BEIJING—The landlocked African kingdom of Lesotho doesn’t have an obvious stake in the South China Sea, but it is among some 60 countries that China says stand behind it as it faces potential censure by an international tribunal over its territorial claims there.
The sudden involvement of Lesotho and other small nations far from Asia is the product of
in the final countdown to a ruling in The Hague, which could come this month, on a case brought against China by the Philippines.
The response has been less enthusiastic than China suggests, however: Only eight countries have publicly stated their support for its right to
.
They are Afghanistan, Gambia, Kenya, Niger, Sudan, Togo, Vanuatu and Lesotho, according to public statements reviewed separately by The Wall Street Journal and the Center for Strategic and International Studies, or CSIS, in Washington.
Five countries on China’s list have outright denied backing Beijing, including two members of the European Union.
ENLARGE
For a country that has
for “internationalizing” the dispute, the drive suggests growing concern in Beijing that the ruling, which can only be enforced through international pressure, could leave it isolated.
The mixed results also show the limits of China’s clout, even among nations hungry for its money.
“This looks more like a coalition of the equivocal, or the simply unaware,” said Euan Graham, an expert on the South China Sea at the Lowy Institute in Sydney.
China says it doesn’t acknowledge the tribunal’s jurisdiction and won’t abide by the ruling on the case brought by the Philippines—one of five governments whose claims in the South China Sea overlap with Beijing’s.
The U.S. and its allies—including the Group of Seven nations—have closed ranks in the past month to urge Beijing to respect the verdict, with U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter warning that
China has responded by accusing the U.S. of “hegemony,” denouncing the tribunal in editorials in local and foreign media, and publicly thanking dozens of nations it says are backing Beijing.
It hasn’t published an official list, but the Foreign Ministry put the total at more than 40 nations last month and state media put it at almost 60 this week.
“Compared to seven or eight countries, this number speaks volumes,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang said Tuesday.
He blamed countries outside the region for broadening the dispute.
“That’s why some countries that care about us and are friendly to us want to understand the real situation,” said Mr. Lu. “After understanding the merits of the issue, they decided to take a stand and uphold justice.”
The eight nations that explicitly back China have all echoed its arguments that Beijing has the right to choose its own method of dispute resolution, according to their public statements.
One, the West African nation of Gambia, has gone as far as to endorse Beijing’s sovereignty claims after switching diplomatic ties to China from Taiwan in March.
China also says many Arab states expressed their support in a “Doha Declaration” at a meeting in Qatar last month. But that declaration hasn’t been made public and neither Qatari nor Chinese officials were able to provide a copy.
One Chinese official said it was still being translated.
Russia, the only major power on China’s list, agrees the dispute shouldn’t be internationalized, but hasn’t explicitly backed Beijing on the tribunal—a position that reflects its close defense ties with Vietnam, one of China’s rivals in the South China Sea.
Greg Poling of the CSIS Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative said many countries appeared to have chosen not to publicly contradict China. “Ultimately, China’s ability to spin a compelling counternarrative and get other nations to buy into it will determine how much pressure it faces,” he said.
China’s Foreign Ministry didn’t respond to a request for comment on the countries that have yet to echo Chinese statements or that deny backing Beijing.
They include Poland, a member of the EU, which as a bloc has backed the arbitration process.
Polish officials were taken aback in April when Beijing suddenly issued a statement that hadn’t been approved by both sides following a meeting between their foreign ministers.
It said Poland supported China’s policy of resolving the dispute “through dialogues and consultations,” making no mention of arbitration.
The statement “did not accurately reflect Poland’s position on the issue of the South China Sea, which has been communicated to the Chinese side,” Poland’s Foreign Ministry said. “That position remains unchanged and is in line with the entire EU’s policies.”
Slovenia, another EU member, and the Balkan state of Bosnia and Herzegovina, also denied official Chinese statements that they backed Beijing on the arbitration.
Most surprising, perhaps, is that China has had trouble winning the support of some smaller nations to which it provides large amounts of aid and investment.
In April, Fiji denied a Chinese official media report that it stood by Beijing on the South China Sea. And when China announced in April an “important consensus” with Laos, Cambodia and Brunei on the South China Sea, those three countries stayed mum. Officials from Laos and Brunei didn’t respond to requests for comment. A Cambodian government spokesman denied his country had reached an agreement with China. “We haven’t changed our position,” he said.
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