China's SCS Strategy Thread

[zbb]

"During final meetings in the last four days, two Chinese demands that had been key sticking points were removed from the draft deal.

China had previously said it would allow food, water and other basic supplies to be transported by the Philippines to its forces in the shoal if Manila agreed not to bring construction materials to fortify the crumbling ship, and to give China advance notice and the right to inspect the ships for those materials, the officials said. The Philippines rejected those conditions, and the final deal did not include them, according to the Philippine official."


This looks bad, China gave up in a major way if they did a deal that allows PH to bring in construction materials. Why did they back off from their core requirement like this?

The specifics of the agreement has not been released. The language in the AP article is ambiguous and likely deliberately misleading. The Philippines not agreeing to stop bringing construction material certainly does not mean China agreed to allow them to supply construction material or even food and water for that matter. In fact, if China had agreed to allow such supply missions, the AP article would have stated that directly.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

The specifics of the agreement has not been released. The language in the AP article is ambiguous and likely deliberately misleading. The Philippines not agreeing to stop bringing construction material certainly does not mean China agreed to allow them to supply construction material or even food and water for that matter. In fact, if China had agreed to allow such supply missions, the AP article would have stated that directly.

China removing that language from a deal would certainly seem like China is okay with PH sending such materials since that was the whole point of the confrontations. Its as if China would overlook it if PH did this in secret. They also removed any requirement for pre-notification, again a major Chinese demand made public many times in the past. It looks a like diplomatic victory for PH any way you look at it.

 

[Index]

China removing that language from a deal would certainly seem like China is okay with PH sending such materials since that was the whole point of the confrontations. Its as if China would overlook it if PH did this in secret. They also removed any requirement for pre-notification, again a major Chinese demand made public many times in the past. It looks a like diplomatic victory for PH any way you look at it.

Non reliable source to begin with.

Foreign ministry would announce if there is a "deal" but to my knowledge, they're not working on any such deal besides the SCS conduct code

 

[Wrought]

China removing that language from a deal would certainly seem like China is okay with PH sending such materials since that was the whole point of the confrontations. Its as if China would overlook it if PH did this in secret. They also removed any requirement for pre-notification, again a major Chinese demand made public many times in the past. It looks a like diplomatic victory for PH any way you look at it.

I wouldn't jump to conclusions. Having informal verbal agreements is not the same as formal written ones, and we already know that's how it was handled before. If the Philippines wanted to back down without looking like they backed down, they would keep it out of writing. I personally find it implausible that CCG would stand down after having established a strong position and demonstrating its ability to control resupply ops.

But who knows, there could be more factors at play here. The shoal might have been traded for something else. In any case, we will have to see what actually happens going forward. There is always the possibility the deal will collapse, as previous deals have.

 

[Wrought]

MFA has released a statement now. It seems that the sticking point will be what qualifies as 大量建材.

问：请问发言人，中菲是否就管控仁爱礁局势达成谅解？

答：首先我要强调，仁爱礁是中国南沙群岛的一部分，中国对包括仁爱礁在内的南沙群岛及其附近海域拥有主权。对于如何处理当前的仁爱礁局势，中方已公开宣布三点原则立场：

第一，菲律宾派“军舰”在仁爱礁长期“坐滩”侵犯中国主权，违反《南海各方行为宣言》，特别是第五条关于不在无人岛礁采取居住行为的规定。中方仍要求菲方拖走该舰，恢复仁爱礁无人无设施的原状。

第二，在菲拖走“坐滩”军舰之前，如菲需要对该舰居住人员提供生活物资补给，中方愿从人道主义出发，在事先向中方通报，并经现场核查后，允许菲方实施运补，中方将全过程予以监控。

第三，如果菲方运送大量建材上舰，试图建设固定设施和永久哨所，中方绝不接受，将坚决依法依规予以拦阻，以维护中国主权和《南海各方行为宣言》的严肃性。

基于以上三点原则立场，中方近来持续同菲方就管控仁爱礁局势进行磋商，并于日前就运补人道主义生活物资达成临时性安排。双方同意共同管控海上分歧，推动南海局势降温。

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[zbb]

China removing that language from a deal would certainly seem like China is okay with PH sending such materials since that was the whole point of the confrontations. Its as if China would overlook it if PH did this in secret. They also removed any requirement for pre-notification, again a major Chinese demand made public many times in the past. It looks a like diplomatic victory for PH any way you look at it.

What we have is anonymous Filipino officials saying essentially "we did not surrender to China". The fact that they have to say that suggests they are backing down. It certainly does not indicate by any stretch that China surrendered.

 

[Luke Warmwar]

Also in the news:

Philippines risks Beijing’s ire as it weighs using allies for South China Sea resupply runs

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[Overbom]

Also in the news:

Philippines risks Beijing’s ire as it weighs using allies for South China Sea resupply runs

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So that deal thing was just fake news I guess

 

[RedMetalSeadramon]

Also in the news:

Philippines risks Beijing’s ire as it weighs using allies for South China Sea resupply runs

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This is nonsense. China bring 2 ship Philippines brings 2 ships, Philippines bring 3 Jap ships China brings 5 ship. Then Jap ships leave and now Philippines has to deal with 5 ships. China has escalation dominance here.

 

[Wrought]

So that deal thing was just fake news I guess

Not fake news, just empty words. We've already seen public disputes over

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.

On Monday, Philippine foreign ministry spokesperson Teresita Daza said in a statement that Manila would “continue to assert our rights and jurisdiction in our maritime zones”, which included Second Thomas Shoal.

The foreign ministry also rejected suggestions by China that the “provisional arrangement” announced on Sunday required Manila to give Beijing “prior notification” and verification of deliveries to the BRP Sierra Madre, reports Agence France-Presse.

A cynic would say that both sides agreed to sit down and talk because both wanted to point fingers and say the other side broke the deal. Notably, neither side has released the text of the agreement. In any case, words are just words. The reality of the situation remains unchanged.