China's SCS Strategy Thread

[joshuatree]

regarding the 1958 diplomatic note from pham van dong, i don't think it says vietnam accepts chinese ownership of the paracel or spratly islands. The note does not mention those islands at all. Pham van dong said vietnam accepts china's the width of china's territorial waters. According to

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, the translation of the 1958 note is as follows:
(my emphasis)

"comrade prime minister,

we have the honour to bring to your knowledge that the government of the drvn recognizes and supports the declaration dated 4th september, 1958 of the government of the prc fixing the width of the chinese territorial waters. The government of the drvn respects this decision and will give instructions to its state bodies to respect the 12-mile width of the territorial waters of china in all their relations in the maritime field with the prc. I address to you, comrade prime minister, the assurance of my distinguished consideration".

Allow me to emphasize a different line in the same note - "The Government of the DRVN respects this decision and will give instructions to its State bodies to respect the 12-mile width of the territorial waters of China in all their relations in the maritime field with the PRC."

Vietnam can't respect China's territorial waters without knowing and acknowledging what is China's territory. The 1958 declaration of territorial sea by China clearly include Paracels (Hsisha Islands) and Spratlys (Nansha Islands), and that document is what Pham alludes to in his note. It would be simple logic. And now that we have concepts of contiguous zones and EEZs, they would be extensions of that 12 nm acknowledgment. I can see the argument for disputing on overlapping EEZs but the rig is still within Triton Island's contiguous zone.

An often overlooked fact by a lot of media is that China already occupied the eastern portion of the Paracels dating back to ROC post WW2. PRC disputed and even fought with the French over the French's claim. When the French left, they objected to South Vietnam's claims. It's not how some media makes it that the South Vietnamese were the only occupiers of the Paracels and China came in and drove them out. But whatever dispute, North Vietnam aka current Vietnam gave up those claims in that diplomatic note. Again, I point to logic, how can any respect territorial waters without acknowledging who that piece of territory belongs to?

what is some non-lethal weaponry for use on the high seas?

Ramming
water cannons
paintball guns?
Lobbing bottles of stinky liquid (the sea shepherd environmentalists have done this to japanese whaling ships)?
Tear gas?

How about remote controlled armored tugs?

While the Vietnamese are painting a picture that the Chinese ships are being aggressive, what would any force do if another party's ships intrude into a defensive perimeter of a high value target like an oil rig?

 

[mr.bean]

What is some non-lethal weaponry for use on the high seas?

Ramming
Water cannons
Paintball guns?
Lobbing bottles of stinky liquid (the Sea Shepherd environmentalists have done this to Japanese whaling ships)?
Tear gas?

When two ships collide at sea, videos show them locked together for a minute. That's enough time to use paintball guns or tear gas. What if a skilled crew member could shoot a tear gas grenade down an open doorway? That would be very persuasive. A risk is that it could start a fire, like at the Waco Siege in 1993.

Edit: I found a Chinese

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accusing Vietnamese divers of trying to obstruct the ships.


In Vietnam, this incident is HUGE NEWS! It's the number one issue in the country. From the look of Chinese news websites, it's barely an issue. Global Times doesn't even have it on its front page as of 12 May 2014. How can Chinese newspapers omit an ongoing incident with multiple ship rammings? No sensible news editor would skip a story this big. I think the Chinese government is censoring coverage of this incident. For what purpose? Maybe to save face if China eventually withdraws its rig? That what this

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thinks.

glad you found that news about the viet divers. I didn't save the link because I watch too many of these news clips from china & Taiwan. in one report I saw they said china flew fighter jets atop the viet coast guard early on this maritime tug of war and they were sure the viets could clearly see them. I think that was a wise move to set the perimeters, just to let the viets know what's going to happen if they get trigger happy and ''shoot''. as long as nobody fires a weapon all is fair game. some Chinese internet folks are saying the reason china media is rather low key is because they don't want the public to have too much anti Vietnam sentiment. the viets need to galvanize all the support they can get and rally their country to oppose the giant china but for china, this is just child's play. and I seriously don't believe they are going to pull HySy-981 back, but the question is are they going to build more oil rigs like this or not.

 

[Engineer]

When two ships collide at sea, videos show them locked together for a minute. That's enough time to use paintball guns or tear gas. What if a skilled crew member could shoot a tear gas grenade down an open doorway? That would be very persuasive. A risk is that it could start a fire, like at the Waco Siege in 1993.

I believe Chinese crews threw actual grenades into Vietnamese ships back in 1974.

 

[solarz]

I believe Chinese crews threw actual grenades into Vietnamese ships back in 1974.

Well, that was back when China was willing to play hard-ball (Mao was still in charge), and the Vietnamese ships were from the South, against whom China was unofficially at war with.

 

[Geographer]

Meanwhile in Vietnam...

HANOI, Vietnam — Rioters torched and looted about 10 factories during anti-China protests in southern Vietnam in the most serious outbreak of public disorder in the tightly controlled country in years, an industrial park management official said Wednesday...

The rioters attacked factories they believed to be Chinese but many were Taiwanese owned, said the official, who declined to give his name because of the sensitivity of the developments. On Wednesday morning, groups of men on motorbikes drove around the complex waving Vietnamese flags and work there was stopped, the official said.

At the height of the protests up to 20,000 people were involved, according to a foreign diplomat briefed on the unrest.

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[plawolf]

Addressing the question raised earlier about why the Chinese media isn't making as meal out of this as the Vietnamese, well, it's down to simply power dynamics and expectation management.

China has all the power and options in this dispute, so it sees little to be threatened or concerned about. It will just do what it pleases/what's in China's best interest. If you have a problem with that, tough cookies. And before anyone starts, this isn't anything new or unprecedented. The very western powers guaranteed to be the first to issue copy and paste pro forma condemnations also tend to be the ones flipping the proverbial bird at the UN and international law when it gets in the way of them doing what they want.

The only real difference is that it is only recently that China has been in any position to dish it out rather than be on the receiving end.

Beijing is also aware that a mob is unpredictable and dangerous, and can often needlessly complicate a situation and/or be counterproductive. As the Vietnamese are learning now it seems.

A worked up mob wants blood, if the government can't provide it, odds are they will seek it themselves, often by turning on the very government that unleashed them. If Chinese papers whipped up the masses, that will put a lot of pressure for Beijing to act tough and not give any ground. That greatly limits the diplomatic options for China.

 

[Blackstone]

Addressing the question raised earlier about why the Chinese media isn't making as meal out of this as the Vietnamese, well, it's down to simply power dynamics and expectation management.

China has all the power and options in this dispute, so it sees little to be threatened or concerned about. It will just do what it pleases/what's in China's best interest. If you have a problem with that, tough cookies. And before anyone starts, this isn't anything new or unprecedented. The very western powers guaranteed to be the first to issue copy and paste pro forma condemnations also tend to be the ones flipping the proverbial bird at the UN and international law when it gets in the way of them doing what they want.

The only real difference is that it is only recently that China has been in any position to dish it out rather than be on the receiving end.

Beijing is also aware that a mob is unpredictable and dangerous, and can often needlessly complicate a situation and/or be counterproductive. As the Vietnamese are learning now it seems.

A worked up mob wants blood, if the government can't provide it, odds are they will seek it themselves, often by turning on the very government that unleashed them. If Chinese papers whipped up the masses, that will put a lot of pressure for Beijing to act tough and not give any ground. That greatly limits the diplomatic options for China.

In addition, the CCP knows drumming up nationalism could cut both ways, so the apparatchiks exercise restraint from its excessive use for self-preservation.

 

[port_08]

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...
F.Y. Hong, president of Taiwan's Formosa Industries Corp, one of the firms to be attacked, said about 300 rioters looted televisions, computers and personal belongings of workers.

"Due to the limited number of police, they couldn't stop the looters. The situation was like in a country where there were no authorities to protect its people," Hong said.
...

Pretty bad, Vietnam economy just taken a hit and from such situation seems future will always be crisis there. Their share market drop and mob rule can threaten business activities. Investment in Vietnam will be affected for a while. It's a bit volatile to invest in Vietnam if there's no law and order, some factories might shift to Cambodia if political stability did not prevail. Cambodia is more friendlier at the moment, neutral without conflict such as with their bigger region partner like China. Looking at the unrest would be wiser investment might be shifted somewhere else because this situation will likely continue for a decade or 2. Growth will be affected for Vietnam and some unrest will happen as Vietnam will face a 'democratization' or their own Arab spring soon. (people without work, restless youth, idealist, idle mind breeds the devil so they say) will always create their own revolution.

 

[port_08]

Meanwhile in Vietnam...

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Yes, some stunted growth for this year for Vietnam. Some of these factories can shift to other Asean states like Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia...they need more jobs there.

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...
Taiwanese firms invested US$27.3 billion in Vietnam in 2,301 projects from 1988 to March of this year, making Taiwan the fourth largest source of foreign investment in the country, according to Vietnamese government data.
...

A lot of these jobs gone, for eg. Americans are clamouring to bring back some manufacturing jobs back to cure their high unemployment. The SCS dispute could affect many future economic investment

 

[nemo]

Yes, some stunted growth for this year for Vietnam. Some of these factories can shift to other Asean states like Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia...they need more jobs there.

Philippine is anti-Chinese also, and also have dispute with China. So as far as risk is concerned, there is really not much difference.

Thailand is unstable politically right now. And both Thailand and Malaysia have wage level that is above that of China, so there isn't any point economically to relocate there rather than relocate back to China.