Without South China Sea, China couldn't emerge to be a real power. China would be boxed in the first and second islands chain. China needs access to the Indian Ocean and Pacific to become a true power. Don't underestimate the values of these small islands in the South China Sea. These islands would become China's fortress and power projection. Given times, these islands would become Guam and Diego Garcia.
China need a new geopolitical Doctrine ?
- Thread starter MrCrazyBoyRavi
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Regarding the South China Sea, I don't think China is doing any different than the other claimants. Discounting Taiwan's claim, which is claiming on behalf of China anyways, Vietnam also claim the entirety of the Paracels and Spratlys. China doesn't even hold the most islands, that achievement belongs to Vietnam. It's just that China's reclamations and fortifications achieved the critical mass of actual deterrence against American threats.
Not trying to please their media. But let's be pragmatic here, diaoyu, SCS mean a lot symbolically but really are not huge strategic importance. We have negotiated territory disputes with Russia and Pakistan and Nepal before. So it's not like it can't be done.
If we work towards getting rid of some of these disputes it gives less fodder for the US to malign.
The uhygur issue is literally the easiest one to solve. We close down that system and make an olive branch to the EU. Sure American fake news will try to spin it in some other disgusting way, but its better to get rid of that thorn.
Terrorism can be subdued in other more effective ways. Its hard to be a terrorist when even knives tracked by QR code....
Vietnam and Philippines and to some extent Malaysia and Indonesia have gobbled up South China Sea when China was weak and being friendly in 80s and 90s. Saudi and Turkey took advantages of China tolerant and openness in the 90s and 00s and funnel resources that built a ton of Mosques and ended up radicalized Uighurs. South Korea made a ton of money in trade with China and developed ambition towards Northeast China and got a unequal treaty over fishery rights in the East China Sea when it perceived China was weak and too willing to compromise. Taiwan ventured further toward independent after China offered so many incentives and lopsided trade deals. Japan took advantages of China appeasement strategy in the 90s and wanted to revise their history.
All these goodies and appeasement didn't work back then so you still wanted to double up and offer more appeasement so you can dream about an Asia unity that never existed.
Sure, we give up something and get something in return which is allies that China desperately needs right now to counter the US. SK taking over China lol? That's a joke right?
America has a lot of allies because it allows other countries to benefit from being allied with them. Ie. Canada and Mexico benefit from selling to US via NAFTA, EU benefits from US defense expenditure and protection. Japan and SK benefit from protection and access to US market.
You can't have your cake and eat it as well. just saying
Because they had no option since the US didn't even exist then??
I am not a pacifist. I'm saying we should fight the US but not by ourselves but with in our own coalition.
Trading off territories and national integrity for allies that probably would join your worst enemy and stab you in the back. That is a lousy strategy.
Not sure how old are you but South Korea in the 00s wanted NE China or at the very least part of Jilin. At the height of their nationalism and economy development, they feel China is weak and vulnerable and would break up sooner or later.
What do you think the belt & road is for. Why do think China wanted FTA with Japan and SK. Why China want the RCEP with ASEAN. China doesn't want all and is willing to share and help to build a bigger cake. But it doesn't mean China is needed to give up its territories integrity. No one respects a weakling that is willing to give up its territories just for an illusion of Asia unity.
Korean almost became a Japan vassal State til Tang and Ming defeated Japan. There always a choice. The reason they chose China back then it is because China is the most powerful nation in the East Asia and also the center of East Asia civilization. Japan didn't become a China vassal state til it got crushed badly in the Tang and Japan war. After that defeat, Japan worshiped Tang to an extent that even today you can see Tang customs and culture in Japan.
My final point is that, China is great at a lot of things: Infrastructure, technology, innovation, trade, etc.
But the one thing we are really really bad at is geopolitics. Russia is not nearly as economically powerful as China and probably is weaker in conventional military power than China in many ways, but they have more allies because they know how to play the game.
Maybe it's because Russia has more experience at it? Who knows. But we need a urgent revamp to our strategies going forward, because the US is trying their best to encircle and crush us on all fronts from semiconductors to Huawei to Hong Kong to trade wars etc.
But the one thing we are really really bad at is geopolitics. Russia is not nearly as economically powerful as China and probably is weaker in conventional military power than China in many ways, but they have more allies because they know how to play the game.
Maybe it's because Russia has more experience at it? Who knows. But we need a urgent revamp to our strategies going forward, because the US is trying their best to encircle and crush us on all fronts from semiconductors to Huawei to Hong Kong to trade wars etc.
Belt and road, FTA, etc is all great and all. But all that work is wasted when China becomes enraged over something like 2 stupid rocks in the middle of the ocean or the stupid THAAD dispute. SK can be nationalistic but no country is pefect. And no way in hell they actually thought they can take a piece of North East China from us. When they can't even get there without going thru North Korea. It's all talk. There is no point to getting worked up about it.
Those rocks became islands and then fortress and then became China power projection. Those islands would help China warships to refuel and monitor all activities of China's enemies. It would allow China to take control of South China Sea without firing a shot.
THAAD would undermine China national security. If China allowed its deployment, then all missiles station in China coastal region would be under the US direct monitor. It also means that South Korea picked US over China. China actually was being too nice to SK already. Just look at Cuban missiles crisis.
We didn't think Japan would ever invade China. Even in Ming Dynasty, we still think Japan is irrelevant and pose no threat when Japan caused so much trouble in China coastal cities. Then what happened.
America has so many allies because it is the most powerful nation on earth. It dominates in military, finance, culture and technology allowed it to exert undue influence in the world. However, it doesn't mean those allies are reliable. If China and the US went into war, most nato countries would not want to join the US not even Great Britain. Don't expect any ME nations, Latin American countries or African nations to side with the US. US might only can rely on Australia, Cananda, and Japan.
China doesn't need unreliable allies. China just needs to make sure that any countries that try to contain China would pay an unacceptable price. Make the costs so unbearable that no country would think that they could poke China without consequences. China doesn't need them to be China allies or choose China over the US but they can't join the US to contain China without paying a tremendous price.
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