China's SCS Strategy Thread

[siegecrossbow]

US Navy P-8 just dropped a free sample product for China. I am sure Chinese scientist will do a teardown on it like what the US did to Huawei Mate 60 Pro.

Found out that MIC was skimping on costs by using Huaqiangbei components.

 

[Brainsuker]

That derelict is already stranded on the shoal.

However, and frankly speaking, the move which you have suggested is way more empty symbolic than anything of actual substance. China still have plenty of other ways to make the Filipinos suffer for what they did in May 1999 without going after that route.

Besides, if anything, responding to that highlighted phrase - If Beijing responds to headaches throughout the history of the PRC like how you would envision China should do to that derelict, then the entirety of East Asia and Southeast Asia won't be as peaceful and developing/developed as it is today.



China will send their PLAN warships to intercept the USN ship. And the ball will be in the US' court anyways - They are right inside China's own front yard.

Are they willing to ignite a ocean-wide and continent-wide all-out war and have thousands, if not tens of thousands, of their own men dead and crippled just because some ASEAN version of Jai Hinds are trying to stir up trouble, just so that their leader can get his family's corrupt money unfrozen - Against a peer military superpower situated right in front of her own home at that?



How you try to equate acts resulting from maritime and territorial disputes between countries to that of an obvious foreign-sponsored terrorist attack event on the home soil, right inside the capital city of a country truly boggles me.



I don't see anything clownish with what China's doing.

In fact, China has been very patient and disciplined to not do anything overly drastic against that derelict for a full 25 years, especially considering how the Filipinos literally sprinkled salt onto China's wound the very next day after the US bombed the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade in May 1999.

If anything - China can keep on milking this situation at direct cost to the Filipinos (and indirectly to the US&LC). Besides, it's Beijing who has the big boats and big guns now, not Manila.

I'm sorry, but those empty symbolic is actually the core of today political move / ideological doctrine. You win something for an empty symbolic movement just to fulfill your political agenda. Those Pinoy use that derelict ship to become their empty symbolic pride to declare that those rift belong to them. So why not just crush those Pinoy empty dream / empty symbolic pride, to tell them that their hope is crushed.

The cost of a ship is really very cheap if you compare with the result of making the symbol of Pinoy being crushed. Remember, Pinoy see that derelict ship as a real symbol for their territory claim in the rift (SCS). They even manned that derelict ship just for their political claim. Crushing that symbol will really crush Pinoy pride as a nation. To me, losing a ship for it is just really a very cheap bargain to what I get from getting that derelict ship to sink. Specially when China can replace that ship easily with their economy and ship building power.

You don't even need to use a new ship for that.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

I'm sorry, but those empty symbolic is actually the core of today political move / ideological doctrine. You win something for an empty symbolic movement just to fulfill your political agenda. Those Pinoy use that derelict ship to become their empty symbolic pride to declare that those rift belong to them. So why not just crush those Pinoy empty dream / empty symbolic pride, to tell them that their hope is crushed.

The cost of a ship is really very cheap if you compare with the result of making the symbol of Pinoy being crushed. Remember, Pinoy see that derelict ship as a real symbol for their territory claim in the rift (SCS). They even manned that derelict ship just for their political claim. Crushing that symbol will really crush Pinoy pride as a nation. To me, losing a ship for it is just really a very cheap bargain to what I get from getting that derelict ship to sink. Specially when China can replace that ship easily with their economy and ship building power.

You don't even need to use a new ship for that.

Your apparent focus on symbolism and ideology is exactly what resulted in the state the West find themselves in today.

Beijing is neither Washington DC nor Manila, let me be clear with that. Theatrics and plays are fine sometimes and in some situations - But it MUST NOT be the guiding principle of how to navigate through the massive and unforgiving minefields of geopolitics.

Trying to do what you've suggested will certainly result in a needless bloodbath on both the Chinese and Filipino sides (as both sides would certainly be armed, not just from the collision and the ensuing damage), and that will only further inflame Beijing-Manila tensions. China would then be badmouthed even further on the world stage for being needlessly over-aggressive and violent, which also provides even more casus belli for the US to further advance their hostile posture against China in the region.

As I've said earlier, this will end up to be diplomatic disaster for Beijing. Maybe it's good for your "oh-this-feels-so-good-to-smack-the-Pinoys-on-their-heads-for-once", but it's definitely worse for the overall development of things for China.

Also, regarding the bolded phrase of yours - No, that really won't work. If things are that easy, then many wars around the world today wouldn't have happened.

 

[valysre]

Crushing that symbol will really crush Pinoy pride as a nation.

士可杀不可辱。You will inspire an even more fervent desire from the Filipinos to martyr themselves against the evil CCP who offers such terrible insult. The Filipinos may be awfully stupid, but they are still men, and all men have their pride.
I don't want to see what will happen if the Filipino fishermen get it into their heads that they must avenge an insult to their nation. They are silly enough when they think they are standing up to an oppressor. CCG may be forced to lethal measures, and that is a messy path better left untouched.

 

[ansy1968]

士可杀不可辱。You will inspire an even more fervent desire from the Filipinos to martyr themselves against the evil CCP who offers such terrible insult. The Filipinos may be awfully stupid, but they are still men, and all men have their pride.
I don't want to see what will happen if the Filipino fishermen get it into their heads that they must avenge an insult to their nation. They are silly enough when they think they are standing up to an oppressor. CCG may be forced to lethal measures, and that is a messy path better left untouched.

When you're poor, pride and dignity doesn't exist, while Hopium is a new drug concocted by the Collective West and being sold by the local elite can be easily deflated resulting to despair and agony. If you're a good strategist which the CPC are, WAR is the last or the least option as they have a lot of tools to work with. We look with envy and jealousy as other ASEAN members had been invited and join BRICS and BRI, again we were always the last kid in the queue and being ignored and pick last. That alone is what scare the current administration as the expect benefits from the pivot to the collective west had not been materialized.

 

[SimaQian]

士可杀不可辱。You will inspire an even more fervent desire from the Filipinos to martyr themselves against the evil CCP who offers such terrible insult. The Filipinos may be awfully stupid, but they are still men, and all men have their pride.
I don't want to see what will happen if the Filipino fishermen get it into their heads that they must avenge an insult to their nation. They are silly enough when they think they are standing up to an oppressor. CCG may be forced to lethal measures, and that is a messy path better left untouched.

This has nothing to do with Philippine people pride or them being stupid. It just simple. Just few green dollar bucks will do the trick for all those chain in authorities involved. Politicians and arm forces have even different stances. It does not matter what is correct or wrong, what is brave or what is stupid to do. A few dollars from sponsors and they can dragged that situation to eternity. Who can resists the mighty US dollar now in PH when peso is almost at altime low? Just wait few weeks they will do those provocations again now that they know they wont get killed.

 

[ansy1968]

This has nothing to do with Philippine people pride or them being stupid. It just simple. Just few green dollar bucks will do the trick for all those chain in authorities involved. Politicians and arm forces have even different stances. It does not matter what is correct or wrong, what is brave or what is stupid to do. A few dollars from sponsors and they can dragged that situation to eternity. Who can resists the mighty US dollar now in PH when peso is almost at altime low? Just wait few weeks they will do those provocations again now that they know they wont get killed.

Well bro if the Chinese can coopted the oligarchy elites you can see an instant sea of change, it can happen not at the gov't level BUT more on commercial and business level, that's why I prefer more interaction. Those new bases under EDCA are useless in my opinion, they contribute nothing in strategic and tactical level, we lived in the 21st century and the Chinese are employing a new RMA (Revolution in Military Affairs) rendering those bases useless. What the American are doing is to rope in those vassals that are still under their control, a bully is less effective without his/her henchman, they're operating under a mob mentality which is unstable. Any sign of weakness will spell the end of PAX AMERICANA, they don't have any REVERSED gear, they need to double down to show who's the boss. That's why the US empire is traversing a slippery slope and may soon follow the sample of the late ROMAN EMPIRE which collapse under its owned weight.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

Why ram the PH ship when you can surround the soldiers there with overwhelming force, arrest them, and tow the ship away or even destroy with explosives once its clear of all PH soldiers.

I don't see any reason for China to be sneaky about it and use something like a fake accident. If the goal is to end PH presence in the shoal just do it with legal confidence. I doubt PH can do anything to respond. Can they start shooting? Sure, but then the PLA can shoot back. But, even that is not needed. PLA can use non-lethal gas to make all the soldiers go asleep and then detain them.

Moreover, if PLA wants to do island building there, why not start while that ship is still there. Think about Chinese nail houses. Nothing prevents China from developing a full scale base, While that ship is still stranded.

Finally, why go with all that trouble really. Just blockade it like China is doing now. Once those troops are starving and tired of staying there for months, they will just surrender to the PLA on their own.

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

In the interest of integrity and fact finding regarding the dispute between China and the Philippines one thing that's been repeated over and over again is the constant use and repetition of the "UNCLOS ruling" which supposed to have affirmed and confirmed the legality and sovereignty of the islands currently in dispute between China and the Philippines. But in actual reading of the said ruling document from what I remembered, the International court implicitly said that its ruling of the matter was not on SOVEREIGNITY. A quick search on google on this report seems to have been scrubbed so I decided to go and search for the ruling documents on the main source itself and this is what I found:

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PAGES 58-59

Existence of a Dispute concerning Interpretation and Application of the Convention 153.

The Tribunal next considered whether there is a dispute between the Parties concerning the interpretation or application of the Convention, which is the basis for the dispute settlement mechanisms of the Convention.83 In so doing, the Tribunal considered two objections set out in China’s Position Paper: first, that the Parties’ dispute is actually about sovereignty over the islands of the South China Sea and therefore not a matter concerning the Convention, and second, that the Parties’ dispute is actually about the delimitation of the maritime boundary between them and therefore excluded from dispute settlement by an exception set out in the Convention that States may activate by declaration. China activated the exception for disputes concerning sea boundary delimitations when it made a declaration in 2006. 154. With respect to the former objection, the Tribunal noted that there is a dispute between the Parties regarding sovereignty over islands, but held that the matters submitted to arbitration by the Philippines do not concern sovereignty.84 The Tribunal considered it to be expected that the Philippines and China would have disputes regarding multiple subjects, but emphasised that the Tribunal did not accept that “it follows from the existence of a dispute over sovereignty that sovereignty is also the appropriate characterisation of the claims the Philippines has submitted in these proceedings.”85 The Tribunal also emphasised that “[t]he Philippines has not asked the Tribunal to rule on sovereignty and, indeed, has expressly and repeatedly requested that the Tribunal refrain from so doing.”86 The Tribunal emphasised that it did “not see that any of the Philippines’ Submissions require an implicit determination of sovereignty.”87

Finally, the Tribunal observed that it was “fully conscious of the limits on the claims submitted to it and, to the extent that it reaches the merits of any of the Philippines’ Submissions, intends to ensure that its decision neither advances nor detracts from either Party’s claims to land sovereignty in the South China Sea.”88

I have not read the full document but I have yet to find anything on the said ruling that EXPLICITY AND IMPLICITY stated that its ruling pertains to THE SOVEREIGNTY or granting the Philippines the SOLE custody of the said islands. But when you read, listen, watch the news from around the world they all say that the 2016 tribunal ruling granted/awarded the Philippines full sovereignty over the islands. The media, supposed experts just trumpets lies after lies and expect China to be bludgeoned into submission. What a farce.

A more academic but easy to understand contextualization of the 2016 arbitration ruling from a Filipino academic.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1805856273025614116

 

[duskseeker]

I found this too