China's SCS Strategy Thread

[Air Force Brat]

You think I'm only looking at the Chinese point of view?
Have you lived and traveled around South East Asia or WestPac?

From their perspective they don't particularly like the prospect of future Chinese hegemony, but neither do they particularly like the current US hegemon (Philippines/Japan excluded).

Remember that the US is an imperialistic warmongering hegemon that has been constantly invading countries in the name of freedom, yet leaving those same liberated countries in chaos and worse off than before.

If we look at Laos, Thailand and Cambodia - they've all accepted that they have to take into account Chinese interests first - and are pretty happy to be proto-client states.

The attitude in Singapore, Malaysia, Brunei and Myanmar is that China is too big to ignore, and certainly too big to overtly challenge because of the consequences, which is much like how the US is regarded. Singapore in particular is preparing for the day when China displaces the US in Asia and they are not shy about saying this publicly. As a small wealthy trading one-party city-state surrounded by much larger Muslim neighbours, they don't have the luxury of deluding themselves on the balance of power and what that means for their foreign policy.

Then we have Indonesia focused on internal economic growth and the challenges of keeping the archipelago nation/empire together. And remember that Australia (supported by the US) liberated East Timor in the name of freedom not so long ago. From their perspective, it is Australia and the US that is the biggest threat to their country - and it is Indonesia that dominates ASEAN and SE Asia.

Vietnam and Korea are the closest to China and therefore the most vulnerable in terms of military and economic disparity, as they are geographically isolated. So they face the prospect of Finlandisation or possibly Canadisation/Mexicanisation.


Remember that China is not going to go around conquering the populations of other countries, and the sovereignty disputes relate to a bunch of uninhabited islands. So what threat does China actually pose to the liberty and sovereignty of other nations?

My apology was for my own bad attitude, and the fact that my beautiful country has a quasi communist dictator at its helm, who has dissed each and everyone of our friends, and contributed to dismantling many of the stable govts of the mid-East. He has had a more destructive effect on the US military and Economy than any other factor in the last half century.

I'm not apologizing for the US Constitution, or the Govt of the People, for the People, and by the People, but sadly many of those who now vote, have no sense of the sacrifices made by true Patriots for their Liberation, and care little for the Liberties and Blessings paid for in the blood of the Saints?

That's why people continue to beat down the doors to get in??? rather than to get out??? LOL

and YES, I have lived in Japan!

 

[AndrewS]

Apology accepted.

But remember that the Japanese are an insular nation, and consider themselves separate/different/superior to the rest of Asia.

However, with the rapid rise of China, they are having a lot of trouble adjusting to the fact that China is now way bigger, and that they are geographically and culturally just another smaller Asian nation in Chinese eyes.

When Abe first became Prime Minister in 2006, Japan's economy was almost twice as larger as China.
In 2009, the Chinese had caught up to the same level
In 2012, the Chinese economy became 2x larger
In 2016, the Chinese economy is now 3x larger
By 2020, the Chinese economy will likely be 4x larger.

Yet the Japanese establishment is comprised of very old, conservative and inflexible men - whose worldviews resist change.

Remember that the Japanese home islands are only 800km from Shanghai on mainland China, which is well within fighter and cruise missile range, and which means both sides can bring most of their military forces against each other. And if we look to a map, we can see that Japan is an isolated country on the fringe of Asia, and that its natural trade/investment partner is China.
Plus

 

[Air Force Brat]

Apology accepted.

But remember that the Japanese are an insular nation, and consider themselves separate/different/superior to the rest of Asia.

However, with the rapid rise of China, they are having a lot of trouble adjusting to the fact that China is now way bigger, and that they are geographically and culturally just another smaller Asian nation in Chinese eyes.

When Abe first became Prime Minister in 2006, Japan's economy was almost twice as larger as China.
In 2009, the Chinese had caught up to the same level
In 2012, the Chinese economy became 2x larger
In 2016, the Chinese economy is now 3x larger
By 2020, the Chinese economy will likely be 4x larger.

Yet the Japanese establishment is comprised of very old, conservative and inflexible men - whose worldviews resist change.

Remember that the Japanese home islands are only 800km from Shanghai on mainland China, which is well within fighter and cruise missile range, and which means both sides can bring most of their military forces against each other. And if we look to a map, we can see that Japan is an isolated country on the fringe of Asia, and that its natural trade/investment partner is China.
Plus

Thank You! and Jesus offered, "Let him who has no sin, cast the first stone" to those who had brought the woman taken in adultery to be stoned. I'm working on my country, I suggest you work on yours?? that's why we are in the mess we are, I can truly say that most Americans have a big heart and care about others, even those in other countries. and no Nation has been there for others before the USA.

 

[AndrewS]

I've only been to China on holidays, but it is useful to note that work is a big part of the Chinese psyche.

You can see it in the Communist Party greetings which frequently begin, "thank you for your hard work (suffering)"
And in everyday normal conversation as well.

 

[GreenestGDP]

China helps Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam by reducing the most severe drought since 1900 caused by El Nino

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[AndrewS]

That does raise an interesting point.

I'm looking at the watershed maps for the rivers that Laos, Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia rely on.
They all originate from China, which is a huge source of leverage.

Maps below

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[Blackstone]

That does raise an interesting point.

I'm looking at the watershed maps for the rivers that Laos, Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia rely on.
They all originate from China, which is a huge source of leverage.

Maps below

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Tibet is the source of four great rivers and control of water is even more precious than control of oil. That's why it's pure fantasy for anyone to think China would allow Tibet to leave. Going forward, it's near certain China would exert more control over the province, and maybe even create incentives for more Han people to move there.

 

[weig2000]

Tibet is the source of four great rivers and control of water is even more precious than control of oil. That's why it's pure fantasy for anyone to think China would allow Tibet to leave. Going forward, it's near certain China would exert more control over the province, and maybe even create incentives for more Han people to move there.

It's much more difficult to imagine that China would allow Tibet to leave than to imagine the US would allow Alaska or Hawaii to leave. Leave aside all the historical or emotional reasons aside, Tibet is a strategic buffer for China, separating its interior from the crowded and not-so-friendly Indian subcontinent.

The main challenge for Han people to settle in Tibet are the high altitude and accessibility. Chinese government does not need to create incentive for Han people to migrate and settle there, it just needs to build more and better infrastructure to integrate Tibet more closely with the rest of the country. And that's what the government has been doing. The Qinghai-Tibet railway was open in 2006. The Sichuan-Tibet railway is planned and has started to be built segment by segment. The Sichuan-Tibet line is much more challenging to build than the Qinghai-Tibet line, but it will connect the much more populous and prosperous Sichuan with Tibet. It will probably be world's most beautiful railway route when completed. Additionally, China is also building the intra-Tibet railway network. The 253 km Lhaaa-Xigaze railway is completed in 2014. The Lhasa-Nyingchi lines was approved in 2014 and is now under construction, and will be part of the Sichuan-Tibet railway eventually.

 

[solarz]

It's much more difficult to imagine that China would allow Tibet to leave than to imagine the US would allow Alaska or Hawaii to leave. Leave aside all the historical or emotional reasons aside, Tibet is a strategic buffer for China, separating its interior from the crowded and not-so-friendly Indian subcontinent.

The main challenge for Han people to settle in Tibet are the high altitude and accessibility. Chinese government does not need to create incentive for Han people to migrate and settle there, it just needs to build more and better infrastructure to integrate Tibet more closely with the rest of the country. And that's what the government has been doing. The Qinghai-Tibet railway was open in 2006. The Sichuan-Tibet railway is planned and has started to be built segment by segment. The Sichuan-Tibet line is much more challenging to build than the Qinghai-Tibet line, but it will connect the much more populous and prosperous Sichuan with Tibet. It will probably be world's most beautiful railway route when completed. Additionally, China is also building the intra-Tibet railway network. The 253 km Lhaaa-Xigaze railway is completed in 2014. The Lhasa-Nyingchi lines was approved in 2014 and is now under construction, and will be part of the Sichuan-Tibet railway eventually.

Tibet is far more than just a buffer zone. It is a strategic stronghold, relatively easy to access and supply from within the Chinese side of the border, but extremely difficult from the other side, giving China a huge strategic advantage against all of its neighbors in the region. If Tibet falls under foreign control, China's western heartland would be under threat.

Tibetan integration faces the same obstacle as Xinjiang integration, namely that of foreign sponsored separatism. As we have seen in Xinjiang, simply settling more Han in the region will not be enough. The key is to bring those provinces into the national economy, turning local residents into stakeholders of stability and growth.

For example, many Tibetan and Uighur farmers and herders live on subsistance income. As such, they have little stake in the economic reforms. If their mode of existence could be changed to make trade with the rest of the country a major source of revenue, then they will have a stake in the integration process.

 

[Equation]

Tibet is far more than just a buffer zone. It is a strategic stronghold, relatively easy to access and supply from within the Chinese side of the border, but extremely difficult from the other side, giving China a huge strategic advantage against all of its neighbors in the region. If Tibet falls under foreign control, China's western heartland would be under threat.

Tibetan integration faces the same obstacle as Xinjiang integration, namely that of foreign sponsored separatism. As we have seen in Xinjiang, simply settling more Han in the region will not be enough. The key is to bring those provinces into the national economy, turning local residents into stakeholders of stability and growth.

For example, many Tibetan and Uighur farmers and herders live on subsistance income. As such, they have little stake in the economic reforms. If their mode of existence could be changed to make trade with the rest of the country a major source of revenue, then they will have a stake in the integration process.

Why can't they seek permission to move to more enriched provinces to live and find work? It's not like they're stuck in place forever?