China's SCS Strategy Thread

[port_08]

Chinese non-interference is directed toward other nations' domestic issues. It is certainly not meant to imply that they will not take part in geopolitical maneuvers.

China should press to be more aggresive while US remain distracted and with the current Ukraine crisis flaring up, demanding more of the US attention back into the EU at the moment. US cannot remain in 2 places at one time and dealing with two geopolitical rivals such as Russia and China with budget cut, debt and deficit. During the cold war, to contain the Soviet Union, US rapprochement with China has help alleviate resources needed for US to put more attention to their eastern side of the pacific. Now that we know US encouraging the pivot advocating containing China with her allies, looking at this geopolitically a slap in the face, China should use the opening chances here it got to advance more of her agenda. She should be more force full and seriously consider formation of ADIZ covering the island claims and take a leaf out Russia bold action when interest is threaten. We know Phillipines are encouraging the US fleet to come, and if China did not plan to setup the ADIZ, her window of opportunity may close soon when US navy ship begin more patrolling the SCS therefore China should seriously consider this within a year or 2.

 

[Lezt]

China should press to be more aggresive while US remain distracted and with the current Ukraine crisis flaring up, demanding more of the US attention back into the EU at the moment. US cannot remain in 2 places at one time and dealing with two geopolitical rivals such as Russia and China with budget cut, debt and deficit. During the cold war, to contain the Soviet Union, US rapprochement with China has help alleviate resources needed for US to put more attention to their eastern side of the pacific. Now that we know US encouraging the pivot advocating containing China with her allies, looking at this geopolitically a slap in the face, China should use the opening chances here it got to advance more of her agenda. She should be more force full and seriously consider formation of ADIZ covering the island claims and take a leaf out Russia bold action when interest is threaten. We know Phillipines are encouraging the US fleet to come, and if China did not plan to setup the ADIZ, her window of opportunity may close soon when US navy ship begin more patrolling the SCS therefore China should seriously consider this within a year or 2.

I don't think that China wants to be portrayed as a land grabbing nation as the actions you suggest would portray. If I am going to my own house that is rightfully mine, why should I wait for a moment when my neighbor is away to do so?

I don't think China will play this zero sum game.

 

[Blackstone]

China should press to be more aggresive while US remain distracted and with the current Ukraine crisis flaring up, demanding more of the US attention back into the EU at the moment. US cannot remain in 2 places at one time and dealing with two geopolitical rivals such as Russia and China with budget cut, debt and deficit.

That's exactly what China's neighbors fear, and doing so would deepen regional concerns about Beijing imposing a modernized form of the Sinic tributary system.

During the cold war, to contain the Soviet Union, US rapprochement with China has help alleviate resources needed for US to put more attention to their eastern side of the pacific. Now that we know US encouraging the pivot advocating containing China with her allies, looking at this geopolitically a slap in the face, China should use the opening chances here it got to advance more of her agenda. She should be more force full and seriously consider formation of ADIZ covering the island claims and take a leaf out Russia bold action when interest is threaten. We know Phillipines are encouraging the US fleet to come, and if China did not plan to setup the ADIZ, her window of opportunity may close soon when US navy ship begin more patrolling the SCS therefore China should seriously consider this within a year or 2.

We agree on TTP and the Pivot/Re-balance being containment instead of hedge, but they're soft containment and not balls-to-the-wall Soviet-era containment. Facts are China is simply too strong and too integrated in the global economy to impose hard containment, so the US and the rest of Chin'a neighbors resorted to a form of soft containment that China can co-op by joining the group. On the flip side, it's China's interest to co-op and not coerce its neighbors, so joining the TTP and following binding codes of conduct are good vehicles to that end.

 

[port_08]

I don't think that China wants to be portrayed as a land grabbing nation as the actions you suggest would portray. If I am going to my own house that is rightfully mine, why should I wait for a moment when my neighbor is away to do so?

I don't think China will play this zero sum game.

I'm not advocating China to "land grab" but in terms recovering back her interest lost during the social political upheavals during the past wars. These are the issues in SCS and the island claims that form what China mention core interest. Provocation embolden by US pivot and nationalists demand by potential adversary countries such as Philippines, Japan etc must be taken into consideration.

We can't say that it is only China wants to play such zero sum game but views and voices emanating from other countries in conflict with China do sounds zero sum at times. What are China to do?

There opportunity to play the China threat and sometimes the best defense is offense.

 

[Blackstone]

I don't think that China wants to be portrayed as a land grabbing nation as the actions you suggest would portray. If I am going to my own house that is rightfully mine, why should I wait for a moment when my neighbor is away to do so?

I don't think China will play this zero sum game.

The ECS and SCS standoffs aren't land grabs but maritime sovereignty, boundary, and resource problems that are not as well-defined by international laws as land borders. Couple that with China's nervous neighbors wondering if the two elephants (US, China) will fight or make love, with them getting crushed either way, and you have the all the ingredients of a perfect storm. We're living in interesting times indeed.

 

[Lezt]

The ECS and SCS standoffs aren't land grabs but maritime sovereignty, boundary, and resource problems that are not as well-defined by international laws as land borders. Couple that with China's nervous neighbors wondering if the two elephants (US, China) will fight or make love, with them getting crushed either way, and you have the all the ingredients of a perfect storm. We're living in interesting times indeed.

I did not say that ECS or SCS standoff are land grabs,

What I meant was: if the ECS and SCS boundary are viewed as Chinese territory, China do not need to wait for an opportunity when the US is preoccupied to move in and police it. Exerting authority when the US is preoccupied will feel more like an expansionist move.

China had not been actively deploying military abroad because of the perceived RED threat, China did send PAP units to UN peace keeping missions as they are "Police" while the other countries sent their army; So China is very conscious of her international persona.

 

[antiterror13]

This really shouldn't be surprising. Indonesia and Malaysia have smaller overlapping claim than Vietnam and the Philippines, and much better relationships with China. China has been courting those two for a while now to prevent any consensus in ASEAN from forming. If anyone IS surprised by this move it's probably because everyone has kept their eye off the ball with all the noise over Vietnam and the Philippines and have forgotten that other countries are involved in the island disputes too, not just with China, but with each other. People forget that while ASEAN is meant to build consensus amongst the SEA countries, what underlies it are far more fractious relationships. China recognizes this and understands that there is an appeal for some countries in using China as leverage against other countries when disputing resources and other economic and security issues.

There is no overlapping claim between China and Indonesia

 

[Blackstone]

Looks like China's Coast Guard chased foreign fishing vessels out of most of the South China Sea. Things could get nasty in a hurry. Not good; the world doesn't need more problems on top of the Ukrainian crisis.

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(Reuters) - Chinese patrols enforcing disputed new fishing rules in the South China Sea are apprehending foreign boats on a weekly basis, Communist Party officials said on Thursday.

In comments that provide the first window on how China is enforcing new rules criticized by Washington, the party secretary for Hainan Island said Chinese patrols attempted to peacefully negotiate with vessels that initially ignored warnings to leave Chinese waters.

"First of all we would try to dissuade them, tell them to get out, this is our area, and then we negotiate and dissuade as much as possible," Luo Baoming, party secretary for Hainan province, said on Thursday.

The Philippines and Vietnam have accused Chinese patrol vessels of firing water cannon and using aggressive means to intimidate and threaten its fishermen near disputed areas.

Luo said that authorities based in Sansha city on Woody Island, which administers the mostly uninhabited Paracel islands, were regularly dealing with fishing vessels entering their waters. Also claimed by Vietnam and Taiwan, Vietnamese fishermen routinely attempt to fish the Paracels, despite hundreds being captured in past campaigns in what Vietnam describes as its legal and sovereign fishing grounds.

Luo did not provide specific numbers but said: "There's something like this happening if not every day then at least once a week, and the majority are dealt with by negotiating and persuasion."

New rules issued by Hainan this year, which say foreign fishing boats need permission to enter waters under its jurisdiction, which essentially covers much of the South China Sea, alarmed the region, already concerned by China's more assertive moves to assert its sovereignty.

The fishing rules follow China's creation of a controversial air defense identification zone in late November above the East China Sea in an area that includes islands at the heart of a bitter territorial row with Japan.

Ambiguity surrounding the rules - and their future enforcement - have puzzled a nervous region since they were introduced on January 1, apparently stretching into international waters.

Hainan, which juts into the South China Sea from the country's southern tip, says it governs 2 million square kilometers of water, according to local government data issued in 2011. The South China Sea is an estimated 3.5 million square km in size.

Beijing claims almost the entire oil- and gas-rich South China Sea, rejecting rival claims to parts of it from the Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia, Brunei and Vietnam.

(Reporting by Natalie Thomas; Additional reporting by Ben Blanchard and Megha Rajagopalan, Editing by Greg Torode and Ralph Boulton)

 

[ManilaBoy45]

Chinese Ships Blocked 2 PHL Vessels' Approach to Shoal in Kalayaan Island Group – DND

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March 10, 2014 10:46pm

The Department of National Defense confirmed on Monday that two Chinese coast guard ships prevented two Philippine vessels from going to Ayungin Shoal in the Kalayaan Island Group on Sunday."The Chinese coast guard ships blocked our two vessels which were en route to Ayungin (Shoal) to reprovision. The full report is being finalized and will be submitted to [the Department of Foreign Affairs]," DND spokesman Peter Paul Galvez said.Reuters reported Monday that China said its coast guard ships had driven away two Philippine vessels which had tried to approach a shoal in the South China Sea in the latest flare-up of a long-running territorial dispute.

The Chinese ships were patrolling waters around Second Thomas Shoal, known in China as the Ren'ai reef and in the Philippines as Ayungin Shoal, when they spotted the Philippine boats, carrying construction materials and Philippine flags, which left the area after being warned off, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang said.Qin said that China had repeatedly demanded the Philippines remove a ship which had been grounded on the shoal in 1999, but that Manila had cited technical reasons for being unable to do so."This time, the Philippine side has again attempted to start construction on the reef," he told a daily news briefing. "The moves infringed China's sovereignty."China had no choice but to respond to the Philippines' moves, Qin added.

 

[Blackstone]

Chinese Ships Blocked 2 PHL Vessels' Approach to Shoal in Kalayaan Island Group – DND

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Ukraine, MH370, and now this. I guess trouble really do come in 3s.