China's SCS Strategy Thread

[port_08]

He means that there are many other coast guards of other more aggressive nations, both currently and historically, who are more deserving of the title of "bullies".

Actually, might makes right. This is the law of the world. Sometimes I wish the Chinese navy be a bit more aggressive. Just like smacking little children, sometimes you have to, because although nowadays, we just tell children don't do this or do that, they would not listen to you sometimes. This is where spanking of the bottom required.

Chinese special forces or marines may start practicing to evict the Philippines soldiers, I'm sure they already have plans and some Zubr or 2 will rolls right in when needed. It may take a spark somewhere, and a scenario like the Paracel island battle may play out and more reefs will fall under Chinese military once they sent in the troops.

Is like some clowns jumping up and down in front of 500 pound gorilla, taunting it with bananas. Is just pending the gorilla to snap. =)

 

[nemo]

Actually very sad. Taiwan is just a small country, anyone can shoot dead and I don't think Taiwanese military can do anything to the Philippines.

Are you kidding? ROCN (Taiwan) is one of the more powerful navy in East and SE Asia. It's navy is about the same size as South Korea -- it should be ranked among top 4 in the region. Any one of it's capital ships can sunk all of what junk Philippine call its navy.

 

[EblisTx]

Are you kidding? ROCN (Taiwan) is one of the more powerful navy in East and SE Asia. It's navy is about the same size as South Korea -- it should be ranked among top 4 in the region. Any one of it's capital ships can sunk all of what junk Philippine call its navy.

on paper, you are absolutely right. but look at what they have (not) done for the past few decades, i have different idea.

do not use text message abbreviations.

bd popeye super moderator

 

[port_08]

Are you kidding? ROCN (Taiwan) is one of the more powerful navy in East and SE Asia. It's navy is about the same size as South Korea -- it should be ranked among top 4 in the region. Any one of it's capital ships can sunk all of what junk Philippine call its navy.

Taiwan have no political will or military readiness for a protracted conflict with Philippine or ability to enforce their claims for disputed reefs or islands. A paper tiger. Remember, they are the loser of the Chinese civil war and their population is probably too pampered and soft to take up conflict at seas. There are bigger liberal power and NGOs having influence over them like US and Japan and have decision influencing their leaders of military option. Too unfathomable for them to sink another US allies where they do buying current weapon system from.

Now, China Chinese commies are different, these are probably the tougher big brother, they have taken the UN + US army singlehandedly in Korean war. They blasted the Vietnamese, whacked the Indians and even Russia fear them. Probably Philippine armies are peanuts to them. These tough guys even drive kamikaze styles their warship into US Cowpen and what can the US do? They have captured so many US prisoners at one time or the other and give them nice prison meals and even organized the Olympic for them in prison

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I'm sure there will come a time military action by these Chinese commies are inevitable, and probably just bidding for the right opportunity. I don't trust much Xi no hegemony claim. Their navy is getting bigger and bigger, more ships and carriers and submarines need more playground. So many warships concentrated in one area definitely something will happen. I do hope Phillipines spend some monies to buy more warship and make more ties to the US. Better get it on paper to spelt out what US should do when they were attacked because, for sure China will attack when the time comes. Chinese special marines are watching the Phillipine shoals and reefs closing, in their secret hideout, they have already plan, how many Phillipines soldiers are there, what facilities they are trying to do, how to take them out, so they better prepare night vision googles, and keep a constant lookout cause...the commies are coming. And they will come.

 

[nemo]

Taiwan have no political will or military readiness for a protracted conflict with Philippine or ability to enforce their claims for disputed reefs or islands. A paper tiger. Remember, they are the loser of the Chinese civil war and their population is probably too pampered and soft to take up conflict at seas. There are bigger liberal power and NGOs having influence over them like US and Japan and have decision influencing their leaders of military option. Too unfathomable for them to sink another US allies where they do buying current weapon system from.

Since when self restraint and being adult equals weakness? The fact that Philippine managed to pissed off a normally mild and polite Ma enough that he send warships take some doing. It's to his credit that he resist the popular pressure to be even more hardline. Don't think it's just a bluff -- if Ma is pissed enough to send the navy, he would have given them the authorization to shoot if Philippine tries anything funny.

And if you think he couldn't get away if he smack the Filipinos, think again. Taiwan is ultimately more important than Philippine. And US tries to restrain Taiwan publicly, the popular opinion will turn toward China.

And if you think Taiwan's military are not ready, think again. It's Air Force can scramble 2-3 minutes when the order is given -- not a lot of air forces can claim that. And Taiwan can manufacture most of its consumable munitions. At very minimum, Taiwan is able to maintain and service high tech weaponry. That is something Philippine cannot claim.

Chinese civil war is over sixty years ago -- I don't see how that is relevant in this discussion. And Chinese civil war is a very special circumstances -- hyperinflation resulting from devastation of WW-2, and Communist insurgency with superpower support. Even though ROC is on the losing side, they have multitude of operational experience in land , sea, and air that cannot be matched by anything in Philippine's military history.

If you think Philippine would have a chance taking on Taiwan, I see no factual support. The discrepancy in capability between Taiwan is Philippine is wider than US and China, for example.

Now, China Chinese commies are different, these are probably the tougher big brother, they have taken the UN + US army singlehandedly in Korean war. They blasted the Vietnamese, whacked the Indians and even Russia fear them. Probably Philippine armies are peanuts to them. These tough guys even drive kamikaze styles their warship into US Cowpen and what can the US do? They have captured so many US prisoners at one time or the other and give them nice prison meals and even organized the Olympic for them in prison

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It will not require any sort of physical courage to fight against Filipinos. The technological difference is such that Philippine navy will simply be blasted from beyond the range they can respond. And Philippine Navy lack any sort of air defense or point defense. Taiwan is one of the handful of nations that actually developed supersonic anti-ship missile.

I'm sure there will come a time military action by these Chinese commies are inevitable, and probably just bidding for the right opportunity. I don't trust much Xi no hegemony claim. Their navy is getting bigger and bigger, more ships and carriers and submarines need more playground. So many warships concentrated in one area definitely something will happen. I do hope Phillipines spend some monies to buy more warship and make more ties to the US. Better get it on paper to spelt out what US should do when they were attacked because, for sure China will attack when the time comes. Chinese special marines are watching the Phillipine shoals and reefs closing, in their secret hideout, they have already plan, how many Phillipines soldiers are there, what facilities they are trying to do, how to take them out, so they better prepare night vision googles, and keep a constant lookout cause...the commies are coming. And they will come.

So why are you provoking China? China's stance is reactive assertiveness (i.e. passive aggressive). If you don't provoke them, they don't have an excuse to crush you. In Scarsborough shoal, you used a naval ship against civilian ship. In Ayugin shoal, you tried to build permanent structures.

And it's too late to build an navy -- building a competent navy will take decades. And even if you do, you cannot match Chinese Coast guard, not to mention Chinese Navy. Chinese Coast guard actually out mass both South Korean and Taiwanese Navy combined, FYI.

Provoking a conflict without a mean to back it out is idiotic and foolhardy. I fail to see reason behind it.

 

[Rutim]

And if you think he couldn't get away if he smack the Filipinos, think again. Taiwan is ultimately more important than Philippine. And US tries to restrain Taiwan publicly, the popular opinion will turn toward China.

Young people on Taiwan spoke their minds recently with the biggest rallies in the modern history of Taiwan. And it wasn't pro-Chinese but completely opposite... Nothing changed there in almost 70 years when it comes to their views on 'big brother' from the continent and I don't know what could turn people there more towards PRC. Maybe Russians landing on Taiwan?

 

[Blitzo]

@ port08

If you think Taiwan lacks the political will to take on the Philippines if the situation ever arises where Taiwan feels its sovereignty or citizens are under threat, you are mistaken. Nor is taiwan's military a paper tiger. The Philippines navy's biggest ship are the couple of refurbished Hamilton class cutters. They even lack harpoon at the moment.

The ROCN's largest ships are the near-ticonderoga displacement kidd class DDG, of which they have four. They also have numerous la fayette, oliver hazard perry, and Knox class FFGs, each of which is far superior to the refurbished Hamiltons the Philippines has.

If the two navies ever came to blows, the Phillippines would be far outmatched.


@rutim

I think taking rallies from a mob of students and generalizing it to the island at large is incorrect. Certainly saying "opinions haven't changed in 70 years" is BS, because opinions definitely have changed. Both sides aren't itching to "liberate" the other through force, at least, and the pseudo religious democratic zealotry by college students riding on a collective emotional high who think they're well informed is hardly deriving wide scale support from the Taiwanese populace.

And their rally turn out is not as high as some recent historical political rallies, I think pan blue had some 500,000. (But to be fair it is difficult to ascertain accurate numbers, where protesters always seek to inflate their own turn out)

 

[volleyballer]

Taiwan have no political will or military readiness for a protracted conflict with Philippine or ability to enforce their claims for disputed reefs or islands. A paper tiger. Remember, they are the loser of the Chinese civil war and their population is probably too pampered and soft to take up conflict at seas. There are bigger liberal power and NGOs having influence over them like US and Japan and have decision influencing their leaders of military option. Too unfathomable for them to sink another US allies where they do buying current weapon system from.

I agree with Blitzio, self-restraint does not equal unpreparedness. As far as I know, there was a serious thirst for blood amongst the Taiwanese public during this incident. The government exercised self-restraint and opted for a show of force instead. Fact is, the ROC in a conflict with the PH of today, will totally own the air and sea. There should not be any doubt of that. Furthermore, the public will welcome this very very much and the president will get a huge boost in popularity.

The only obstacle in all of this is of course the United States. No way they will allow this to happen.

 

[Rutim]

I think taking rallies from a mob of students and generalizing it to the island at large is incorrect. Certainly saying "opinions haven't changed in 70 years" is BS, because opinions definitely have changed. Both sides aren't itching to "liberate" the other through force, at least, and the pseudo religious democratic zealotry by college students riding on a collective emotional high who think they're well informed is hardly deriving wide scale support from the Taiwanese populace.

And their rally turn out is not as high as some recent historical political rallies, I think pan blue had some 500,000. (But to be fair it is difficult to ascertain accurate numbers, where protesters always seek to inflate their own turn out)

If I remember well around 3/4 of people were against signing CSSTA in March so I suppose that most of them think - keep mainland China's economy away from our little island! It's not only students who protest. The core of Taiwanese economy, which is the core of every healthy and sound economy which Taiwanese surely is, are small to medium businesses which also feel 'threat' of mainland money and cheaper manpower which they obviously can't compete with. Some 12k new workplaces created, as those were the numbers used by the government, surely won't emulate the amount of the sacked workers in the coming years on Taiwan.

Reports about rallies were saying about 100-500k protesting. I can only call this number gigantic in 23 million country when it comes to number of people ready to go the streets and voice their minds about something. Of course there are various groups but the main message is 'we don't want closer economic ties with mainland China'. They just don't want entire Taiwan to become 'China Times'.

 

[jobjed]

If I remember well around 3/4 of people were against signing CSSTA in March so I suppose that most of them think - keep mainland China's economy away from our little island! It's not only students who protest. The core of Taiwanese economy, which is the core of every healthy and sound economy which Taiwanese surely is, are small to medium businesses which also feel 'threat' of mainland money and cheaper manpower which they obviously can't compete with. Some 12k new workplaces created, as those were the numbers used by the government, surely won't emulate the amount of the sacked workers in the coming years on Taiwan.

Reports about rallies were saying about 100-500k protesting. I can only call this number gigantic in 23 million country when it comes to people ready to go the streets and voice their minds about something. Of course there are various groups but the main message is 'we don't want closer economic ties with mainland China'.

Wrong, what these students are primarily afraid of is the mainland's politics. In the words of one of their key organisers; "this agreement is unconstitutional, goes against public opinion and is detrimental to our democracy."