisdom’ of ‘USA best China worst!’
The key to modern warfare is air dominance. With the kind of offensive firepower the PLA has, and close proximity to the Mainland, the ROCAF hasn’t really got a chance.
Not only are they thoroughly outnumbered and outclassed in the air, the PLA could pretty much stop them from even getting into the air in the first place with constant bombardment of all ROCAF air bases.
So, just how well do you think it will go for ROCA forces trying to hold static defences positions in the face of PLAAF air dominance?
@Dante80
Think it through.
The PLA has air superiority over Taiwan, and can flood the airspace with surveillance aircraft.
Think medium sized Predator-type aircraft, down to handheld tactical drones.
When you combine that with automated image recognition algorithms, any Taiwanese military ground units will be spotted as soon as they move or fire, and therefore will be destroyed.
Taiwanese ground units could survive by hiding, like what the Serbian Army did in Kosovo.
But Taiwanese ground units don't have the option of staying hidden, because they have to engage the opposing ground units.
So the result is an Iraq or Afghanistan type campaign.
Therefore the key to a *winning* campaign is air superiority
Anyway, back on topic.
There are pro mainland or reunification faction in Taiwan, but they are in the minority and among older people. They are also about a million that live in the mainland nowadays. But most youngsters, don't consider themselves as Chinese due to the education policy / brainwashing.
Most commentators believe the window for peaceful reunification is gone. Hence 'wutong' or military reunification is the only possibility. I suppose the pro reunification faction will have useful role to play in the event of a 'wutong'.
Military force is the only and most viable option for unification.
"Taiwanese" is composed of 4 groups of people: Decedents of Fujianese fishermen/farmers, Mainland elites/military establishment that escaped with the KMT after the Chinese civil war, Japanese settlers, and Native islanders.
At the end of WW2 in 1945 there were 300,000 Japanese settlers that remained in Taiwan and were mostly middle class and up. Their numbers today would be over a million. The Japanese settlers were assimilated by Chiang Kai Shek's policies on the surface as they speak Mandarin have Han names. These people didn't think they were part of the Chinese political entity to start with despite the cultural assimilation that had occurred and is the main support base for Taiwan independence.
In case of military action against Taiwan by the PRC, it wouldn't surprise me if some politicians would seek refuge in Japan. Japan's role in Taiwan is often overlooked. Although Manchuria saw the influx of millions of Japanese settlers, they left after the war and the thousands of orphans that remained were adopted by the local Chinese. They were too young to form any political opinions and networks unlike the intact Japanese society that exists in Taiwan, only now its harder to detect due to assimilation efforts.
At the end of WW2 in 1945 there were 300,000 Japanese settlers that remained in Taiwan and were mostly middle class and up. Their numbers today would be over a million. The Japanese settlers were assimilated by Chiang Kai Shek's policies on the surface as they speak Mandarin have Han names. These people didn't think they were part of the Chinese political entity to start with despite the cultural assimilation that had occurred and is the main support base for Taiwan independence.
In case of military action against Taiwan by the PRC, it wouldn't surprise me if some politicians would seek refuge in Japan. Japan's role in Taiwan is often overlooked. Although Manchuria saw the influx of millions of Japanese settlers, they left after the war and the thousands of orphans that remained were adopted by the local Chinese. They were too young to form any political opinions and networks unlike the intact Japanese society that exists in Taiwan, only now its harder to detect due to assimilation efforts.
