China's SCS Strategy Thread

[valysre]

You believe that an allied nation should be suddenly attacked over what they did several decades ago?

No, but as the Americans are very fond of saying: "Never forgive, never forget". Though I suppose Russia has not since reoffended and can therefore be forgiven. Not so much with Japan, or the other Western "powers", such as Britain.

As a matter of fact, when shown this, these shameless people will probably scream the loudest that they support China.

Time must be given. Hence an avoidance of conflict today, to purchase a stronger support tomorrow.

We brutalize whom they send. That is how the conflict is fought; we do no back down because they send half-trained fishermen. But wait... these are supposedly special forces, right? LOL

I've always advocated a softer handling of people who commit crimes due to a severe mental impairment. For example, public defecation by the mentally infirm should not be responded to with beatings. The same applies to the Filipinos. They can be discouraged without what some on this forum are advocating for. What CCG does now is fine. Psychological torture, mining the Sierra Madre, violent escalation using PLAN surface units, not so much.

How do the Chinese people feel if we back down and they gloat only to make a deal months down the line for economic reasons?

If history is still taught to any decent degree, the Chinese people should not feel too bad. 漢武帝 spent years raising horses before annihilating the Xiongnu and removing their threat to China proper. Imagine how the peasantry must have felt then. All their land taken to feed horses, as the Xiongnu continued to raid.

Right now this deranged drunk hobo shit is trying to beat you.

I would describe it more as the homeless man is defecating on your front step. Next time he begs for alms, simply refuse. There's not too much need to kick the crap out of him.

The West will make reasons out of thin air to begrudge you anyway. Best give them a real reason while you make gains on your interests than to do nothing and have them imagine reasons anyway. Always do what is best for China. Do not fear what others think of us; make others fear for what we think of them.

The danger lies in non-Western countries sympathizing with [the poor Filipinos who are only trying to protect their territorial claim] (square brackets for sarcasm). China should absolutely be concerned what the African nations, as well as certain Central and Southern American countries think of China. Any action taken in SCS against the Philippines must not endanger Chinese standing with these nations. China relies on these nations to form a unified axis of nations who are displeased with the American-led Western-oriented global hegemony. Of course, the tolerance for armed violence is pretty high: African nations by and large still have positive relations with Russia despite their entanglement with Ukraine.

The bottom line is this: China can already fully counter anything the Filipinos can conjure up with their wishful thinking. Some users on this forum are advocating for unnecessary escalations beyond this. I think such suggestions are really due to successful Filipino psy-ops. Constant Filipino copium and loud spouting of idiot assertions and belligerent claims makes some people itch to prove them wrong. There is no need. The Sierra Madre will rust away into the sea, and along with it any Filipino pipedream of owning the SCS islands.

 

[manqiangrexue]

No, but as the Americans are very fond of saying: "Never forgive, never forget". Though I suppose Russia has not since reoffended and can therefore be forgiven. Not so much with Japan, or the other Western "powers", such as Britain.

So if China defeated the US and Japan bent the knee to enter China's orbit... your reaction would be what? To attack them?

Time must be given. Hence an avoidance of conflict today, to purchase a stronger support tomorrow.

We do not necessarily have that time. We might but might not, depending on how things unfold. Also, time given is for the reason of making China stronger to win the conflict, not to pacify the hanjian at the expense of the patriots who want to see China deal out just desserts.

I've always advocated a softer handling of people who commit crimes due to a severe mental impairment. For example, public defecation by the mentally infirm should not be responded to with beatings. The same applies to the Filipinos. They can be discouraged without what some on this forum are advocating for. What CCG does now is fine. Psychological torture, mining the Sierra Madre, violent escalation using PLAN surface units, not so much.

If they can, then they can. China does not want to do more. But if they can't then more is needed. You draw the line where it is currently set because it is known territory but remember that all escalations were once unknown. I have a feeling that if China decided to do more and it proved effective, you'd be fine with that too.

If history is still taught to any decent degree, the Chinese people should not feel too bad. 漢武帝 spent years raising horses before annihilating the Xiongnu and removing their threat to China proper. Imagine how the peasantry must have felt then. All their land taken to feed horses, as the Xiongnu continued to raid.

That's because he needed to build his military power, not because he wanted to appease hanjian at the expense of patriots. I am all for the former, none for the latter.

I would describe it more as the homeless man is defecating on your front step. Next time he begs for alms, simply refuse. There's not too much need to kick the crap out of him.

If a man defecates on your front step every day, you tolerate this hoping that he is a homeless person who will change once you refuse him hospitality? Literally that's what you would do? If I took a dump on your front door right now, you would do nothing and take it every day, in hopes that one day I would need you for something and you would refuse to change my ways?

The danger lies in non-Western countries sympathizing with [the poor Filipinos who are only trying to protect their territorial claim] (square brackets for sarcasm). China should absolutely be concerned what the African nations, as well as certain Central and Southern American countries think of China. Any action taken in SCS against the Philippines must not endanger Chinese standing with these nations. China relies on these nations to form a unified axis of nations who are displeased with the American-led Western-oriented global hegemony. Of course, the tolerance for armed violence is pretty high: African nations by and large still have positive relations with Russia despite their entanglement with Ukraine.

Like I said, the strong do as they need and do not care what others think. The weak will always find a reason to be on the side of strength. No nations will be swayed seeing how the Philippines started this mess with the US as their puppet master. If they can be swayed, then they were too mindless to be of any use as an ally anyway.

The bottom line is this: China can already fully counter anything the Filipinos can conjure up with their wishful thinking. Some users on this forum are advocating for unnecessary escalations beyond this. I think such suggestions are really due to successful Filipino psy-ops. Constant Filipino copium and loud spouting of idiot assertions and belligerent claims makes some people itch to prove them wrong. There is no need. The Sierra Madre will rust away into the sea, and along with it any Filipino pipedream of owning the SCS islands.

The bottom line is China escalates and always proves it to be the right measure. That you affirm it is just hindsight 20/20. Could a more aggressive measure have been better? Maybe so, maybe not.

 

[d3dx9]

I don't want to be a wet blanket, and I'm not sure if some people here are being sarcastic, but I don't think we should be advocating for any kind of psychological warfare against the Sierra Madre garrison, or massive heavy-handed shows of force in general.

There are several reasons: (a) It doesn't really look good internationally, (b) It isn't really necessary, (c) It would in all likelihood inspire a sizable domestic pacifist movement that would inevitably spiral towards anti-CCP sentiments (and we know how these end), and (d) I personally would feel really bad if China resorted to similar tactics employed by the Western powers for the past 300 years.

I somewhat disagree with the premise that implementing such measures would trigger a broad pacifist movement within China, at least according to my understanding. The prevailing sentiment among many in China, both online and offline, seems to be that the country has been too lenient, and that the government should take a firmer stance against the Philippines. After the incident, this feeling was met with widespread approval, with many hoping for China to maintain a tough position, echoing what appears to be the mainstream public opinion from my observations. Similar attitudes were also observed during the border disputes between China and India in Tibet. In my experience, based on real-life interactions and online observations, grassroots viewpoints in China tend to be more hawkish and hardlined than those of the Chinese government.

Indeed, there is a faction within China that criticizes the government for being excessively aggressive. However, as far as I know, these opinions seem to be confined to the internet, and I have not encountered such stances in real life, so I cannot attest to their authenticity. Moreover, this group is rather marginalized and does not represent the mainstream voice within China's public discourse. Lastly, because this segment criticizes everything the state does, it appears to me that the Chinese government neither intends to nor can win the support of this group.

In summary, the civilian sentiment in China is significantly more radical and hardline than that of both the Chinese government and the Communist Party of China. Their dissatisfaction stems from the government's actions not being tough enough, rather than the opposite.
Please note, the views expressed above are my personal opinions. I hope they can encourage a rational and respectful discussion.

 

[d3dx9]

I somewhat disagree with the premise that implementing such measures would trigger a broad pacifist movement within China, at least according to my understanding. The prevailing sentiment among many in China, both online and offline, seems to be that the country has been too lenient, and that the government should take a firmer stance against the Philippines. After the incident, this feeling was met with widespread approval, with many hoping for China to maintain a tough position, echoing what appears to be the mainstream public opinion from my observations. Similar attitudes were also observed during the border disputes between China and India in Tibet. In my experience, based on real-life interactions and online observations, grassroots viewpoints in China tend to be more hawkish and hardlined than those of the Chinese government.

Indeed, there is a faction within China that criticizes the government for being excessively aggressive. However, as far as I know, these opinions seem to be confined to the internet, and I have not encountered such stances in real life, so I cannot attest to their authenticity. Moreover, this group is rather marginalized and does not represent the mainstream voice within China's public discourse. Lastly, because this segment criticizes everything the state does, it appears to me that the Chinese government neither intends to nor can win the support of this group.

In summary, the civilian sentiment in China is significantly more radical and hardline than that of both the Chinese government and the Communist Party of China. Their dissatisfaction stems from the government's actions not being tough enough, rather than the opposite.
Please note, the views expressed above are my personal opinions. I hope they can encourage a rational and respectful discussion.

The views expressed above are drawn from engaging with and observing discussions on Chinese domestic websites rather than sources like Twitter or YouTube.

 

[tygyg1111]

I've always advocated a softer handling of people who commit crimes due to a severe mental impairment. For example, public defecation by the mentally infirm should not be responded to with beatings. The same applies to the Filipinos. They can be discouraged without what some on this forum are advocating for.

At the end of the day you've got to do what works. Outside of China, the national character of most nations respect beatings and worship being dominated. They don't view benevolence and magnanimity as Chinese do. The Indians, Filipinos, Japanese, Europeans and Americans all respect and worship those who can kick their ass.

The soft discouragement you're insinuating just leads to emboldened salami slicing which is then resolved with a demonstration of hard power, e.g. Pelosi visit.

 

[Temstar]

I've always advocated a softer handling of people who commit crimes due to a severe mental impairment. For example, public defecation by the mentally infirm should not be responded to with beatings. The same applies to the Filipinos. They can be discouraged without what some on this forum are advocating for. What CCG does now is fine. Psychological torture, mining the Sierra Madre, violent escalation using PLAN surface units, not so much.

Disabling a boat with fire axe, arresting all involved and confiscating illegal weapons discovered is soft approach already, nobody died right. If it was any other superpower in history the situation on June 17th would have been resolved with a burst of 76mm rounds into that boat.

 

[CMP]

At the end of the day you've got to do what works. Outside of China, the national character of most nations respect beatings and worship being dominated. They don't view benevolence and magnanimity as Chinese do. The Indians, Filipinos, Japanese, Europeans and Americans all respect and worship those who can kick their ass.

The soft discouragement you're insinuating just leads to emboldened salami slicing which is then resolved with a demonstration of hard power, e.g. Pelosi visit.

Chinese liberals are detached from reality. They should all be sent to Ukraine.

 

[valysre]

To attack them?

I personally have a vendetta against the Japanese. 国仇家恨. I'm incredibly biased on this matter.

not to pacify the hanjian

You would not be pacifying them; you would be teaching them the errors of their ways by demonstrating a clear economic and moral superiority to the West.

I have a feeling that if China decided to do more and it proved effective, you'd be fine with that too.

Probably true. I've been criticized for being too skeptical of, as you say: "unknown escalations".

That's because he needed to build his military power, not because he wanted to appease hanjian at the expense of patriots. I am all for the former, none for the latter.

Fair enough. But there's not much "at the expense of patriots" going on in the SCS. It's mostly people raring at the bit to prove the idiot Filipinos all over the Internet wrong.

If a man defecates on your front step every day, you tolerate this hoping that he is a homeless person who will change once you refuse him hospitality? Literally that's what you would do? If I took a dump on your front door right now, you would do nothing and take it every day, in hopes that one day I would need you for something and you would refuse to change my ways?

I think the metaphor can be clarified in the sense that the homeless man defecating on my front step relies on me for food. So, if I stop feeding him, he'll stop defecating on my step. Either by way of a lack of intestinal byproduct due to starvation, or because of a conscious decision. But I understand that for many this course of action may be too slow and may also backfire due to the amount of time required to execute.

Like I said, the strong do as they need and do not care what others think. The weak will always find a reason to be on the side of strength. No nations will be swayed seeing how the Philippines started this mess with the US as their puppet master. If they can be swayed, then they were too mindless to be of any use as an ally anyway.

China is not strong enough to disregard the thoughts of all other nations yet. Most nations may not be swayed, but I would be cautious of disregarding those who can be swayed. The court of public opinion is often decided by such mindless who sway so easily in tempestuous winds.

The bottom line is China escalates and always proves it to be the right measure. That you affirm it is just hindsight 20/20. Could a more aggressive measure have been better? Maybe so, maybe not.

I would argue that what happened recently in SCS isn't really much of an escalation. But you are right that I am looking at things that worked and saying that they are enough, while I look at things that have not yet been tried and say that they will not work. Perhaps the line can be pushed a little further. It may prove to be the right choice, it may not.
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Please note, the views expressed above are my personal opinions. I hope they can encourage a rational and respectful discussion.

I agree with the views you express. I don't want to cause a regionalist breakdown of civil conversation, but in my experience interacting with young Chinese in the Shanghai urban area, there is an alarmingly high rate of 反党. Perhaps this is sampling bias. These are also perhaps the originators of the online presence you mention.
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At the end of the day you've got to do what works. Outside of China, the national character of most nations respect beatings and worship being dominated. They don't view benevolence and magnanimity as Chinese do. The Indians, Filipinos, Japanese, Europeans and Americans all respect and worship those who can kick their ass.

I have not considered this yet. Now that I think of this, it is true. The Indians still worship the British (to a degree); the Filipinos: the Americans; the Japanese: the Americans. I did not think of this.
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Disabling a boat with fire axe, arresting all involved and confiscating illegal weapons discovered is soft approach already, nobody died right. If it was any other superpower in history the situation on June 17th would have been resolved with a burst of 76mm rounds into that boat.

I acknowledge that CCG has been supremely restrained. I believe that the CCG should remain similarly restrained and not escalate to immediately lethal measures in a show of force. Watercannons are one thing, but autocannons are another entirely. Again, what the CCG does now is fine.
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I am still confused what an escalation on the part of the CCG + PLAN would look like, and what benefits it would bring. Again, the CCG has done a great job of repelling the unwelcome Filipino visitors and has in fact encouraged them to book appointments ahead of time. I don't see why an escalation is necessary, unless the Filipinos escalate first. And of course, that is what the veritable armada the PLAN has floating about in the SCS is for.

 

[Temstar]

I am still confused what an escalation on the part of the CCG + PLAN would look like, and what benefits it would bring. Again, the CCG has done a great job of repelling the unwelcome Filipino visitors and has in fact encouraged them to book appointments ahead of time. I don't see why an escalation is necessary, unless the Filipinos escalate first. And of course, that is what the veritable armada the PLAN has floating about in the SCS is for.

I think a good counter example to non-peaceful resolution would be what's known as

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.

During the scuffle between troops landed on the shore a gun went off (and injured the arm of Chen Weiwen, commander of the landing party and only person on PLA side injured, later promoted to Rear Admiral), PLAN immediately opened up with all weapons and wiped out the Vietnamese landing and sunk two Vietnamese ships.

Chinese commentators last week all point out the only thing separating 17th of June from 314 is a single bullet. Had a bullet being fired on that day by Filipino the sea would have turned red.

 

[valysre]

I think a good counter example to non-peaceful resolution would be what's known as

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.

Is this an example in support of or against non-peaceful resolution?

Although I must say that this does not seem like any "resolution", but rather a somewhat disproportionate response to what sounds to me like an accident.