China's SCS Strategy Thread

port_08

Junior Member
One he is suspended at the moment. two that's not how it works as the policy affirms individual donation limits but does not limit to overall donation. IE I can contribute a $5200 donation to a primary candidate but that max's the donation for the individual, this over turn says I can donate that $5200 to however many candidates I please. This effects both right and left as both sides have there moneybags.

now lets get back on topic.

This allows setup of proxy accounts, individual accounts that led to the main. It doesn't matter Obama opens up 1 account or 100000000 accounts, all in the name of his glory party. Just some legal loophole.... I don't suppose you think the once security Tzar Zhou of the PRC hold all the BILLIONS of dollars under his name account do you? Come on, don't be naive....
 

TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King
Its American campaign law not Chinese, the Chinese will do what ever they like and it has or should have little two do with the Imperial President Obama. American political runs are a virtual colonoscopy. If the tax people don't catch it, the papers will every dollar spent in the election has to be accounted for, and the exact account if came from monitored. If a check shows up from a strange account but tracks for a campaign expense every would be Lois Lane on the planet is going to start smelling scandal. Last I am saying on that topic as its OFF TOPIC!!

second article back on topic.
deployment of troops to evict the Philippine Marines would likely result in a major international incident with the charge of piracy added to boot.
and if one hair on one Philippine Marines head is hurt in the operation its a full conflict.
that's why the Philippines stationed the ship there and why they have Marines onboard.
the Chinese coast guard seems to want to starve them out. Blockade support ships that move in to resupply. Mean time they have constructed a number of there own permanent structures on other Atolls. Using the same logic. IE possession being 9/10ths of the law.
 

port_08

Junior Member
...
second article back on topic.
deployment of troops to evict the Philippine Marines would likely result in a major international incident with the charge of piracy added to boot.
and if one hair on one Philippine Marines head is hurt in the operation its a full conflict.
that's why the Philippines stationed the ship there and why they have Marines onboard.
the Chinese coast guard seems to want to starve them out. Blockade support ships that move in to resupply. Mean time they have constructed a number of there own permanent structures on other Atolls. Using the same logic. IE possession being 9/10ths of the law.

From the PRC opinion and point of view, the Philippines Marines is currently "illegally" occupying their sovereign territory and warrant an eviction by force if necessary.

I'm not sure have PRC back away or afraid of conflict. Let's be realistic, I don't think PRC or Americanos for that matter willing to exchange nuclear salvos over some rustic bucket of a ship and reef and sorry to say, some lives of the Philippine marines. We have seen it in the Crimean crisis.

With these prodding on by either party, things will come to a boil definitely. I'm sure each side already have their calculus factored in.

The strategy employed by Phillipine is correct, try put world attention, bring in heavier power allies, build alliances, acussations, so on and so forth, predictive future newscasting. It's a court of world opinion anyways. But we know history is written by the victors. Hard power talk, bullshit walks and that's unfortunate reality.

The PRC is hell bent to make it a Chinese lake and claim their "historical" right, they have fought so many wars even before the birth of US. That egotism and mindset still lingers on unfortunately on the current PRC leadership and they even dream about it via the Chinese dream. The motives are clear...and the world be ready.
 

TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King
First this is not like the Crimea, there is no land nor people other then the Philippine Marines. If this was a actual Island with people who not only could but wanted to trace there line back to China that's your Crimea.
and even then there are questions as to whether the peoples wanted to join the PRC or like we see in Taipei are pushing for there own state.

But this is a Atoll a submerged mass of rock in the middle of nowhere. Atolls are not recognized as territory. They are junk. Second there are seven Marines. If the PRC was burning with nationalistic fever to exile them then why haven't they? There may not be want to trade nukes but China knows what it can and cannot get away with. There aim it seems to me is to play at denial. Its like the old saying about boiling a frog. Put him in boiling water he will jump out but put him in cold water and slowly turn up the heat. We have seen it before the big belly surround the territory and wait. Cut off resupply and wait. Wait until the Philippines have to abandon it. Then move in for the kill.
The Chinese may consider it there's but so do the Philippines. Just because China is the big dragon of Asia does not mean she always gets her way. The leadership knows this so they play the game.
they will wait until there is a Typhoon that forces the Marines back home. Or they cut them off from aid and are forced to leave or starve. They wait because once the old rust bucket is empty the PRC moves in and sinks her then sets up there own base.
 

port_08

Junior Member
First this is not like the Crimea, there is no land nor people other then the Philippine Marines. If this was a actual Island with people who not only could but wanted to trace there line back to China that's your Crimea.
and even then there are questions as to whether the peoples wanted to join the PRC or like we see in Taipei are pushing for there own state.

But this is a Atoll a submerged mass of rock in the middle of nowhere. Atolls are not recognized as territory. They are junk. Second there are seven Marines. If the PRC was burning with nationalistic fever to exile them then why haven't they? There may not be want to trade nukes but China knows what it can and cannot get away with. There aim it seems to me is to play at denial. Its like the old saying about boiling a frog. Put him in boiling water he will jump out but put him in cold water and slowly turn up the heat. We have seen it before the big belly surround the territory and wait. Cut off resupply and wait. Wait until the Philippines have to abandon it. Then move in for the kill.
The Chinese may consider it there's but so do the Philippines. Just because China is the big dragon of Asia does not mean she always gets her way. The leadership knows this so they play the game.
they will wait until there is a Typhoon that forces the Marines back home. Or they cut them off from aid and are forced to leave or starve. They wait because once the old rust bucket is empty the PRC moves in and sinks her then sets up there own base.

Russian does this very well, just evict the natives and put in your people, calls referendum and walah...that piece of land is yours. Come on, don't be this naive. We see this in Falkland, Kuril , Crimea (I heard it belongs to the native Tartars anyway) and god knows everywhere. You notice the middle east? That little birth place of Jesus? What is that? the country call Israel...I heard it belongs to somebody else and they have not resolve the conflict for god knows how many years. Some country got away with it, some do not. Some got entire continent for free...just a bit south of Indonesia and they are sending refugees, asylum seekers there everyday and god knows how many sink to depth of seas or pack into sardines in some forsaken island. Please, stop this game of naivety. People can push all they want, it's depend who recognized them.

Let's be frank, to evict the Philippine marines is hardly difficult operation wise for the Chinese navy. No need to wait for typhoon, or whatsoever. I'm sure any self respecting ambitious blue ocean navy if cannot take on a reef full dozen of fighting spirit opponent marines cannot be taken seriously in their global ambition.

There are political considerations. The bridges are not burn completely, a small plank is extended to the current Philippine leadership. The communist party isn't going anywhere but the Philippine administration will turnover. Today they have Aquino, tomorrow Gloria, then back again Aquino sister or brother and who knows Marcos grandson comes into power next. Then maybe they negotiate, joint production or sign away the reef or I get 2 fish, you get 1 fish. I don't know.

Anyway, the current Philippines leadership can bang pots and pans, there are plenty of time or not.

A small plank is there...next probably some rope, then a string. When all hope is lost....then the Chinese navy will move in.
 

TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King
Once more there is no land to take. The Shoal is submerged. There are no peoples only the Marines. There are no structures only a rusting ship. Its not worth the troubles. Your trying to justify the wrong argument. This is not Israel (which has evidence for continual Jewish communities) this is not Russia this is not even land its a point in the ocean. The historical claims are useless as it was not even inhabitable without grounding a ship. Its a dispute over territorial waters based on a ship wreck hazard. Its like trying to claim open space. There is nothing there save for what is placed there.
 

joshuatree

Captain
deployment of troops to evict the Philippine Marines would likely result in a major international incident with the charge of piracy added to boot.
and if one hair on one Philippine Marines head is hurt in the operation its a full conflict.
that's why the Philippines stationed the ship there and why they have Marines onboard.
the Chinese coast guard seems to want to starve them out. Blockade support ships that move in to resupply. Mean time they have constructed a number of there own permanent structures on other Atolls. Using the same logic. IE possession being 9/10ths of the law.

Don't believe much of the media has scrutinized the resupply ships. The supply run that was turned around the first time did not carry a boatload of journalists to "observe" and it was supposedly two supply ships. If they were indeed carrying supplies to erect a more permanent structure, then can't really blame Chinese CG for taking the action of blockade as you say, possession being 9/10ths of the law. The Philippines has been waging a constant propaganda war so it's not as a benign victim as it tries to portray itself. Once the Philippines gets more military assets such as ships and planes, it's a two way street. One hair lost on any Chinese Coast Guard member can also be a catalyst for a full conflict. In that case, does the US violate the concept of a defense treaty and come to Philippine's aid even if the Philippines fires first?


Once more there is no land to take. The Shoal is submerged. There are no peoples only the Marines. There are no structures only a rusting ship. Its not worth the troubles. Your trying to justify the wrong argument. This is not Israel (which has evidence for continual Jewish communities) this is not Russia this is not even land its a point in the ocean. The historical claims are useless as it was not even inhabitable without grounding a ship. Its a dispute over territorial waters based on a ship wreck hazard. Its like trying to claim open space. There is nothing there save for what is placed there.

Even disregarding historical claims (which the Philippines also uses as an argument vis-a-vis all the Spanish maps it points out), the shoal can fall under EEZs. In the Spratlys, the only island that stands out clearly having the ability to generate its own EEZ is Taiping because it's the only island to have its own natural freshwater supply. I believe this shoal is still within 200 nm of Taiping.
 
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port_08

Junior Member
True. What is EEZ anyway? There's no difference between the principle behind having a landmass that can generate economic benefit out of it and the "sea". Beneath it, it is still a landmass, only cover by body of water.

Human truly are wonders and there's no stopping greed and capability of their ingenuity of creating various ways, means, laws or devices to expand their lust of land grabbing.

It's pretty straight forward, you stake your claim, and you must have the means to protect them.

A country without power, can cry, shout and throw tantrums or whatever. The cold hard truth is the strong overcome the weak. Philippine must try extract very maximum what they can gain out of these and we must applaud them for the effort. It's the underdog stories we always love, and Hollywood easily can make billions out of those movies.

Reality, telling the Lion do not, not have the urge, not have the desire to maul the parading lamb is too much.

Any defense minister worth it salt especially the Phillipines, should quickly sign more contracts to buy weapons to deter the Lion (which is now at its doorstep). Better yet, bring in Elephants, Hyenas, Leapord or Zebra or 2 on its side. There's comfort in groups.:p

Ahh, I just want to add, another paradigm is the Lion wants to control the waterhole where everyone drinks...
 
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Engineer

Major
If I remember well around 3/4 of people were against signing CSSTA in March so I suppose that most of them think - keep mainland China's economy away from our little island! It's not only students who protest. The core of Taiwanese economy, which is the core of every healthy and sound economy which Taiwanese surely is, are small to medium businesses which also feel 'threat' of mainland money and cheaper manpower which they obviously can't compete with. Some 12k new workplaces created, as those were the numbers used by the government, surely won't emulate the amount of the sacked workers in the coming years on Taiwan.
Healthy and sound economy which Taiwan is not. Issues such as unemployment being faced by Taiwan are not unique and are happening all over the world. On top of that, the island is simply not competitive. It's just more easy for people to blame the bogeyman China than to admit their own incompetence.

Reports about rallies were saying about 100-500k protesting. I can only call this number gigantic in 23 million country when it comes to number of people ready to go the streets and voice their minds about something. Of course there are various groups but the main message is 'we don't want closer economic ties with mainland China'. They just don't want entire Taiwan to become 'China Times'.
These people are protesting for the sake of protesting against China more than they are protesting against closer economic ties. When people have been brainwashed for decades that "China is evil commie out to kill your entire family", you can't expect them to think rationally when it comes to China.
 
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