China's SCS Strategy Thread

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Singapore better watch out!. If they are not cautious with their support of pivot, they might be at the receiving end of China own pivot to Malaysia
Plan is now afoot to developed Malacca port and if China mad enough they might built the long talked Kra canal in Thailand kra isthmus
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Malacca harbour plan raises questions about China's strategic aims
An artist's impression of the Melaka Gateway joint venture, which is part of a wider port alliance between Kuala Lumpur and Beijing to increase bilateral trade and boost shipping and logistics along China's Maritime Silk Road.PHOTO: MELAKA GATEWAY
Published
Nov 14, 2016, 5:00 am SGT
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Malaysia Correspondent In Kuala Lumpur


A RM43 billion (S$14 billion) harbour being developed in Malacca aims to overtake Singapore as the largest port in the region, but questions are being raised about the need for the added capacity and whether China's eager participation has to do with good business or its crucial strategic interests in the Malacca Strait.

For China, not only does most of its trade pass through the Malacca Strait, but so does up to 80 per cent of its energy needs. This prompted then President Hu Jintao to make the "Malacca Dilemma" a key strategic issue as far back as 2003.

"There is the strategic element of the Malacca Strait. It always starts with an economic presence, which can develop into a naval one, because China will be obliged to ensure the safe passage of its commercial ships," said Dr Johan Saravanamuttu of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, who studies the Malaysia-China relationship.

.
The Melaka Gateway joint venture is part of a wider port alliance between Kuala Lumpur and Beijing to increase bilateral trade and boost shipping and logistics along China's much-vaunted Maritime Silk Road.

Chinese firm Guangxi Beibu International Port Group already owns 40 per cent of Kuantan port, which faces the disputed waters of the South China Sea, and 49 per cent of the Kuantan Industrial Park in Pahang, the home state of Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak.


The Malaysian authorities are talking up the game-changing Melaka Gateway deal between little-known KAJ Developments and energy giant PowerChina International, which will form a joint venture and spend RM30 billion to reclaim three islands off Malacca's coast. The entire Gateway development will be completed in 2025 but the deep-sea port is expected to be ready by 2019. The Malaysian government hopes to attract the bulk of 100,000 vessels, most of them Chinese, that ply the Malacca Strait annually.

st_20161114_port14_2740099.jpg


Some industry players have expressed concern about the cannibalising of existing ports along the strait, especially in the light of Singapore's own port expansion.

Though the Malaysian government has said a new port is needed because Klang, the country's most important port, will be full by 2020, studies appear to show otherwise.

A World Bank study commissioned by the government last year showed a new port on Malaysia's west coast is not necessary, as existing facilities have yet to reach capacity, according to sources. Both operators at Port Klang - Westports and MMC - have also made expansion proposals that would double the port's capacity, the sources added.

"Because there seems to be no logic to the Melaka deal, many are questioning if this has more to do with military rather than commercial interests," a logistics player told The Straits Times.

Sources also said the reclaimed islands would be given freehold status and the port granted a 99-year concession - both rare and generous terms. Melaka Gateway did not respond to a request for comment.

China's military presence around Malaysian waters has increased significantly since last year. In September last year, all three branches of the Chinese armed forces took part in a six-day joint exercise on "disaster relief" in the Malacca Strait.

China has also gained access to Kota Kinabalu, a crucial dock in Sabah close to the disputed Spratly Islands, where Beijing's construction activities have been a source of diplomatic strife in the region.

A former port authority chief noted that China has made moves to reduce its reliance on the Malacca Strait, such as via port-and-rail or pipeline projects in Pakistan, Myanmar and Eastern Europe, which means "we cannot take Beijing's commitment here for granted".

"If China pulls out her support, the port becomes useless because it has no hinterland, unlike Klang and Penang which serve a big local market. In fact, many businesses prefer to send their goods to Klang by road instead of the existing Malacca or Penang ports because it is more efficient."

Critics have questioned Malay- sia's over-reliance on China, in the light of the huge deals struck during Datuk Seri Najib's recent visit to Beijing, as well as a whopping RM55 billion loan to build a railway that will eventually link Port Klang on the west and Kuantan port in Pahang and also Terengganu and Kelantan.

"There is the question of over-dependence, and the diplomatic leverage involved if Beijing were to move in more aggressively. So far, Najib is still hedging, but when it comes to investments, you can't expect as much from America as you can from China. If you want to go up against Singapore, then this port makes sense, especially when it is in the form of foreign investment, given Malaysia's fiscal constraints," said Dr Saravanamuttu.

Transport Minister Liow Tiong Lai batted away these concerns on his return from Beijing, telling reporters that "with the economy growing, we need more ports". He said: "The port alliance... has seen results, bringing more competitiveness to our ports and logistic sectors."
 
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KIENCHIN

Junior Member
Registered Member
B
Singapore better watch out!. If they are not cautious with their support of pivot, they might be at the receiving end of China own pivot to Malaysia
Plan is now afoot to developed Malacca port and if China mad enough they might built the long talked Kra canal in Thailand kra isthmus
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Malacca harbour plan raises questions about China's strategic aims
An artist's impression of the Melaka Gateway joint venture, which is part of a wider port alliance between Kuala Lumpur and Beijing to increase bilateral trade and boost shipping and logistics along China's Maritime Silk Road.PHOTO: MELAKA GATEWAY
Published
Nov 14, 2016, 5:00 am SGT
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Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
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Email
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Malaysia Correspondent In Kuala Lumpur


A RM43 billion (S$14 billion) harbour being developed in Malacca aims to overtake Singapore as the largest port in the region, but questions are being raised about the need for the added capacity and whether China's eager participation has to do with good business or its crucial strategic interests in the Malacca Strait.

For China, not only does most of its trade pass through the Malacca Strait, but so does up to 80 per cent of its energy needs. This prompted then President Hu Jintao to make the "Malacca Dilemma" a key strategic issue as far back as 2003.

"There is the strategic element of the Malacca Strait. It always starts with an economic presence, which can develop into a naval one, because China will be obliged to ensure the safe passage of its commercial ships," said Dr Johan Saravanamuttu of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, who studies the Malaysia-China relationship.

.
The Melaka Gateway joint venture is part of a wider port alliance between Kuala Lumpur and Beijing to increase bilateral trade and boost shipping and logistics along China's much-vaunted Maritime Silk Road.

Chinese firm Guangxi Beibu International Port Group already owns 40 per cent of Kuantan port, which faces the disputed waters of the South China Sea, and 49 per cent of the Kuantan Industrial Park in Pahang, the home state of Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak.


The Malaysian authorities are talking up the game-changing Melaka Gateway deal between little-known KAJ Developments and energy giant PowerChina International, which will form a joint venture and spend RM30 billion to reclaim three islands off Malacca's coast. The entire Gateway development will be completed in 2025 but the deep-sea port is expected to be ready by 2019. The Malaysian government hopes to attract the bulk of 100,000 vessels, most of them Chinese, that ply the Malacca Strait annually.

st_20161114_port14_2740099.jpg


Some industry players have expressed concern about the cannibalising of existing ports along the strait, especially in the light of Singapore's own port expansion.

Though the Malaysian government has said a new port is needed because Klang, the country's most important port, will be full by 2020, studies appear to show otherwise.

A World Bank study commissioned by the government last year showed a new port on Malaysia's west coast is not necessary, as existing facilities have yet to reach capacity, according to sources. Both operators at Port Klang - Westports and MMC - have also made expansion proposals that would double the port's capacity, the sources added.

"Because there seems to be no logic to the Melaka deal, many are questioning if this has more to do with military rather than commercial interests," a logistics player told The Straits Times.

Sources also said the reclaimed islands would be given freehold status and the port granted a 99-year concession - both rare and generous terms. Melaka Gateway did not respond to a request for comment.

China's military presence around Malaysian waters has increased significantly since last year. In September last year, all three branches of the Chinese armed forces took part in a six-day joint exercise on "disaster relief" in the Malacca Strait.

China has also gained access to Kota Kinabalu, a crucial dock in Sabah close to the disputed Spratly Islands, where Beijing's construction activities have been a source of diplomatic strife in the region.

A former port authority chief noted that China has made moves to reduce its reliance on the Malacca Strait, such as via port-and-rail or pipeline projects in Pakistan, Myanmar and Eastern Europe, which means "we cannot take Beijing's commitment here for granted".

"If China pulls out her support, the port becomes useless because it has no hinterland, unlike Klang and Penang which serve a big local market. In fact, many businesses prefer to send their goods to Klang by road instead of the existing Malacca or Penang ports because it is more efficient."

Critics have questioned Malay- sia's over-reliance on China, in the light of the huge deals struck during Datuk Seri Najib's recent visit to Beijing, as well as a whopping RM55 billion loan to build a railway that will eventually link Port Klang on the west and Kuantan port in Pahang and also Terengganu and Kelantan.

"There is the question of over-dependence, and the diplomatic leverage involved if Beijing were to move in more aggressively. So far, Najib is still hedging, but when it comes to investments, you can't expect as much from America as you can from China. If you want to go up against Singapore, then this port makes sense, especially when it is in the form of foreign investment, given Malaysia's fiscal constraints," said Dr Saravanamuttu.

Transport Minister Liow Tiong Lai batted away these concerns on his return from Beijing, telling reporters that "with the economy growing, we need more ports". He said: "The port alliance... has seen results, bringing more competitiveness to our ports and logistic sectors."
Before there was a port of Singapore, Malacca had been the premier trading hub in the region and has connections with China going back to the days of admiral Cheng Ho. If the isthmus of Kra canal does get built Singapore would be in big trouble
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
I would not underestimate Trump just yet. He didn't build a milti billion dollar empire if that is only his traits. His company have business in over 500 ventures, and he know how to structure them to get the most from the success, and isolate the losses.

Nor its only good luck that he beat 20 well qualified people to became president, he is a showman, yes, but he demonstrated extraordinary ability in gauging human nature which few people have.

Say what you will about him, he does have better instinct than Hillary, and when you look at his life, he is a hustler, he does work hard and he does work ruthless to get what he wants. Maybe he is the person that America needs at this very moment in its history.

Oh btw, don't pay too much attention to his personality faults, they are all there yes, but its a campaign strategy by the democrats to make him look like a monster, and equally it was a campaign strategy from Republicans to make Hillary into a corrupt politician.

In the end Monster vs Crook.... the monster won. But monster is mostly tied to his personal flaws, and some of the best US presidents were no angel in their private lives.

Don't overestimate that "monster" Trump either. Remember this is the guy that had cheated on and failed 2 marriages and basically bought his current wife. Here's the guy that has failed several business adventures such as Casinos and few others. If this is what the American people can get the best out of a corrupt and failed system, than we are all in slow continuous downward spiral. Pretty soon the masses would demand to adapt Chinese Communism with American Characteristics?;) After all the CPC did uplifted 800 million Chinese people out of poverty and several hundreds millions more became middle class (now the largest in the world) and growing! Bottom line, it's all about the welfare of the people regardless of rich or poor.
 

sanblvd

Junior Member
Registered Member
Don't overestimate that "monster" Trump either. Remember this is the guy that had cheated on and failed 2 marriages and basically bought his current wife. Here's the guy that has failed several business adventures such as Casinos and few others. If this is what the American people can get the best out of a corrupt and failed system, than we are all in slow continuous downward spiral. Pretty soon the masses would demand to adapt Chinese Communism with American Characteristics?;) After all the CPC did uplifted 800 million Chinese people out of poverty and several hundreds millions more became middle class (now the largest in the world) and growing! Bottom line, it's all about the welfare of the people regardless of rich or poor.

Ok I hate to defend Trump, but what you said, don't automatically make him a failure president. How many president cheated on their wife? Bill Clinton was overall a good president, and we all know about his personal life. Look at Nixon, look like JFK, look at FDR even, they all cheated on their wives.

There is more president cheated on their wife then who didn't. George W and Obama didn't cheat, and look at their presidency? I'm not saying cheating is good, I'm just saying marriage infidelity is NOT a determination of policy failure.

As for his business failure, yes we all can name his failures... but at the end of the day, he is a billionaire and we are not. That means... he had a lot MORE success than failures in his business.... which = success. There is a reason college admission look at your GPA vs your lowest grade.

There are ways you can attack him which would be more valid, for example his thin skin, his constant need for approval etc... but what you said are exactly what Hillary campaign's attack points.
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
Ok I hate to defend Trump, but what you said, don't automatically make him a failure president. How many president cheated on their wife? Bill Clinton was overall a good president, and we all know about his personal life. Look at Nixon, look like JFK, look at FDR even, they all cheated on their wives.

There is more president cheated on their wife then who didn't. George W and Obama didn't cheat, and look at their presidency? I'm not saying cheating is good, I'm just saying marriage infidelity is NOT a determination of policy failure.

As for his business failure, yes we all can name his failures... but at the end of the day, he is a billionaire and we are not. That means... he had a lot MORE success than failures in his business.... which = success. There is a reason college admission look at your GPA vs your lowest grade.

There are ways you can attack him which would be more valid, for example his thin skin, his constant need for approval etc... but what you said are exactly what Hillary campaign's attack points.

Trump cheated on his wives EVEN before he took office, what the future may beholds...oh my, the National Enquire would be in business till the next election.:p

He's a billionaire because of his parent's fortune to start out with along with who knows how many corporate welfare and bailouts his companies had received. Remember he never FULLY reveal his tax record to the public (at least Hillary did).

His character speaks volume of his inability to lead and I have no "hope" for this one. The office for the POTUS has now became nothing but a 4 year reality television, where even the least qualify can hold office. What a joke of a system.:mad::( Don't get me wrong I love America, but I'm being a realist at the same time. The reality is America needs to change by getting rid of the old incompetent elitist and religious institutions that are still holding us back from REAL progress...by any means necessary.
 

sanblvd

Junior Member
Registered Member
His character speaks volume of his inability to lead and I have no "hope" for this one. The office for the POTUS has now became nothing but a 4 year reality television, where even the least qualify can hold office. What a joke of a system.:mad::( Don't get me wrong I love America, but I'm being a realist at the same time. The reality is America needs to change by getting rid of the old incompetent elitist and religious institutions that are still holding us back from REAL progress...by any means necessary.

Ok clearly you have not read or understood what I wrote, because you literally just re-typed Hillary's campaign attack point 1 more time. And this will be my last reply to you on this topic.

However I just highlight your last paragraph to show you the sweet sweet irony.... Hillary clearly is the established elitist candidate in this election. Trump on the other hand, is NOT establishment whatsoever, all of the Washington elites were against him, and during the campaign he collected less than HALF of Hilary's donation, and he put up 50 million dollar of his own money to run, while Hillary put out less than 1 million of her own money.

And yet... against all odd, he won, he beat the Hillary and beat out the old incompetent elitist and religious institutions candidates.

Take it as you will, I hope you get the irony, and I will not reply to you any further
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
Ok clearly you have not read or understood what I wrote, because you literally just re-typed Hillary's campaign attack point 1 more time. And this will be my last reply to you on this topic.

However I just highlight your last paragraph to show you the sweet sweet irony.... Hillary clearly is the established elitist candidate in this election. Trump on the other hand, is NOT establishment whatsoever, all of the Washington elites were against him, and during the campaign he collected less than HALF of Hilary's donation, and he put up 50 million dollar of his own money to run, while Hillary put out less than 1 million of her own money.

And yet... against all odd, he won, he beat the Hillary and beat out the old incompetent elitist and religious institutions candidates.

Take it as you will, I hope you get the irony, and I will not reply to you any further

And you don't think Trump is a part of that old elite establishment...smh? Didn't you know America has two competing elite groups? One is a neocon (Republicans) and one's "liberal" (Democrats), both are totally against a rising China whether they admit to it or not. The bottom line of my argument is that America's choices for picking either establishment crook "A" or "B" makes no difference. The corruptions and incompetence are so thick it takes a miracle to reverse the continuous down fall or go for a regime change sort of scenario, and I doubt that would happen. If America could only do a wide anti-corruption campaign like President Xi Jinping did for the PRC, Trump would have been under investigation for tax evasion, while Hillary Clinton would have been in jail for her Benghazi failures.:rolleyes:

Actually Trump didn't win the popular vote, therefore without the electoral college system he would have lost. So the irony is, like Trump said, "the system is rigged"!;)
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Guess who is smiling ear to ear and cannot help themselves to dig Singapore. Yup you guess it right Global Times Here they issue veiled warning and suggestion
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For a long time, Singapore has claimed to seek a balance between the major powers of the US and China, but in reality the country has been taking the US' side. As a Chinese proverb goes, "a great man always considers the timing before he acts." If Singapore continues clinging to the TPP, the country is expected to fall deeper in its economic slide. To avoid that situation, Singapore needs to attach more importance to the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) negotiations launched by leaders from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (
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) and its free trade agreement partners, China included, in 2012. Standards of the RCEP are expected to be more suitable to countries in East Asia and Southeast Asia. Together with China's strong support in the RCEP, Singapore is likely to be able to halt its economic downturn and revive its economy by strengthening free trade with countries within the East Asian and Southeast Asian region.

In the meantime the anti China crowd are commiserating about the demise of TPP and they pin their hope on Japan to resuscitate the comatose TPP.
I guess it is like grasping the straw wind. Japan cannot shake the low growth for decades now. Aside from few industry like Car and precision machinery. Japanese industry face a head wind from Korean and increasingly Chinese competition and they completely missed the PC and now the smart Phone economy. I doubt it Japan can upstage China. Money talk. In the meantime China is pouring money all over SEA From port and huge Iskander development in Johor baru , Railway, Kuantan industrial estate


Peter Lee in his op/ed
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It would therefore appear that the anti-China forces are in disarray and the PRC is going to pull all the nations of Asia into its economic orbit.

That is, safe to say, not Prime Minister Abe’s ambition nor is it the desire of the US diplomatic, trade, and security professionals and pivoteers struggling to maintain their footing during the Trump earthquake. And it is probably not the preference of the smaller Asia-Pacific economies, which would prefer to deal with the Chinese goliath from a position of relative collective strength and not individually.

Now that America is out of the picture, the logical nucleus for a trade bloc of Asian interlocutors with the PRC is its biggest economy, Japan. And the best platform is still the TPP which, through years of grinding negotiations, generated the notorious 6000-page secret agreement.

Prime Minister Abe undoubtedly expected President Hillary Clinton to continue pumping US diplomatic, military, and economic power into Asia for the next few years in the quest to make this “America’s Pacific Century.”

But then came President Trump.

And with him an opening to exercise Japan’s leadership in Asia.

I believe this unexpected opportunity fits in with Prime Minister Abe’s long term ambitions for Japan to re-emerge as a fully-fledged regional power, one ready and able to take flight if the US betrayed Japan either by pivoting to China (as already happened once with the epochal “Nixon shocks” of 1971-2, which included sudden PRC recognition) or marginalizing itself in Asia through inattention, incapacity, or internal crisis (the incoming Trump administration may hit the trifecta here).

And you know who’s begging him to exercise leadership in Asian trade diplomacy? The Americans.

The Brookings Institution
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from Donald Trump by taking the lead on trade policy and even trying to keep TPP alive until some combination of circumstances allows its resuscitation in the United States.

Mireya Solís, a Senior Fellow at Brookings’ Center for East Asian Policy Studies, urged Asian signatories to arrange a fiddle to the ratification clause that would allow the TPP to survive a US pullout:

[A] revived TPP will also help Japan position itself more effectively vis-à-vis China in the ongoing negotiations to create [the RCEP]… by refusing to bury the TPP, Japan and the remaining countries will also keep open the option for a future American return to the trade grouping.

The vital ingredient in this plan is Japanese leadership, as Solís concluded:

[A scaled back TPP] can be a beacon of light at a time when the prospects for a liberal economic order are uncertain. But the ultimate success of the TPP will rest on leadership from Japan — the largest remaining economy in the TPP.

Lest Solís be regarded as an outlier, Jeffrey Schott of the Peterson Institute also
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for a “provisional” TPP that keeps the flame burning until the US hopefully gets its act together.

And it’s not just desperate pivoteers.

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, a Japanese parliamentarian, the president of Peru, and the Economy Minister of Mexico have also urged exploring “TPP-lite” if the US can’t show up.

In other words, TPP may be persona non grata in the Trump White House and the US Congress, but the trends and forces supporting a collective non-China trade regime have not completely evaporated together with the TPP’s ratification prospects in the United States.

Abe, I believe, is pushing TPP because he always saw the treaty as a potential asset and bargaining chip in his regional and PRC diplomacy, its value perhaps paradoxically enhanced now by the US collapse that leaves Japan as the indispensable player in regional trade diplomacy vis a vis China, albeit a decade earlier than he expected.

It looks like the inevitable response to the Trump crisis will be America ceding a vital share of leadership of the East Asian democracies (+ Vietnam) to Japan — which is where Prime Minister Abe always thought it should be.
 
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