I think Trump's election would be a huge game changer to SCS situation, this is mostly because he don't really have any opinion about it not long ago, I won't be surprised if he only learn about the situation few month ago.
All of the major media think there is 90%+ he will lose right before the poll closes, so no one bother trying to educate him about SCS. So right now I can see all of the traditional politicians/diplomats/generals will try to convince him to continue the course, as well as leaders from Asia pacific will pressure him to do the same. I just read that Abe request to meet with him privately, no double to get him on board to Japan's view.
So no one knows what he will do, the only thing we can go on is his personalty. From his past speeches, he is an nativist, America economic interest first, he feels we spend too much money and effort all over the world, which is so complex that they in the end, does not serve the best interest for the nation. He even said Japan, Saudi should have their own nukes before he walk it back.
he also is a bit of isolationist, he don't have any ideology, one time he consider his social view more in line with the democrats. He don't have any hardcore ideology belief like Reagan towards communism, or Hillary towards China or Russia. So I see his more pragmatic person, making decisions purely base on cost and benefit, rather than what he held in his belief/religion.
3rd, the reason he won the election I think its because he spoke to the people who got left over by the de-industrialization in US, the middle class who no longer enjoy the standard of living as before, and I think he really mean it when he said he will help them. So he will be a much more domestic policy president then Hillary.
All 3 factors above will help China, as his instinct is to pull back from US's many obligations and entanglement .
On the other hand, he is a person who think very highly of himself, of his instinct, his own ability, but... he have a very bruised ego. He very much cares what other people think of him. And this is one of the main drive that drives him to today, he is in the game to show everyone wrong, he is in the game to get respect from the people that look down on him. Obama's 2011 mocking of him played a huge role for today.
This means, he will receive tremendous amount of peer pressure from he existing political elites to continue US's existing foreign policy course, and I would not underestimate this pressure to win out in the end, that he will continue Obama's Asia strategy to continue to pressure China.
In the end, I personally predicts that he will not totally change US policy on the SCS, but he will not be as committed as Hillary or Obama, he pay lip services to the political elites, but he won't provoke China on this issue. He will be much more likely to privately negotiate with Chinese elites on some kind of economy/trade comprise, while at same time, give China more room to in the SCS, I predict he will draw a red line which he think China must not cross, and I think this red line will actually be acceptable for Chinese leadership as well as long as he is the president.
All of the major media think there is 90%+ he will lose right before the poll closes, so no one bother trying to educate him about SCS. So right now I can see all of the traditional politicians/diplomats/generals will try to convince him to continue the course, as well as leaders from Asia pacific will pressure him to do the same. I just read that Abe request to meet with him privately, no double to get him on board to Japan's view.
So no one knows what he will do, the only thing we can go on is his personalty. From his past speeches, he is an nativist, America economic interest first, he feels we spend too much money and effort all over the world, which is so complex that they in the end, does not serve the best interest for the nation. He even said Japan, Saudi should have their own nukes before he walk it back.
he also is a bit of isolationist, he don't have any ideology, one time he consider his social view more in line with the democrats. He don't have any hardcore ideology belief like Reagan towards communism, or Hillary towards China or Russia. So I see his more pragmatic person, making decisions purely base on cost and benefit, rather than what he held in his belief/religion.
3rd, the reason he won the election I think its because he spoke to the people who got left over by the de-industrialization in US, the middle class who no longer enjoy the standard of living as before, and I think he really mean it when he said he will help them. So he will be a much more domestic policy president then Hillary.
All 3 factors above will help China, as his instinct is to pull back from US's many obligations and entanglement .
On the other hand, he is a person who think very highly of himself, of his instinct, his own ability, but... he have a very bruised ego. He very much cares what other people think of him. And this is one of the main drive that drives him to today, he is in the game to show everyone wrong, he is in the game to get respect from the people that look down on him. Obama's 2011 mocking of him played a huge role for today.
This means, he will receive tremendous amount of peer pressure from he existing political elites to continue US's existing foreign policy course, and I would not underestimate this pressure to win out in the end, that he will continue Obama's Asia strategy to continue to pressure China.
In the end, I personally predicts that he will not totally change US policy on the SCS, but he will not be as committed as Hillary or Obama, he pay lip services to the political elites, but he won't provoke China on this issue. He will be much more likely to privately negotiate with Chinese elites on some kind of economy/trade comprise, while at same time, give China more room to in the SCS, I predict he will draw a red line which he think China must not cross, and I think this red line will actually be acceptable for Chinese leadership as well as long as he is the president.
