China's SCS Strategy Thread

texx1

Junior Member
I agree that China should keep up the pressure. China can make this into an international incident rather than doing things along. China should play the same game as what everyone else is playing. Instead of doing all those things that you mentioned, China should formally complained to the international court and stuff like that, bring reporters to the area where the cables are cut. Show the world how unreliable Vietnam is.

China had the money and the influence to do it. Why not make use of that, rather than doing all of what you say, which will only ended up in deeper China threat, China unpeaceful rise that will again lead to lost of investment in China, militarizing Japan, etc etc that will only cause more pressure on China.

China doesn't need all her enemies surrounding her. She need friends too... even if it was not friends but at least not allies to her enemies... And that is a game China should play and not by playing irresponsible games as you have mentioned... whats with... "preventing others from developing into a developed nation." It is this type of language that actually fuel more on the threats of China to the entire world.

Bring this issue to international court from Chinese perspective would be akin to gambling at a casino and believing you will beat the house. Possible, but very unlikely. The current international system is set up by WWII victors which communist china was not a part of. China as a new rising power with the potential to upset the balance of current western centric international system, is not going to get a very fair treatment from the system that it poses a serious challenge to.

Bring reporters would also be meaningless as western media will dismiss anything that is contrary to their official position that China is a bully not playing by western rules, rules that China had no part in setting up. Anything from Chinese media is going to be dismissed out of hand as propaganda anyway so why even bother.

Given that Vietnam has started to crack down on anti-china protesters as its authoritarian government worries that protesters might turn on itself for corruption and impotence. China shouldn't do something too drastic like economic sanctions, or cutting off water as another member suggested. China should just keep increasing patrol around the rig as they say possession is nice-tenths of the law.
 
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joshuatree

Captain
According to Chinese Weibo, PLA has been deployed to Pingxiang (凭祥市), Guangxi, a city on the border of Vietnam. Let's hope this is nothing more than sabre rattling.

I rather not see it as sabre rattling but more of a precaution and providing a sense of security for folks that live along the border.



He also says Vietnam are sending boats to cut the undersea fibre cables (happened 3 times this month now), so he has to go do all the repairs, and each repair costs upwards of RMB500,000+ ($80,000+), ouch!

Maybe someone with more knowledge can inform us how Vietnam are cutting the cables - by sending divers?

I've also seen pictures of Vietnam inducting new patrol vessels with an extended/hardened bow (on pk defence I think), designed specifically for ramming - the Chinese coastguard fleet may start to struggle if those are inducted in large numbers. I think china should have something similar if Beijing insists on engaging in 'small stick diplomacy' of utilising only civilian/law enforcement vessels.

I think this is where China needs to learn how to use the media to its advantage. Show pics of the cable cuts, it would be evidence. If the Vietnamese know where the cables are, it's really not a state secret. Since your brother in law has first hand experience with repairing these cables, I think he would probably be the most qualified to describe how the cables are cut, assuming it's info he can discuss.



Are you using this logic and therefore agreeing that the Daoyutai is Japanese because Japan controlled them since 1895?

The better logic would be an actual official diplomatic note from the current Vietnamese govt acknowledging and respecting the territorial seas declared by China in 1958 which effectively means what pieces of land the Vietnamese acknowledge as Chinese territory. The note was not issued under the gun where China was conquering Vietnam unlike the Japanese "annexation" of Diaoyu in the midst of the First Sino Japanese War.


Look at all foreign factories got burned in Vietnam now, garment factories, furniture factory, shoes factory, steel mills(high pollution) those are low quality investors. They can move to ASEAN all they want do. and China actually wants to get rid of them too.

Don't know how you can effectively determine garment factories, furniture factories, shoe factories, and steel mills as low quality investors. Capital invested and people employed are great assets sought after by all countries. The industries you listed are not dubious ones like prostitution, drug dealing, conflict diamonds, etc etc. If you are referring to pollution, that has more to do with a country's environmental laws and their will to enforce it.

I get that you are upset with what the Vietnamese have done, some of their actions even leading to deaths. But the proposals you make are too extreme that they will backfire on China. You want to divide your enemies, not give them reason to unite.


Bring reporters would also be meaningless as western media will dismiss anything that is contrary to their official position that China is a bully not playing by western rules, rules that China had no part in setting up. Anything from Chinese media is going to be dismissed out of hand as propaganda anyway so why even bother.

Not entirely true. It would have been very helpful to have footage of the CCG warning the Vietnamese ships to stay out of the defensive perimeter of the rig and any further attempts to get into the zone will force the CCG to take defensive measures such as water cannons and nudging ships back outside of the perimeter.

You can also select media that are more neutral to help provide the Chinese side's POV on what's happening out in those waters. While entrenched Western media will dismiss it, the goal is not just to let them know, the goal is to let anyone out there watching know.
 

texx1

Junior Member
I rather not see it as sabre rattling but more of a precaution and providing a sense of security for folks that live along the border..

I am sure both reassuring Chinese citizens along the border and putting pressure on Vietnam with a showing of strength are reasons for this troop deployment.

Not entirely true. It would have been very helpful to have footage of the CCG warning the Vietnamese ships to stay out of the defensive perimeter of the rig and any further attempts to get into the zone will force the CCG to take defensive measures such as water cannons and nudging ships back outside of the perimeter.

You can also select media that are more neutral to help provide the Chinese side's POV on what's happening out in those waters. While entrenched Western media will dismiss it, the goal is not just to let them know, the goal is to let anyone out there watching know.

The footage of CCG warning Vietnamese ships off before actual confrontation would only matter for those who view the current development with an open mind. Unlike members on this forum, not many would actually go through the actual trouble of finding out more about it before taking a snap and uninformed position, which usually means to blame China.

As for media that are neutral to Chinese POV, they are not as influential as entrenched western media so they are less useful for letting people know what really happened. Not to mention, many would probably dismiss those media as not authoritative enough. The irony.

Don't get me wrong. I agree with your sentiment. I just don't see the point of doing something that is not very effective in changing the scripted narrative about China.
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
Look like you don't know who is the real enemy of China. Too bad.

Take a while and think. If the US cannot content China anymore and who is the nearest that US would sponsor to that will likely cause the most damage to China? Philippines? Vietnam? Or who? (not these two by the way.) Who is asking to be militarized? Who although having smaller amount of ships but are by the way qualitatively superior or equal to China at the moment? And who had one of the most professional standing army in this region other than China and Russia?

Japan? JSDF can't doesn't even have DF-21D, their subs program are minimal compare to China, and their current stealth fighter program is a nothing compare to the J-20 AND J-31.


Note this... other than the precious metals... what is the largest commodities that China exported that actually supported a large part of her economic. Can these commodities be source elsewhere by foreign customers?

Russia on the other hand had something that people wanted - GAS.

Anything that says "Made in China" plus VH-1 visas for Chinese brains (ALL western universities and R & D can't do without them).

Oh... and one more thing... you really really think that China is that secure internally? Think of Xinjiang and Tibet... Then think of Syria and Libya. If the rebels... however small in number are being sponsored and armed... even if they cannot deroot China... they sure as hell can cause massive headaches, damages and casualties to PRC.

How many planes had been hijacked by terrorist and hit a skyscraper in China lately? How many terrorist has been able to possess guns or explosives to do massive daily explosives and killings like in Iraq? Yeah, China so secured in that region that the ONLY available weapon the terrorist cowards can do with are knives.


Also... do I need to remind you... China is surrounded by lots of not-that-friendly countries?

China is also surrounded by friendly neighbors who are also not so friendly to the unruly neighbors. They won't go away there's always a way to neutralize them. China knew this, they've been doing this for thousands of years, nothing new.
 

rhino123

Pencil Pusher
VIP Professional
Bring this issue to international court from Chinese perspective would be akin to gambling at a casino and believing you will beat the house. Possible, but very unlikely. The current international system is set up by WWII victors which communist china was not a part of. China as a new rising power with the potential to upset the balance of current western centric international system, is not going to get a very fair treatment from the system that it poses a serious challenge to.

Bring reporters would also be meaningless as western media will dismiss anything that is contrary to their official position that China is a bully not playing by western rules, rules that China had no part in setting up. Anything from Chinese media is going to be dismissed out of hand as propaganda anyway so why even bother.

Given that Vietnam has started to crack down on anti-china protesters as its authoritarian government worries that protesters might turn on itself for corruption and impotence. China shouldn't do something too drastic like economic sanctions, or cutting off water as another member suggested. China should just keep increasing patrol around the rig as they say possession is nice-tenths of the law.

What you say is true and I never quite believe that the international courts are actually neutral. However, if China was to just do what BigWang had mentioned, then China will ultimately be the loser. Why? An act of war, one that is so obvious as in diverting of water from Vietnam etc etc, would definitely not bore well internationally.

Invite Western Reporters from western media with them, together with Chinese media rather than just Chinese media.
 

rhino123

Pencil Pusher
VIP Professional
Japan? JSDF can't doesn't even have DF-21D, their subs program are minimal compare to China, and their current stealth fighter program is a nothing compare to the J-20 AND J-31.

Yeah. And you have to ask yourself. Why? From what I see was that the Japanese cannot build all these program because of US. And if all the action of China had really, gotten so hard and the Americans are now not able to or felt it was too hard or non-profitable to do so... do you think they would not just let go of the leash that they have been holding all this time.

Think of it this way... US is a wall that contained Japan behind the wall. When the wall that is US, being lifted off...

(Anyway, that is too political and on the verge of going into a flame war, so I will stop here now.)

Anything that says "Made in China" plus VH-1 visas for Chinese brains (ALL western universities and R & D can't do without them).

Anything that is Made in China now... can it be sourced else where? as for the Chinese brains... most of them are no longer Chinese from China, they might be Chinese, but they certainly are not from China or was no longer part of China.

How many planes had been hijacked by terrorist and hit a skyscraper in China lately? How many terrorist has been able to possess guns or explosives to do massive daily explosives and killings like in Iraq? Yeah, China so secured in that region that the ONLY available weapon the terrorist cowards can do with are knives.

Not yet. Why? Most of the terrorists in China are still not being sponsored. Think of Libya and Syria... where does their arms coming from.


China is also surrounded by friendly neighbors who are also not so friendly to the unruly neighbors. They won't go away there's always a way to neutralize them. China knew this, they've been doing this for thousands of years, nothing new.

Yes... and why change the status quo? When China start acting all tough and hammering a country that is so much weaker militarily and economically... do you seriously think that those nations that are friendly to China would actually feel that safe?
 

A.Man

Major
A Different Perspective From The Confrontations

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Toasts Turn to Water Cannons as China, Vietnam Spar on High Seas


By Bloomberg News May 18, 2014 8:42 PM ET

Photographer: Oanh Ha/Bloomberg




An officer on Vietnamese Coast Guard vessel No. 8003 looks on as it is flanked by a... Read More

The crews from the Vietnamese and Chinese coast guards shook hands and took photos as they met last month, sharing platters of fruit and raising their glasses for a toast. Now, they are in a tense standoff in the South China Sea.

“The two sides were very happy and united,” Lt. Colonel Phan Duy Cuong, the operations assistant of Vietnam’s Coast Guard Command, said of the April 15 ceremony. “We toasted each other with wine. They went on our boat and we went on theirs.”

Ships No. 8003 and 2007 sailed alongside two Chinese coast guard vessels for three days in the Gulf of Tonkin. A month later, at least one of those Chinese boats has been spotted helping guard an oil rig that Vietnam is demanding be removed from contested waters about 140 miles (225 kilometers) off its coast, according to Cuong.

The dispute over the rig near the Paracel Islands reflects a renewed chill between the two Communist nations after efforts to draw them closer together, including a flurry of official visits last year. Both China and the U.S. have targeted Vietnam as a potential partner to bolster their influence in the region.

“We were working together just days before, but now there is a line dividing us,” Cuong said on board boat 8003, which carried a crew of 50 plus 100 live chickens in a pen on the stern. “I’m very sad.” While on the joint patrol in April, the boats together inspected Chinese and Vietnamese fishing boats.
Photographer: Oanh Ha/Bloomberg


Crew members on board Vietnamese Coast Guard vessel No. 8003 stand at the controls in... Read More


Water Cannons

Cuong has been assigned to boat 8003 since it left Hai Phong port May 5 to patrol the waters west of the Paracel Islands. Over three days last week, the ship was chased by the Chinese coast guard five times as it attempted to break through a perimeter around the rig. The Chinese ships got as close as 400 meters to the Vietnamese craft, blasting their horns and ordering it to retreat. Other ships were rammed, Cuong said. Both sides have said they used water cannons.

The cooling in ties is less about China picking a fight with Vietnam and more about it warning off the U.S., according to Tan See Seng, an associate professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.

“The reason for the schizophrenic quality of Chinese behavior, I suspect, has to do with what China thinks U.S. intention and strategy toward it might be,” Tan said by e-mail. “China’s big worry is the U.S. and its partners will block China’s access to strategic trade routes through the South China Sea.”.
Photographer: Jason Folkmanis/Bloomberg


A Mega Step Electronics factory is cordoned off following fire damage at the... Read More

China and Vietnam fought a border war in 1979, with China having forcibly taken the Paracel Islands from Vietnam five years earlier. In 1988, a Chinese naval attack in the Spratly Islands, which Vietnam also lays claims to, killed 64 Vietnamese border guards as China seized seven atolls. In 2007, Chinese naval patrol vessels fired on a Vietnamese fishing boat, killing one sailor.

‘City’ Lights

Out on the South China Sea last week, boat 8003’s radar screen showed about 60 Chinese ships facing off against half a dozen Vietnamese boats. Cuong’s ship got within three nautical miles of the oil rig on May 6 before being turned away and hasn’t been that close since.

“The first day we got there we saw all these ships turn on their lights,” said Bui Son, a crew member in charge of artillery. “It looked like a city. We were so surprised to see such a heavy presence of Chinese ships in Vietnam’s territorial waters. We were shocked.”

As he spoke, in the distance the rig rose from the sea like a giant tower, with a platform on a red base holding several cranes. At night it glows and can be seen as far away as 12 nautical miles.

Low-flying Aircraft

The crew of boat 8003 has seen two Chinese missile-launching ships in the area, while Chinese aircraft have flown over at low altitude. Vietnam state media reported a Chinese submarine in the area.

Colonel Luu Tien Thang, deputy director of the political division of the Coast Guard Command, said Vietnam has coast guard and fishing surveillance craft in the vicinity of the rig.

“We do not use the navy to show our willingness to resolve this peacefully,” he said on May 15 on boat 8003. “If we deployed the navy, it would escalate the situation.”

Anti-China protests in Vietnam last week morphed into attacks on factories operated by companies from Taiwan and Singapore, leaving two Chinese dead and scores of businesses damaged. That prompted Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung to instruct provincial governments and security forces to take “quick actions” to stop the violence and prevent protests.

China said yesterday it was sending five ships to Vietnam to evacuate its citizens, with more than 3,000 Chinese nationals leaving as of May 17.

China’s ‘Family’

Things had appeared on a more positive footing last year, as China’s President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang made a series of visits to Southeast Asian nations, pledging investment and bolstering trade ties. Xi said in October “the Asia-Pacific is a big family and China is a member of this family.”

Vietnam and China last June set up a hot-line between their leaders, and expanded a 2006 agreement to jointly explore for oil in the Gulf of Tonkin. Li visited Vietnam in October, where he and Dung pledged to boost “political trust,” signing a memorandum of understanding for a cross-border economic cooperation zone and agreeing to open trade promotion offices.

Vietnam President Truong Tan Sang visited Beijing last June, where he had a three-hour meeting with Xi and they agreed to push “pragmatic cooperation” on areas such as defense, the official Xinhua News Agency reported.

China says the rig is in its territorial waters, and has accused Vietnam of ramming its ships. The attacks on workers in Vietnam prompted Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying on May 15 to criticize the Vietnamese government for “indulgence and connivance toward domestic anti-China forces and criminals.”

‘Normal Behavior’

The rig’s presence off Vietnam’s coast is “very normal behavior,” General Fang Fenghui, chief of the People’s Liberation Army General Staff, said in the U.S. on May 15. Vietnam dispatched ships to disrupt the drilling operations, “and that’s something we aren’t able to accept,” he said.

China’s growing self-confidence on the international stage, coupled with Xi’s “tough” style, means the relationship with Vietnam could stay tense, according to Arthur Ding, a research fellow at the China politics division of the Institute of International Relations in Taipei.

“I don’t think you’re going to see it escalate into a war,” Ding said by phone. “China and Vietnam are still self-restrained.”

While Vietnam has confronted China in the waters it “also realizes that it’s quite impossible to confront China in a very sustainable way,” he said. “China has become the No. 2 power.”

Fading Friendship

Out on boat 8003, Son said he’s not afraid of the larger Chinese ships.

“What I do worry about is that our friendship is fading and we are losing trust in each other,” he said. “That’s the bigger loss for the two countries.”

“When we said goodbye, we promised we’d see each other again. Now we see each other in this very difficult situation.”

To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story: K. Oanh Ha in Hanoi at [email protected]

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Rosalind Mathieson at [email protected] Neil Western
 

Lezt

Junior Member
Japan? JSDF can't doesn't even have DF-21D, their subs program are minimal compare to China, and their current stealth fighter program is a nothing compare to the J-20 AND J-31.
It is not a question of purely hardware; the DF-21D is an impressive achievement, but it doesn't automatically void navies. Similarly, if push come to shove, there easily could be a squadron of F22 stationed in Okinawa -> literally in a weeks time.

What Rhino is eluding to is, there are nations which can severely hamper the rise of China with their military and economy; why give them more ammunition? thats not just Japan too, the USA is also a pacific nation

小不忍则乱大谋

Anything that says "Made in China" plus VH-1 visas for Chinese brains (ALL western universities and R & D can't do without them).
Why do you thing Western University cannot survive without Chinese Brains? China's R&D did not autofail because the soviet advisors left?

China have a lot of genius minds, just like the west have a lot of genius minds -> and so does India and Russia; where china have more in comparison is (and by a lesser extent India), they have a lot of brilliant minds that came through hard work.

Having these brilliant people do the legwork is great; take them away, it doesn't mean that the genius cannot innovate and continue.

What I have said is ofcourse a simplification.

How many planes had been hijacked by terrorist and hit a skyscraper in China lately? How many terrorist has been able to possess guns or explosives to do massive daily explosives and killings like in Iraq? Yeah, China so secured in that region that the ONLY available weapon the terrorist cowards can do with are knives.
I don't think that is anything to be proud of... the boston marathon bombing killed 3 and injured 264; kunming knife attack -> 29 dead, 140 injured.

The mantra really is, it doesn't matter if it is knifes or explosives, it is still deadly.


China is also surrounded by friendly neighbors who are also not so friendly to the unruly neighbors. They won't go away there's always a way to neutralize them. China knew this, they've been doing this for thousands of years, nothing new.
 

texx1

Junior Member
What you say is true and I never quite believe that the international courts are actually neutral. However, if China was to just do what BigWang had mentioned, then China will ultimately be the loser. Why? An act of war, one that is so obvious as in diverting of water from Vietnam etc etc, would definitely not bore well internationally.

Invite Western Reporters from western media with them, together with Chinese media rather than just Chinese media.

As I pointed out in my initial reply Joshuatree, diverting water or launching economic sanctions on Vietnam per Bigwang's suggestion would be an overreaction to what is currently taking place in the South China Sea. Vietnamese government hasn't committed any overt aggressive acts such as trying to capture/board/damage the rig, confiscating Chinese assets or expulsing Chinese citizens. As of now, there is no need for China to escalate to that extent.

Inviting western reporters from western media is not going to change the anti-china narrative much. I still remember during the 2008 Beijing Olympics where western reporters were invited, there was a great deal of disproportional negative reporting about China in the western media such as human rights issues, air pollutions, displaced people due to venue constructions, whether China deserved the Olympic. It was hard to find an article about the Beijing Olympics without some unrelated criticism sprinkled in. And that was reporting about a sport's event, not a territorial dispute.
 
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AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
Not sure if these are MBTs heading to the border. Looks like bare bones T-99s from the one with the front exposed.

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Interesting I don't see much news about this on TV here in the US. It's all in the printed media and they're reserved about reports on how many Chinese were killed since initially were 16 killed and now it's 16 critically injured and one death. And we know it's not because the media is being responsible.
 
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