China's SCS Strategy Thread

solarz

Brigadier
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Hong Kong’s Security Bureau on Thursday raised the Outbound Travel Alert (OTA) for Vietnam to red, warning travellers to avoid non-essential visits to the country, after 16 Chinese nationals and five Vietnamese were killed in a riot at a Taiwanese-owned steel mill in centre of the country.
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Not wise for business travel to Vietnam at the moment, especially for Chinese (or those who look like Chinese) Koreans, Taiwanese and even Japanese could be killed for mistaken identity. Years of propaganda and brainwashing will result entire population behave like what Nazi once did with their ethnic cleansing blaming Jews for all their troubles. Vietnam seems bent on blaming the Chinese for their ills and fear of such ethnic cleansing tragedy will happen in future in Vietnam.

This isn't the first time Vietnam has had anti-Chinese pogroms.
 

port_08

Junior Member
This is a good opportunity for US to come to Vietnam aid and investment since bilateral relationship Vietnam and China is very low now. Re-establish rapproachment and build military to military contact to contain China and have some bases for US navy. This will encircle China if it comes to conflict and Vietnam can count on US support to wrestle back Hong Sa\Xi sha\Spratlies. US companies can start to invest more in Vietnam, as one person lost is another person gain. Ships, missiles, F16s for sales

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Sem Chi, head of the Association of Khmer Vietnamese in the Kingdom of Cambodia, told VOA Khmer the demonstration, which was to be held in protest of Chinese oil exploration in the contentious South China Sea, was postponed “indefinitely.”

He said the association had decided in a meeting that they did not have enough time to prepare.
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Vietnamese government can organize such protest but it's proven it's always difficult control crowd behaviours..
 
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joshuatree

Captain
This is a good opportunity for US to come to Vietnam aid and investment since bilateral relationship Vietnam and China is very low now. Re-establish rapproachment and build military to military contact to contain China and have some bases for US navy. This will encircle China if it comes to conflict and Vietnam can count on US support to wrestle back Hong Sa\Xi sha\Spratlies. US companies can start to invest more in Vietnam, as one person lost is another person gain. Ships, missiles, F16s for sales

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...
Sem Chi, head of the Association of Khmer Vietnamese in the Kingdom of Cambodia, told VOA Khmer the demonstration, which was to be held in protest of Chinese oil exploration in the contentious South China Sea, was postponed “indefinitely.”

He said the association had decided in a meeting that they did not have enough time to prepare.
...


Vietnamese government can organize such protest but it's proven it's always difficult control crowd behaviours..

Maybe....but there's a few hurdles there as well. Large Vietnamese American communities such ones in Orange County CA will have a fit as they still don't even want to recognize Communist Vietnam. They just scuttled a fairly benign attempt by the city of Irvine to establish 3 friendship city relations, one each in China, Vietnam, and Pakistan even though the other two had no relation to the Vietnamese issue.

US business interests in Vietnam may be tempered with any potential backlash of its business relations in China.

What interest does the US have in wrestling control of these islands from one "Communist" country to give to another?

China still doesn't know how to weld its soft power, if it openly and consistently declares freedom of navigation in those waters, especially those shipping lanes, it would blunt the argument for US concerns in those waters.
 

port_08

Junior Member
US business interests in Vietnam may be tempered with any potential backlash of its business relations in China.

What interest does the US have in wrestling control of these islands from one "Communist" country to give to another?

China still doesn't know how to weld its soft power, if it openly and consistently declares freedom of navigation in those waters, especially those shipping lanes, it would blunt the argument for US concerns in those waters.

US can play the spoiler with minimum cost, the enemy of my enemy is my friend. Vietnam can embrace US support, welcome US investments and marines to keep the Chinese in check and US hardly needs to do much but occasionally instigating and plant some ideas to their head, whisper some ideas. The pivot already successful of raising tension in the region.

If you're number 1, would you allow 2 to rise and take over your place? Reality is no. US want to spy on China irregardless of what China do, come on! you're talking about a nation that spy on their own citizens via PRISM, they can't trust their own Americans, how can they trust a foreign nation, they even spied on their allies? US want to sent their navy ships around China territorial waters. Even China embrace the so call "freedom" of navigation, there's still many "freedom" can be demanded and imposed by US. At the moment, the strategy is instigating the small potatoes to do ones bidding. Easily playing the cards well, you can sow dissent and gain foothold in the region without spending much and these are good strategy, very Sun Tzuish. Just make noise and cause trouble whenever there is China present\foothold. US will pivot in and keep their potential adversary in check in whatever continent.
 

jobjed

Captain
US can play the spoiler with minimum cost, the enemy of my enemy is my friend. Vietnam can embrace US support, welcome US investments and marines to keep the Chinese in check and US hardly needs to do much but occasionally instigating and plant some ideas to their head, whisper some ideas. The pivot already successful of raising tension in the region.

If you're number 1, would you allow 2 to rise and take over your place? Reality is no. US want to spy on China irregardless of what China do, come on! you're talking about a nation that spy on their own citizens via PRISM, they can't trust their own Americans, how can they trust a foreign nation, they even spied on their allies? US want to sent their navy ships around China territorial waters. Even China embrace the so call "freedom" of navigation, there's still many "freedom" can be demanded and imposed by US. At the moment, the strategy is instigating the small potatoes to do ones bidding. Easily playing the cards well, you can sow dissent and gain foothold in the region without spending much and these are good strategy, very Sun Tzuish. Just make noise and cause trouble whenever there is China present\foothold. US will pivot in and keep their potential adversary in check in whatever continent.

There's an ancient Chinese saying: 好战必危; there's always a risk to warmongering. While it may yield short term benefits in meddling in foreign affairs, most of the time, those actions will come back to bite the meddler in the ass. If two foreign countries have grievances with each other, it's wisest to stay on the sidelines and encourage peace rather than actively trying to influence events.
 

BigWang

Banned Idiot
US can play the spoiler with minimum cost, the enemy of my enemy is my friend. Vietnam can embrace US support, welcome US investments and marines to keep the Chinese in check and US hardly needs to do much but occasionally instigating and plant some ideas to their head, whisper some ideas. The pivot already successful of raising tension in the region.

If you're number 1, would you allow 2 to rise and take over your place? Reality is no. US want to spy on China irregardless of what China do, come on! you're talking about a nation that spy on their own citizens via PRISM, they can't trust their own Americans, how can they trust a foreign nation, they even spied on their allies? US want to sent their navy ships around China territorial waters. Even China embrace the so call "freedom" of navigation, there's still many "freedom" can be demanded and imposed by US. At the moment, the strategy is instigating the small potatoes to do ones bidding. Easily playing the cards well, you can sow dissent and gain foothold in the region without spending much and these are good strategy, very Sun Tzuish. Just make noise and cause trouble whenever there is China present\foothold. US will pivot in and keep their potential adversary in check in whatever continent.

1)Would US willing to sell weapons to Vietnam who's very close to Russia militarily? That's main question. US only willing sell old stuffs to its allies Philippines. You can rule out US setting a military base there.
 
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BigWang

Banned Idiot
If the land reclamation process is done on the last pic, it doesn't appear to be long enough for a meaningful airstrip which is the prevailing charge.

The land reclamation is basically a 2 for 1 deal. In needing to dredge material from under the shallow waters to create the land, a deeper harbor is concurrently created which is needed for larger ships to dock. My speculation would be a larger base to support more ELINT, maybe even be part of a SONUS network, as well as serve as a central base for the rest of the Spratly outposts, perhaps troops out there can now rotate to this base on greater frequency for more R&R possibilities.

Looks much longer than Liaoning. If J15 can launch from Liaoning, why not there?
 

BigWang

Banned Idiot
I would suggest turning all chinese fishermen into armed Militia, give them automatic rifles and RPG. They would only use when encounter hostile forces trying to kidnap them such as the filipino armed men.

China has a lot of fishermen and 10,000 fishing boats. And if each of them are armed, it would be force to reckon with.

After the fishing trip they would return the weapons to authority.
So, they get weapons when the trip started and return them when coming back.
 

TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King
1)Would US willing to sell weapons to Vietnam who's very close to Russia militarily? That's main question. US only willing sell old stuffs to its allies Philippines. You can rule out US setting a military base there.

Not entirely the relationships between Washington and Hanoi in the post Vietnam era have done a virtual 160. The possibility of US Vietnam alliance must be seriously considered and not brushed off. Although it would require a good degree of diplomatic maneuvering that I doubt the current admin is capable of.
 
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