China's SCS Strategy Thread

[advill]

I thought this guy is the designated NSC chief . He sound to be moderate and intelligent. MIchael Flyn

Trump and his new guy randy forbes want to build 350 new ships for Navy to counter china. 350?

This US President-designate can intend to build as many ships as he wants (his priority to give jobs to American unemployed workers). But (1) Who does he want to confront - Russia or China or Iran? (2) Does he & his designated Defence Secretary & NSC chief realise how long it would take to build --- 350 new hi-tech ships? (3) Has the US got the budget for his proposed defence spending, infrastructure development, new health-care proposals etc. etc.? - Trillions of US $ bonds were bought by China; and a few other countries have big investments in the US. (4) Why is he against free trade with all his rhetoric against North American Free Trade Agreement and with China and perhaps others too? It could he is all bluster than blast - we will observe the coming months.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

I thought this documentary is interesting. When they talk about softpower in the west , this normally mean Holywood, entertainment, fad, gadget etc.
But in Asia it is about human interaction, relation built over time.
In 1967 Fleeing American bomb and incursion into Laos,China evacuate thousand of Laotian children across the border and provide them with schooling,boarding, health and other necessities. Many of them live in China until adolescent.

Most of them return to Laos after the war end and now they are adult and in important position all through Laotian government and society
It is a moving documentary for both the ex student and their teacher

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[Blackstone]

Good to see the PRC continues its Mandate of Heaven responsibility to recover lost Chinese territory. It'd be nice to see China send patrol ships and planes every single day until the stolen territory is returned. I also hope Beijing lodges diplomatic protests in Tokyo whenever Japanese ships enter Diaoyu territorial waters.

There are two factual errors in the article. The title of the article gives readers an impression Japan also considers Diaoyu isles disputed, whereas official Japanese position is there's no dispute and Japan owns it outright. The second error is claiming the Permanent Arbitration Court as "UN-backed," when the UN said just the opposite. Other than the two glaring but probably honest mistakes, the article is neutral and balanced.

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Chinese coast guard vessels sailed into territorial waters around disputed islands in the East China Sea on Saturday, Japan's coast guard said, marking the second such incident in a week.

The four ships entered the waters surrounding the island chain, controlled by Japan and known as Senkaku in Japanese and Diaoyu in China, at around 10:30 am (0130 GMT) and left within two hours, according to the coast guard.

A similar incident last Sunday prompted Tokyo to lodge a complaint with China's foreign ministry through its embassy in Beijing, saying the uninhabited islets are "an inherent territory of Japan".

Japan has made dozens of protests through diplomatic channels this year over what it says have been more than 30 days of intrusions by Chinese vessels in the contested waters.

The two countries have been locked in a long-running dispute over the islands, which are believed to harbour vast natural resources below their seabed, with China claiming them as its own.

Beijing is also involved in maritime disputes in the South China Sea. It asserts sovereignty over most of the area despite rival partial claims by the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, Taiwan and Vietnam.

A UN-backed tribunal in July ruled that Beijing's claims were invalid.

 

[Jura The idiot]

according to, ehm, The National Interest (dated November 11, 2016)
China Can Have the Philippines

Ever since Douglas MacArthur

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to the island of Leyte on October 20, 1944, the Philippines has been considered a loyal U.S. ally. In 1947, both countries signed an agreement that granted the United States the right to use military bases in the Philippines. Even after rising anti-American sentiment in the 1980s led to the U.S. military

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from Clark Air Base and the Subic Bay naval base in 1992, both countries remained close. And in 2014, the United States and the Philippines negotiated an Enhance Defense Cooperation Agreement that gives U.S. forces access to certain military facilities.

Indeed, the 1951

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is still in effect today. But in October, Rodrigo Duterte, president of the Philippines,

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his “separation” from the United States in favor of closer ties to China.

So what’s a superpower to do?

In his farewell address, George Washington

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us to “steer clear of permanent alliance.” Similarly, in his first inaugural address, Thomas Jefferson

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“entangling alliances with none.” So rather than insist that the U.S. alliance with the Philippines is “

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” or “

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,” as Secretary of Defense Ash Carter and Secretary of State John Kerry respectively put it, this is a perfect opportunity for Washington to disentangle itself.

To begin, the Mutual Defense Treaty really isn’t mutual. It’s more like a one-way treaty because the United States doesn’t need the Philippines to be able to defend America. The U.S. military is the most powerful and technologically advanced in the world—not to mention a highly capable strategic nuclear deterrent. Moreover, the United States sits in a relatively secure geostrategic position with friendly neighbors to its north and south and two vast oceans to its east and west.

On the other hand, Manila is highly dependent on the U.S. military since the Philippine military is largely focused on internal security.

Philippine defense spending is only about 1 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP). But the Philippines has a large enough economy to be able to spend more on its own defense if it feels threatened by external actors. And if Vietnam—a country with a smaller economy—can spend more on defense than the Philippines in actual expenditures and percent of GDP, the Philippines can and should spend more to protect itself. It’s not the responsibility of the American taxpayer.

Moreover, what the Philippines really wants the United States to do is confront China over territorial claims over Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea.

From a national-security standpoint, control of Scarborough Shoal does not pose a direct military threat to the U.S. homeland, which is some six thousand miles away. So there is no reason for the United States to risk war with China over it on behalf of the Philippines in a dispute over fishing rights.

The primary U.S. interest is that the sea-lanes remain open and unimpeded for the $5 trillion in commerce that flows through the South China Sea. While there is reason for some concern, Beijing has—so far—not demonstrated that it intends to close the South China Sea to free trade. And it’s important to remember that America is China’s second largest trading partner (after the European Union), so it would be economically risky for the Chinese to imperil those trading relationships.

The Philippines knows it’s no match for the Chinese military. So, instead of continued dispute over fishing rights in Scarborough Shoal, it makes sense for Duterte to find some sort of resolution with China. But that doesn’t exclude the Philippines from having relationships with the United States (or any other country) that are also considered mutually beneficial.

Just because Duterte wants to move closer to China over Scarborough Shoal doesn’t mean reducing or cutting off the nearly $20 billion in trade between Washington and Manila. Nor is it a reason to reduce or cut off more than $5 billion in foreign direct investment by the United States and other countries. Indeed, Duterte has since

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, “It's not a severance of ties. What I mean was a separation of foreign policy.”

So if President Duterte wants to take matters into his own hands to ease tensions with China, Washington should let him. After all, it’s in Manila’s self-interest for him to do so and it does not represent a direct threat to America. It’s a false dichotomy to assert that the Philippines must be tied only to either the United States or China. And Washington shouldn’t insist that its relationship with the Philippines exclude Manila from having any relationship with Beijing. The United States itself has relationships with both.

A more normal and rational relationship is one that understands and recognizes overlapping shared interests, but also respects separate self-interests—as long as those divergent interests do not represent a direct threat to U.S. national security.

The United States might have to give up on having permanent bases in the Philippines, but previously losing Clark Air Base and the Subic Bay naval base for two decades did not make it any less of a superpower. Washington has an opportunity to distance itself from an obsolete security alliance that does not make America any more secure—all the while, letting the Philippines take responsibility for its own future.

source:

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[sanblvd]

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More bit and pieces of information trickle out, this is very close to what I expected, Trump will make some show of force by sending ships close to those islands every once in a while, but he won't push China to its limits.

He campaign on a domestic policy by bring over jobs and economic recovery, and I think if China and US cooperate together, both side can benefit.

 

[Air Force Brat]

according to, ehm, The National Interest (dated November 11, 2016)
China Can Have the Philippines

source:

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The Phillipines, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, all have a vein of rebellious sentiment toward the United States, but the truth is that their and our security are as intertwined as are the fibers of a fine oriental rug. Now I believe Duterte very specifically does NOT trust or like Barack Obama nor his underproxy, Hillary Rodham Clinton. In fact I'm rather certain that Duterte was sending us all a message, if Hillary Rodham Clinton were elected President, that he would lead his country to disengage from the United States at the highest strategic level.

Now that Donald Trump has been elected, our closest allies have been reassured, as have Russia and China that America's straight shooting, strait talking policy will be restored. Mr. Trump has proven that he is not easily influenced by petty criticisms or protests from the left, and he is restoring the strong "center right core, eliminating the massive left wing Obamacare healthcare takeover, and restoring the finest medical system on the planet to its former excellence, that alone will free of massive amounts of capital and energize business to return to productivity.

Mr. Obama has no doubt talked down to our allies and lectured them in the same condescending manner that he spoke of and to the "bitter clingers". At the same time he emboldened our enemies with his feckless handling of real security threats. Europe is suffering from an invasion of refugees from the Arab states thanks to HRC and BHO's failed mid-East policy..

Israel and Great Britain have been encouraged by Mr. Trump's election, and he will not only strengthen our commitment to them, he will meet Mr. Xi and Mr. Putin in the middle....As to our failed Pacific Pivot, he will make the strategic interest of the United States and our allies very clear, while at the same time trying to recognize that China and Russia should be in our Strategic inner circle as well. We all have mutual interests, and we do in fact have everything to gain from a strong trilateral engagement. I believe that both Russia and China have indeed been spooked by BHO and Hillary Rodham Clinton, weak as they were, they were also very unstable and unpredictable??

 

[Equation]

The Phillipines, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, all have a vein of rebellious sentiment toward the United States, but the truth is that their and our security are as intertwined as are the fibers of a fine oriental rug. Now I believe Duterte very specifically does NOT trust or like Barack Obama nor his underproxy, Hillary Rodham Clinton. In fact I'm rather certain that Duterte was sending us all a message, if Hillary Rodham Clinton were elected President, that he would lead his country to disengage from the United States at the highest strategic level.

Now that Donald Trump has been elected, our closest allies have been reassured, as have Russia and China that America's straight shooting, strait talking policy will be restored. Mr. Trump has proven that he is not easily influenced by petty criticisms or protests from the left, and he is restoring the strong "center right core, eliminating the massive left wing Obamacare healthcare takeover, and restoring the finest medical system on the planet to its former excellence, that alone will free of massive amounts of capital and energize business to return to productivity.

Mr. Obama has no doubt talked down to our allies and lectured them in the same condescending manner that he spoke of and to the "bitter clingers". At the same time he emboldened our enemies with his feckless handling of real security threats. Europe is suffering from an invasion of refugees from the Arab states thanks to HRC and BHO's failed mid-East policy..

Israel and Great Britain have been encouraged by Mr. Trump's election, and he will not only strengthen our commitment to them, he will meet Mr. Xi and Mr. Putin in the middle....As to our failed Pacific Pivot, he will make the strategic interest of the United States and our allies very clear, while at the same time trying to recognize that China and Russia should be in our Strategic inner circle as well. We all have mutual interests, and we do in fact have everything to gain from a strong trilateral engagement. I believe that both Russia and China have indeed been spooked by BHO and Hillary Rodham Clinton, weak as they were, they were also very unstable and unpredictable??

The world has change, the old days of where the Good Ole Boys "leading the world" are gone, let it go bro, Trump will NOT make a lick of difference. He's a showmanship first, businessman second, and a misogynist racist third. You can't blame all of the misfortunes on the "liberals" when the religious institutions and their right wing nutters are at fault as well for insisting the world cave into their values or else?

 

[Equation]

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More bit and pieces of information trickle out, this is very close to what I expected, Trump will make some show of force by sending ships close to those islands every once in a while, but he won't push China to its limits.

He campaign on a domestic policy by bring over jobs and economic recovery, and I think if China and US cooperate together, both side can benefit.

I doubt it, the US needs to fix it houses first instead of conveniently blaming on China or Mexico for those "job loses". The elite establishments doesn't care about the real relationships between China and the US just whatever it takes to keep them in power and rich.

 

[AssassinsMace]

The problem with Trump and what he's been saying for decades is he thinks the US doesn't need anyone. He thinks American power and influence are natural. The fact is US power and influence all comes from money and buying influence with that money. We wouldn't be seeing news articles today pointing to China's checkbook diplomacy beating the US if money weren't at the heart of it. If American values are much more valuable and what the world yearns for, China's checkbook diplomacy would make no headway. If Trump follows his campaign platform, he's going to drive allies away. And I'm not talking about Europe. My bet is the right-wing are going to rise in Europe. The West was so shocked by Duterte because they've become so spoiled that they're dependent on others to do their dirty work for them. If they're dependent on small less powerful countries like the Philippines that can ruin all their plans, power and influence is standing on a weak foundation. Trump is more likely going to push other countries to do the US's bidding and those countries are more likely to turn away. What Americans haven't been told is US power and influence comes at a high price. It doesn't come natural like they believe. That's why Saudi Arabia skates regardless to their links to terrorism. That's why the US is still involved in the Middle East despite being energy independent. Oil is a strategic resource the world needs. Being energy independent gets the US no power and influence there. Outsourcing and trade deficits are also the grand sacrifice Americans must make for US power and influence. The problem is even the US doesn't have enough money to make everyone they need in the world happy. That's where the weakness lies.

 

[sanblvd]

The world has change, the old days of where the Good Ole Boys "leading the world" are gone, let it go bro, Trump will NOT make a lick of difference. He's a showmanship first, businessman second, and a misogynist racist third. You can't blame all of the misfortunes on the "liberals" when the religious institutions and their right wing nutters are at fault as well for insisting the world cave into their values or else?

I would not underestimate Trump just yet. He didn't build a milti billion dollar empire if that is only his traits. His company have business in over 500 ventures, and he know how to structure them to get the most from the success, and isolate the losses.

Nor its only good luck that he beat 20 well qualified people to became president, he is a showman, yes, but he demonstrated extraordinary ability in gauging human nature which few people have.

Say what you will about him, he does have better instinct than Hillary, and when you look at his life, he is a hustler, he does work hard and he does work ruthless to get what he wants. Maybe he is the person that America needs at this very moment in its history.

Oh btw, don't pay too much attention to his personality faults, they are all there yes, but its a campaign strategy by the democrats to make him look like a monster, and equally it was a campaign strategy from Republicans to make Hillary into a corrupt politician.

In the end Monster vs Crook.... the monster won. But monster is mostly tied to his personal flaws, and some of the best US presidents were no angel in their private lives.