China's SCS Strategy Thread

[ahojunk]

This is good news for the region, and without interference from external parties...

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2016-06-15 08:17 | China Daily | Editor: Wang Fan

China and ASEAN members issue call for maritime practical cooperation

Top diplomats from China and the 10 ASEAN countries agreed on Tuesday that the South China Sea issue should be handled properly, reaffirming the need to "jointly ensure peace and stability" in the area.

The 11 countries also called for "maritime practical cooperation" and for early completion of the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea.

The China-ASEAN Special Foreign Ministers Meeting in Yuxi, Yunnan province, was the first of its kind in three years.

Briefing reporters after the meeting, Foreign Minister Wang Yi said the region "should not become another place of turbulence" as the world has already witnessed considerable chaos.

Wang said the closed-door meeting, which was first proposed by members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, was timely, significant and involved strategic communication.

He added that it had achieved its expected goals. China is committed to future meetings to build trust and dispel misunderstandings, he added.

On the sidelines of the convention, Wang embarked on a whirlwind series of meetings with his counterparts from ASEAN countries.

Vietnamese Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Pham Binh Minh told Wang on Monday that his country is ready to tackle maritime differences properly based on the consensus of the party leaders of China and Vietnam.

Wang said, "Both sides (China and ASEAN) should tackle differences properly and jointly safeguard regional peace and stability. They should cherish the hard-won peaceful and stable situation in this region."

Singaporean Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan, who co-chaired the meeting with Wang on Tuesday, said it demonstrates that "ASEAN and China are even able to discuss difficult issues … frankly, constructively and openly".

Ruan Zongze, vice-president of the China Institute of International Studies, said the meeting shows that most ASEAN members will not be "hijacked" by the South China Sea issue and related problems.

China has played a proactive role in boosting integration and development within the ASEAN Community, and such a role has won support from the ASEAN members, Ruan said.

Wei Ling, a professor of Asian studies at China Foreign Affairs University, said China has provided firm support to ASEAN continuously, with this year marking the 25th anniversary of the China-ASEAN dialogue.

"The strategic mutual trust and cooperation between China and ASEAN is a cornerstone of the region's peace and development," Wei said.

 

[dingyibvs]

An actual war would be a disaster for China and the rest of the world.

In the aftermath, think of how much money will then get sucked into arms spending when there are many more pressing needs.

And the broader geopolitical aftereffects will threaten China's plan to lift hundreds of millions from poverty to the middle-class and to move up the technology value chain - to become a wealthy and prosperous hi-tech nation.

Remember that such a China would have an economy some 3x-4x larger than the USA, and would almost certainly have economic and military primacy in Asia

The objective is not to make the Japanese "scream like pigs" as you say.

It is to persuade Japan that they are better off by aligning with China than the USA, through a combination of both carrots and sticks.

It'll most certainly be a disaster. Japan isn't going away any time soon, best to push and pull and convince them to join a China-led order than to engage in open warfare. Nothing will help the west more than for Japan and China to take each other down a notch.

 

[solarz]

It'll most certainly be a disaster. Japan isn't going away any time soon, best to push and pull and convince them to join a China-led order than to engage in open warfare. Nothing will help the west more than for Japan and China to take each other down a notch.

China and Japan have far too much of a bitter history to join in an alliance. The best we can hope for is friendly relations.

In truth, alliances are as much of a hindrance as they are a help. Just look at North Korea. Jefferson said it best: commerce with all nations, alliance with none.

 

[AndrewS]

@solarz

China and Japan have far too much of a bitter history to join in an alliance. The best we can hope for is friendly relations.

In truth, alliances are as much of a hindrance as they are a help. Just look at North Korea. Jefferson said it best: commerce with all nations, alliance with none.

I disagree on that.

Just look at how the Japan-US relationship has changed from WW2 to today, albeit Japan was outright *conquered* by the USA.

At the end of the day, China will only truly be secure when it has good relations with its neighbours and who willingly accept Chinese primacy over that of any distant outside power. That requires close and friendly relations or an outright economic/political/military alliance.

Yes, the alliance that China has with North Korea is a hindrance, precisely because North Korea is a basketcase that has to face a much larger South Korea just across the border.

In comparison, a Sino-Japanese alliance would not be a hindrance, and would be an asset to both China or Japan.

At the moment, Japan faces a China which has an economy some 3-4x larger. Furthermore, China will likely add another Japan-sized economy in the next 4years, yet it will still be growing fast as China has 10x the population.

So Japan faces the prospect of being drawn into the Chinese economic orbit, but because it doesn't have good relations with China, it will always be insecure due to China's much greater economic and military heft. And when China looks at Japan, it will be sorely tempted to reduce Japan's peacetime economic wealth and industrial capability, because this allows Japan to resist against a China-led order. And a China-led order in WestPac would simply be the natural state of affairs if/when China becomes a wealthy hi-tech country.

From the Chinese side, a Japan which aligns with China will mean the end of the US-Japanese alliance and the departure of the US military, which would be too far away to be a threat against either China or Japan. This also accelerates the day when China has economic and military primacy in the Western Pacific and the SCS. Plus having Japan as a geopolitical ally would be very useful indeed for China.

However, this is a story that will play out over the decades ahead, and which depends largely on how wealthy and technologically sophisticated China becomes.

 

[solarz]

@solarz
I disagree on that.

Just look at how the Japan-US relationship has changed from WW2 to today, albeit Japan was outright *conquered* by the USA.

At the end of the day, China will only truly be secure when it has good relations with its neighbours and who willingly accept Chinese primacy over that of any distant outside power. That requires close and friendly relations or an outright economic/political/military alliance.

Yes, the alliance that China has with North Korea is a hindrance, precisely because North Korea is a basketcase that has to face a much larger South Korea just across the border.

In comparison, a Sino-Japanese alliance would not be a hindrance, and would be an asset to both China or Japan.

At the moment, Japan faces a China which has an economy some 3-4x larger. Furthermore, China will likely add another Japan-sized economy in the next 4years, yet it will still be growing fast as China has 10x the population.

So Japan faces the prospect of being drawn into the Chinese economic orbit, but because it doesn't have good relations with China, it will always be insecure due to China's much greater economic and military heft. And when China looks at Japan, it will be sorely tempted to reduce Japan's peacetime economic wealth and industrial capability, because this allows Japan to resist against a China-led order. And a China-led order in WestPac would simply be the natural state of affairs if/when China becomes a wealthy hi-tech country.

From the Chinese side, a Japan which aligns with China will mean the end of the US-Japanese alliance and the departure of the US military, which would be too far away to be a threat against either China or Japan. This also accelerates the day when China has economic and military primacy in the Western Pacific and the SCS. Plus having Japan as a geopolitical ally would be very useful indeed for China.

However, this is a story that will play out over the decades ahead, and which depends largely on how wealthy and technologically sophisticated China becomes.

The US and Japan do not have an alliance. Japan is a protectorate of the US, and this relationship came about because the US defeated Japan in war, occupied it, and created a system that made Japan dependent on the US for many aspects of their economy and defense.

China is not interested in leading a new world order, or even a regional one. China is interested in building its domestic economy and seeks to create an international environment favorable toward that goal. Perhaps in 50 years, China's priorities will change, but for the foreseeable future, there is nothing to be gained for China to have a military alliance with any nation, including Russia.

Furthermore, China has a better hope of winning over Taiwan before any strategic alliance with Japan. A lot of people make the mistake of believing Japan is an independent nation. It is not. Japan does not have an indepedent military nor an independent foreign policy. Its military is designed to operated as a part of the US military, just as its foreign policies are formulated with US interests at heart.

Note also that when Mao allied China to North Korea, it seemed a pretty obvious decision. North Korea provides a perfect buffer zone against US ambitions.

Today, China isn't propping up NK because it still needs a buffer zone. It is doing so because the alternative is a humanitarian disaster and a flood of refugees across the border.

That's the thing with alliances: things don't always stay the same, and it hard to get off when you are riding a tiger.

 

[Janiz]

The US and Japan do not have an alliance. Japan is a protectorate of the US, and this relationship came about because the US defeated Japan in war, occupied it, and created a system that made Japan dependent on the US for many aspects of their economy and defense.

lol, the level of 'senior members' here

 

[AndrewS]

@solarz

The US and Japan do not have an alliance. Japan is a protectorate of the US, and this relationship came about because the US defeated Japan in war, occupied it, and created a system that made Japan dependent on the US for many aspects of their economy and defense.

China is not interested in leading a new world order, or even a regional one. China is interested in building its domestic economy and seeks to create an international environment favorable toward that goal. Perhaps in 50 years, China's priorities will change, but for the foreseeable future, there is nothing to be gained for China to have a military alliance with any nation, including Russia.

Furthermore, China has a better hope of winning over Taiwan before any strategic alliance with Japan. A lot of people make the mistake of believing Japan is an independent nation. It is not. Japan does not have an indepedent military nor an independent foreign policy. Its military is designed to operated as a part of the US military, just as its foreign policies are formulated with US interests at heart.

Note also that when Mao allied China to North Korea, it seemed a pretty obvious decision. North Korea provides a perfect buffer zone against US ambitions.

Today, China isn't propping up NK because it still needs a buffer zone. It is doing so because the alternative is a humanitarian disaster and a flood of refugees across the border.

That's the thing with alliances: things don't always stay the same, and it hard to get off when you are riding a tiger.

The thing to remember is that all alliances are inherently unequal, so there is normally a pecking order.

I would agree Japan is effectively a protectorate of the US, but that is still an alliance with mutual obligations.

Now, I would also agree that China is not interested in creating an entirely new world order. The existing US-led order has, by and large, been critical in propelling China's growth for the past 30 years. But that is not to say that there aren't things China disagrees with or that China thinks it has enough decision making influence in the existing system.

Yes, China is primarily focused on domestic economic development, but seriously, do you think China is particularly happy with the existing security architecture in North East Asia?

China is allied with the basketcase that is North Korea, and is a neighbour to a South Korea and Japan who have economic and military alliances with the USA. Those alliances give the US the capability to project power from across the Pacific, and potentially strike or strangle the development of the Chinese economy, if it chooses to do so. A favourable development environment for China would see this potential (but unlikely) threat removed from the equation.

I still believe in the value of China being allied with SK and Japan, for example. There are numerous economic, political and military benefits to this, plus they do not bring any real external disputes that could drag China into a conflict that it is not in its interest. In fact, it would reduce the involvement of the US in Asia, and reduce the amount of friction that we see because the US would have less reason to be involved.

In comparison, an overt Chinese-Russian alliance would not be in China's interest - as it would drag China into all sorts of disputes all around the world.

Yes, Taiwan would happen sooner and is more likely than Japan. But if/when China becomes way bigger than the US+Japan combined - the benefits of a US-Japanese alliance become very questionable for both sides.

As for NK, I think the buffer zone argument is at least as valid as the humanitarian one about refugees. NK does tie up SK and the US, but if NK was to experience serious internal stability, I think it would be better for China to allow the Korean peninsula to be reunified as long as the US military alliance is terminated and all troops withdrawn.

This is kind of all off-topic, but the nature of strategy and the geography involved means NE Asia is interlinked with SCS strategy. China can apply pressure or inducements to various different points to produce results elsewhere in the region.

 

[Lezt]

the Sino-North Korean Mutual Aid and Cooperation Friendship Treaty is not really an alliance, its a mutual defense agreement...

 

[solarz]

lol, the level of 'senior members' here

lol, ignored list!

 

[tidalwave]

Vietnam lost a SU-30 MK2 and a pilot in SCS and then lost another plane, a search n rescue plane with 9 people for that plane. Nam looks like is not ready for anything despite some said it's the potent one in ASEAN therefore US wants to build it up.

Vietnamese coastguard plane, which was searching for a missing fighter jet and its pilot, disappeared off the radar on Thursday, local media and a military official said, the second such setback in three days.
The CASA C212 plane carrying nine people went missing off the northern town of Hai Phong about noon local time, local media reported, citing military and provincial sources.
The coastguard plane was joining thousands of people looking for a pilot who went missing with a Sukhoi SU-30 MK2 fighter jet on Tuesday along the central part of the country coastline.