China's SCS Strategy Thread

ansy1968

Brigadier
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I've wondered for a while, what exactly is the PH's endgame here?

Restarting EDCA and buying mid-range missiles, sure, to some degree they strengthen your defense. But these things won't help the PH proactively advance their interest in the SCS.

Best case imo, is that they are used as negotiating leverage in the future when the PH is willing to come around. But personally, I don't see this happening before the 2028 election.
Under the auspices and control of the American, do you think they will let the Filipinos handle those weapons? Its part of EDCA deal, the prepositioning of US weapons, it negated the restriction of hosting a military base in the Philippine. So the US need an excuse to deployed those missiles and this is their solution.
 

GulfLander

Junior Member
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"Vietnam, China cross-border railway project to start construction in 2025

The project will serve as a vital railway link between Vietnam and China, advancing the Belt and Road Initiative.

The Lao Cai – Hanoi – Haiphong cross-border railway project linking with Kunming (China), is scheduled to start in 2025. [...]"

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GulfLander

Junior Member
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"A LAW THAT COURTS TROUBLE

The Maritime Zone Act of the Philippines is a disaster waiting to happen. How? Well, basically, the law turns into domestic law the EEZ claims of the Philippines, disregarding that intersects with maritime claims of other parties in the South China Sea conflict, namely Viet Nam, Malaysia, China (Beijing + Taipei). It just put into domestic law provisions of UNCLOS and the 2016 South China Sea Arbitration decision, by including the latter, it actually defeats the law in so many ways (more on this)!

What is interesting about this law is Section 15. It says that any violation of the Maritime Zone Act will be subject to an ADMINISTRATIVE FINE of 600K USD - 1M USD.

All the claimants in the South China Sea are already violating the provisions of this act. Yup. For example, all of the claimants have artificial structures WITHIN the maritime zone indicated here. And the Philippines is claiming jurisdiction in establishing them. So will the Philippines impose an administrative fine on each of them? The question is: Who will be the agency that will impose the administrative fine? How will the Philipines enforce the fine????! Trade sanctions? Seizure of state properties in the Philippines? How will you impose a fine without any retaliatory actions from the target state??? That is just impossible. And worse, it is impossible to do without the Philippines suffering in the end. Now you see why this is courting trouble?

What this law does is to tie the hands of the EXECUTIVE to pursue hawkish policy. In fact, it now makes maritime diplomacy harder to do because of this law. What if the EXECUTIVE doesn't impose a fine for a supposed violation of the act? " by a PH Intl relations scholar..

Does it tie PH gov to be anti CN hawk?

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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
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"Vietnam, China cross-border railway project to start construction in 2025
The project will serve as a vital railway link between Vietnam and China, advancing the Belt and Road Initiative.
The Lao Cai – Hanoi – Haiphong cross-border railway project linking with Kunming (China), is scheduled to start in 2025. [...]"
Sounds good. A 160 kph railroad for mixed transportation of cargo and people seems like a decent medium. And way better than existing rail in Vietnam.
 

GulfLander

Junior Member
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IMO this deal is more ceremonial than actual substance, I don't think PH intel agencies have much info to share with their American counterparts, while the US has already been providing intel to the PH even before this "deal" was conceived.

Maybe sharing info using anti sub heli? Or they plan on installing more devices or facilities?
 
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