Ironically it would probably be just like the Nixon administration's reconciliation with communist China. It will take a US administration that can withstand domestic political attacks on the move, or not be attacked in the first place because they are in the same party as the potential attackers.
China's SCS Strategy Thread
- Thread starter lilzz
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Ironically it would probably be just like the Nixon administration's reconciliation with communist China. It will take a US administration that can withstand domestic political attacks on the move, or not be attacked in the first place because they are in the same party as the potential attackers.
joshuatree
Captain
Maybe but will there be a ski ramp to assist with take off? And payload would be limited. As I said before, if the island's size is already set, an airstrip based on the current size would be limited. Maybe if you based smaller planes there like recon, sure.
That would be a bad idea. Blurring the lines between civilian and military would just be dangerous to the civilians. Furthermore, the fishermen are not properly trained and trigger happy ones can start something both sides never intended.
TerraN_EmpirE
Tyrant King
Politically I think it unlikely there would be a major backlash. The current cycle considers the events of the 70's as history and well out of the current cycle. only Nixon could go to china as he was a foaming at the mouth anticommunist Progressive Republican. Today the Anticommunist rhetoric is toned down. the biggest issue would be getting a administration forward thinking enough to offer the Olive branch. Obama has no real Foreign policy And Clinton although she was Secretary of State and First lady I think intends to follow up O with more domestic domestic domestic.
It's unlikely US would place an active military presence in Vietnam. Notwithstanding the historical bad blood between US and Vietnam resulting from the Vietnam War, anti communist sentiments of South Vietnamese expatriates living in the states, having more American soldiers in the region just after deploying them in Philippines and Australia would be a step too far for China.
Besides, the US is actively engaging Russia in Ukraine which would make EU and Baltic allies nervous if US suddenly increases its commitment to Vietnam. Doing so would not only alienate NATO allies as they are traditionally the top priority when it comes it US supports, but it would also cement Sino-Russian relationship that would make economic sanctions on Russia even more meaningless.
I think the current standoff in South China Sea with Vietnam is a Chinese push back against the renewed US pivot, testing the US resolves in the region since the standoff started right after Obama's visit.
Vietnam has the misfortunate of being targeted because it shares a land border with China which gives China more flexibility should things get out of hand. And Vietnam coast guards forces are more vulnerable as suppose to Japanese or Philippine coast guards. Also, the drill is located in an area that is relatively close to Chinese coast which makes it easier to send in naval and air support should the need arise.
Vietnam is in a bad place right now geopolitically. Vietnam is not close enough with US to warrant immediate assistance. Russia, a traditional ally of Vietnam currently needs Chinese financial and trade backing for Ukrainian crisis.
Btw, things are not going to look too great for Vietnam in the coming weeks, as Russia has decided to send a Pacific fleet squadron to take part in a joint naval exercise with Chinese navy in the South China Sea during Putin's visit next week.
solarz
Brigadier
A US-Vietnam alliance would not be palatable for either the US public, or the Vietnamese government. The former will sooner or later question why they are supporting a communist dictatorship, while the Vietnamese people will be asking why they need the latter at all if they're getting help from Uncle Sam.
Geographer
Junior Member
The idea of a strong U.S.-Vietnam military alliance is totally unrealistic. Americans still need a visa to travel to Vietnam. Vietnam has repeatedly said it wants no permanent alliances with anyone. The U.S. has significant human rights issues with Vietnam such as the detention of dissent bloggers and priests and religious freedom for Roman Catholics, Cao Dai, and Hoa Hao religious minorities. This is not the 1960s when the U.S. would overlook such problems in the cause of containing Communism. There is a strong human rights lobby in the U.S. that would seriously object to any basing of American troops in a Communist country, not to mention the Vietnamese-American community that largely hates the VCP.
The USN's port calls in Vietnam should not be over-analyzed. The PLAN has done port calls all over Southeast Asia and the Mediterranean but nobody expects China to set up bases in those countries. They are a small diplomatic gesture. Good for public relations, keeping friendly ties, and giving sailors some rest and recreation but not a prelude to overseas bases or strategic alliance.
If the U.S. doesn't send its own forces in Vietnam--and it won't--what could the U.S. do to "contain" China? Sell Vietnam some ships and planes? Vietnam can't afford what it takes to match China militarily. A few modern American destroyers and fighter planes are not going to deter China from pursuing its interests in the SCS. Vietnam already has a Kilo submarine, some modern Russian corvettes and frigates, and Su-30s but they haven't played a role in the oil rig clashes. Intelligence on the latest Chinese movements in the SCS are of little use when you have no ability to intervene. Besides, the oil rig's presence was announced by CNOOC themselves.
Vietnam is and will forever be next door neighbors with China. There is no escaping this geographic fact. It can be a curse or a blessing. The blessing is Vietnam is right next to the fastest growing market in the world. Vietnamese consumers benefit from the vast Chinese industrial base that produces goods cheaper than other countries. Vietnam and China have similar cultures. There's a dynamic Chinese minority in Vietnam. China is hungry for everything and Vietnamese companies can enter the market with lower transportation costs than competitors. I think it would be wise to keep good relations with your next door neighbor.
The USN's port calls in Vietnam should not be over-analyzed. The PLAN has done port calls all over Southeast Asia and the Mediterranean but nobody expects China to set up bases in those countries. They are a small diplomatic gesture. Good for public relations, keeping friendly ties, and giving sailors some rest and recreation but not a prelude to overseas bases or strategic alliance.
If the U.S. doesn't send its own forces in Vietnam--and it won't--what could the U.S. do to "contain" China? Sell Vietnam some ships and planes? Vietnam can't afford what it takes to match China militarily. A few modern American destroyers and fighter planes are not going to deter China from pursuing its interests in the SCS. Vietnam already has a Kilo submarine, some modern Russian corvettes and frigates, and Su-30s but they haven't played a role in the oil rig clashes. Intelligence on the latest Chinese movements in the SCS are of little use when you have no ability to intervene. Besides, the oil rig's presence was announced by CNOOC themselves.
Vietnam is and will forever be next door neighbors with China. There is no escaping this geographic fact. It can be a curse or a blessing. The blessing is Vietnam is right next to the fastest growing market in the world. Vietnamese consumers benefit from the vast Chinese industrial base that produces goods cheaper than other countries. Vietnam and China have similar cultures. There's a dynamic Chinese minority in Vietnam. China is hungry for everything and Vietnamese companies can enter the market with lower transportation costs than competitors. I think it would be wise to keep good relations with your next door neighbor.
kwaigonegin
Colonel
Simple answer is because Liaoning has a skip ramp and more importantly arresting wires.
Not afraid Vietnam turn those US weapons to Russia for study?
Pirates intend to rob whereas Chinese fishermen intend to defend themselves. Different mindsets.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
Many a Somali pirate argued that they are but simple fishing folk trying to defend their livelihoods from illegal overfishing by foreign industrial fish harvesters.
The whole point of being a strong nation with a powerful military and independent foreign policy is that the nation and its armed forces will stand up for its citizens when needed so those citizens won't need to do it themselves.
Arming fishermen would be just about the most clear admission of failure a government could make as it would be effectively telling those fishermen that they are on their own and need to fend for themselves if threatened or attacked.
Arming even one fishermen also paints bullseye on the backs of every other fishermen since hostile foreign powers could use that as a pretext to shoot first and ask questions later.
Imagine how much more difficult it would have been for Taiwan to build a case against the Philipines for the killing of that fishing boat captain if it transpires that captain was packing AKs and RPGs.
In a shoot out between some fishermen armed with AKs and professional soldiers sitting behind armed plating manning heavy machine guns and heavier weapons, who do you reckon is more likely to come out on top?
The only thing arming fishermen will do its get them killed and allow their killers to get away scot free by using the presence of those arms as justification for the killings, whereby the attacker paints themselves as the victims, and since the fishermen are too busy being dead to voice a contradicting story, that will be the only narrative heard.