China's SCS Strategy Thread

[xiabonan]

Does anyone seriously think that selling some ships missiles and fighters to Vietnam would change the balance of power?

Many people seem to forget that Vietnam is a land neighbour of China, and the two had a bloody boarder war that ended with Chinese victory, and that was when Vietnam's military is arguably at its peak while China's at its weakest, due to the just ended cultural revolution.

Does anybody really think that Vietnam can win or even stand a chance at winning a land war with PLA near China's boarders? And for that matter, does ANY army can claim that they're confident at winning a land war against China near Chinese boarders?

Yes the conflict is at sea, but when war really breaks out and warships and warplanes need to be deployed, the real strike would be on land, not at sea.

 

[BigWang]

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

...
TAIPEI: Vietnam's de facto ambassador to Taiwan on Friday gave a "personal" apology after anti-China protesters ravaged hundreds of Taiwanese factories in his country this week, and said some 1,000 people have been arrested over the violence.
...

Then rushing to contain the diplomatic fallout...

Taiwan business expressed Vietnam should financially compensate for the damage. It's in billions. I think they could, didn't they bought some 6 kilos with 2 billion. and also the Su-34 recently shown in the internet. They making tons of money from drilling oil in the south.

Is Vietnam ready to step up to compensate ?

 

[SteelBird]

Does anyone seriously think that selling some ships missiles and fighters to Vietnam would change the balance of power?

Many people seem to forget that Vietnam is a land neighbour of China, and the two had a bloody boarder war that ended with Chinese victory, and that was when Vietnam's military is arguably at its peak while China's at its weakest, due to the just ended cultural revolution.

Does anybody really think that Vietnam can win or even stand a chance at winning a land war with PLA near China's boarders? And for that matter, does ANY army can claim that they're confident at winning a land war against China near Chinese boarders?

Yes the conflict is at sea, but when war really breaks out and warships and warplanes need to be deployed, the real strike would be on land, not at sea.

Well, my friend, you might be over excited. In an all out war, Vietnam dies for sure no matter where they fight. If somebody wants to ignite a conflict, the conflict would be very limited like those in 1974 and 1988. But again, the last two conflict have proved already, we don't need to argue. So at most, I think there is just some "thief shouting thief" game, and that's all.

 

[xiabonan]

Well, my friend, you might be over excited. In an all out war, Vietnam dies for sure no matter where they fight. If somebody wants to ignite a conflict, the conflict would be very limited like those in 1974 and 1988. But again, the last two conflict have proved already, we don't need to argue. So at most, I think there is just some "thief shouting thief" game, and that's all.

I'm not trying to beat the war drums nor do I like or want or foresee any full-fledged war with Vietnam. I was simply trying to make a point that selling a few weapons don't do Vietnam any good, it would only waste Vietnam's valuable but limited financial resources.

Nowadays wars are fought with systems, a few advanced weapons simply can't change the balance of power nor post any real threat that's enough to deter Chinese military forces due to the vast gap between two countries.

I say it's time that Vietnam tone down the dispute and calm down her nationalists, and focus on long-term relationship with China and try to attain long-term economic growth. Vietnam has one of the lowest GDP per capita even in Southeast Asia which comprises of mainly developing countries. Set Singapore and Malaysia aside, Vietnam's GDP per capita is even much lower than that of the Philippines.

Vietnam is unlikely to get any support from the US, nor any likely support from Russia which itself needs tremendous Chinese support in handling the Ukrainian issue. Even regional countries refuse to unite with Vietnam and Japan, though might be interested, is probably lacking the resources to help as well. Japan herself is not in a very good position as well due to failing economics.

Who else is there to support Vietnam? And when left alone, how is Vietnam going to retaliate against China?

 

[Franklin]

Here are the two reasons why i think war in Asia at this time is very unlikely.

1. No one wants war! Not China, US, Japan, Vietnam nor the Philippines.

2. The disputes are not about land borders but about far away islands. The chances for accidental skirmishes with the lost of life and further escalation are much smaller than in a land dispute. At this point the navies are not even involved. Its mainly the coast guards.

 

[Equation]

Here are the two reasons why i think war in Asia at this time is very unlikely.

1. No one wants war! Not China, US, Japan, Vietnam nor the Philippines.

2. The dispute are not about land borders but about far away islands. The chances for accidental skirmishes with the lost of live and further escalation are much smaller than in a land dispute.

Plus nobody (besides some garrison soldiers) lives in those desolate islands therefore it had little or no immediate impact upon ordinary citizens except the hardcore nationalistic ones. The SCS is an all out open land grab to those who has the means and the capability to exploit it to their advantages and right now China has it and some of her jealous neighbors knows it and just couldn't stand it, therefore asking for the US Navy assistance in disguise of "freedom of navigation" or some other lame excuse.

 

[joshuatree]

Taiwan business expressed Vietnam should financially compensate for the damage. It's in billions. I think they could, didn't they bought some 6 kilos with 2 billion. and also the Su-34 recently shown in the internet. They making tons of money from drilling oil in the south.

Is Vietnam ready to step up to compensate ?

That's really up to Vietnam on the next response. However, if they choose not to compensate, it would seriously erode investor confidence in that country knowing their capital can evaporate overnight when unexpected events occur.

If they opt for selective compensation such as compensating South Korean and Japanese companies but not Chinese and Taiwanese companies, then they are setting up for economic retaliation such as prohibiting Vietnamese goods from being imported to China and Taiwan, even being specific to the point that even Korean brand and Japanese brands made in Vietnam getting banned in the Chinese/Taiwanese markets which would make South Korean and Japanese companies think twice of where to set up production in SEA, maybe Thailand instead, etc etc.

 

[yuxiaochen]

i dont know where to post this, so might as well post it somewhere reasonable. just saw this today, JH-7A with jamming pod near 981 drill platform

 

[Jeff Head]

Simple answer is because Liaoning has a skip ramp and more importantly arresting wires.

Amen. They could do it...but they will probably use it for various STOL aircraft and helicopters.

I reoriented those pics and came up with the following sequence of pictures of Johnson South Reef (called mabini Reef by the PRC) showing the progression of Chinese activity there between 2012 and now:

​

Pretty amazing the amount of material that the Chinese have brought in there and the "reclamation," work they have done building that island. Seems like they are building barrier walls too to try and help with and avoid erosion.

The first big typhoon that blows through there will be interesting to see how much, if any, of the material they lose.

 

[TerraN_EmpirE]

Pretty amazing the amount of material that the Chinese have brought in there and the "reclamation," work they have done building that island. Seems like they are building barrier walls too to try and help with and avoid erosion.

The first big typhoon that blows through there will be interesting to see how much, if any, of the material they lose.

Given the PRC's own continental constuction programs it's highly logical that they have a rapid turn around for there own personal "monster island."