China's SCS Strategy Thread

[TerraN_EmpirE]

Mexico is hardly a power that could in any way help China in the event of a Pacific Conflict.. Other then location There is nothing to Gain on either side.
First The Mexican Economy has blossomed under the current NAFTA arrangement. and As a Nation it's actually more likely to profit from a Breakdown of US Sino Economic relations. Mexican labor is actually Cheaper then Chinese these days, Unless your a PRC owned Company.

Second The Mexican military is constructed for internal disputes, and cant hold a candle to the Us military. The Texas and California National guards could wipe the floor with the Mexican Army, the Arizona National Air Guard would have Air supremacy in a few minutes, the Coast guard would have sea dominance and the New Mexican National guard could be held in reserve.

So your Mexican treaty would be a flight of Fancy at best.

 

[joshuatree]

As much as I agree with your approach and sentiment. A diplomatic note is good ammunition but is not a treaty. Just like the ROC diplomatic note that thanked japan for saving chinese fishermen in 1920 refering to the daoyuitai as Japanese territory.

Actually there is a significant difference between the two. There is the Second Sino-Japanese War which became a part of WW2 and Japan was a loser in that conflict. She relinquished conquered territory and in the Treaty of Peace and Friendship between Japan and PROC, Japan agrees to Article 8 of Potsdam which specifically points to the terms of the Cairo Declaration in which that document stipulates Japan relinquished all territory stolen from the Chinese.

Nothing of such significance occurred between Vietnam and China after the 1958 diplomatic note to undermine it.

 

[Lezt]

ROC is the loser of the Chinese civil war, the communists Chinese might not think so and be so kind to Japan.

I agree with you; but logically, ROC was the legal Chinese entity back in the day, so its words does have weight. It depends on how people view national succession -> and therefore there is always room for debate as there is no rule.

What if China have a treaty with Mexico? Strange, with such a large country and having hegemonic ambition, why China don't go around making treaties?

Well, it depends on the tradition. Historically, China does not make equal alliances with other states like, Korea, Manchu, Japan, Malay, etc. all were only alliance of necessity and/or tribute obligations as per the invasion of Korea by Japan.

Alliances were really a Western construct, the Greek allies, the Roman Allies and so on. Even the near east system of kings and slave kings are different -> hence modern middle eastern diplomacy is so different to western diplomacy as well.

Actually there is a significant difference between the two. There is the Second Sino-Japanese War which became a part of WW2 and Japan was a loser in that conflict. She relinquished conquered territory and in the Treaty of Peace and Friendship between Japan and PROC, Japan agrees to Article 8 of Potsdam which specifically points to the terms of the Cairo Declaration in which that document stipulates Japan relinquished all territory stolen from the Chinese.

Nothing of such significance occurred between Vietnam and China after the 1958 diplomatic note to undermine it.

Yes, but that is something else. The fact I was pointing out is that diplomatic notes are not treaties. The Potsdam declaration is a treaty. So yes, the treaty should be honored. But the issue was about the validity of the diplomatic note; i.e. a diplomatic note is basically meaningless.

 

[joshuatree]

Yes, but that is something else. The fact I was pointing out is that diplomatic notes are not treaties. The Potsdam declaration is a treaty. So yes, the treaty should be honored. But the issue was about the validity of the diplomatic note; i.e. a diplomatic note is basically meaningless.

It's an issue with Vietnam honoring their own words or not. Nevertheless, it's additional evidence that backs China's claim to the Paracels among other facts such as ROC regaining the Paracels after WW2 in 1946 and China actually occupying the eastern side of the Paracels even before the battle in 1974, something most Western articles omit to create an incorrect image that China simply came in and took all those islands. It's also a fact the Vietnamese fired the first shot in that battle.

But I do appreciate your devil's advocate POV, I think this particular "dispute" is far more clean cut and indisputable compared to some of the other areas of contention in the SCS.

 

[nemo]

According to Chinese Weibo, PLA has been deployed to Pingxiang (凭祥市), Guangxi, a city on the border of Vietnam. Let's hope this is nothing more than sabre rattling.

My take of the situation is that the troops are there not to threaten Vietnam but to prevent another Ukraine by the Vietnamese opposition. This is merely my own speculation, so do your own research to form your own opinion.



There is a rumor that the Vietnamese riots are orchestrated by the opposition party fronting for Japanese (and very likely US). I find it curious that the majority of the factories destroyed are Taiwanese, in Southern Vietnam, instead of Chinese, in the Northern Vietnam (something like 100 Taiwanese to 15 Chinese). It is much less strange if you know Taiwanese are major competitor to Japanese -- same quality of product, but cheaper. Hence they are using the riots to damage their business competitor, while using the upheaval to damage the ruling Vietnamese communist party, and possibly forcing a coup like Ukraine. Hence the Chinese troops are deployed to the border, but are NOT publicized, because the intention is NOT to force Vietnam to back down, but to support the Vietnamese communist party if coup occurs.

 

[Equation]

All I wanted to say is...

Know who is China's main enemy.

Also... I didn't mention anything about China needing to make everybody feel safe, I think you misunderstand me. I meant, if China do take drastic action (like war or whatever) to countries like Vietnam, just to punish them for incident as small as cutting the optic cable... then what will those countries that are friendly to China actually feel? And there is a high percentage that these countries will turn their back and fall into the arms of China's enemy.

Ok than what action should China take to STOP Vietnam from cutting the optic cable (since that also qualifies as a drastic action in itself) when dialogue don't seem to work? Actions speaks louder than words in this case, so China has no choice but to respond to protect their territory. The percentage you're talking about these so called countries turning their backs on China has no merits because there's no proof, it's just an invention. The whole ASEAN countries are NOT on tip toes with a growing China, that's just a western perception and ruse to paint China in a bad and unfair light to stir up trouble in the region.

 

[perfume]

Quick update from my contact:

One of the 'Navy boss' is visiting the paracels accompanied by a small flotilla of 4 LSTs (don't know if loaded) with him. Now there are a number of possible reasons for why they're doing this, I will leave it to you guys to make the analysis.

Because the big brass came in, my brother in law and his colleagues now have to sleep on cardboards in the storage room! LOL tough times.

 

[Equation]

Quick update from my contact:
Because the big brass came in, my brother in law and his colleagues now have to sleep on cardboards in the storage room! LOL tough times.

Weapons and equipment storage room or food storage room? If its food and he's sleeping near by a refrigerator area, he should be cooler I assume.

 

[TerraN_EmpirE]

Only if he was sleeping in the Refrigerator, Out side of it is hotter

 

[perfume]

He is a civilian and has no access to military facilities/weapons.

But because infrastructure and facilities on these small islands are extremely limited, civilians and military personnel share the same accommodation. He says the military always has the priority, especially if the Navy boss comes in - 'everyone else can go sleep on the floor~'