China need a new geopolitical Doctrine ?

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Equation

Lieutenant General
Thats an advantage, but that won't be enough. New tech can emerge from anywhere in the world, we will be spending years trying to re-engineer everything, and by the time we catch-up, our products will be outdated and not competitive anymore. Meaning that third party countries like South Korea can benefit from having access to that tech without needing to re-engineer everything from scratch. Imagine if ASML comes out with an X-ray or Y-ray machine that is hypothetically even better than EUV. Samsung can buy that machine, build a better chip and sell their phones on the global market in 1 year. While Huawei has to go and reinvent an X-ray machine, build a better chip, and sell their phones in 10 years. We will always be behind.

I disagreed. It's always better to have more creative thinkers than a few. China's AI and super computers with domestic made chips are advancing fast. Remember China's quantum R&D are ahead of the rest of the world without "becoming like the Soviet Union".
 

Mohsin77

Senior Member
Registered Member
China's problem is that it started much later so there is a lot of catch up. Can such a massive force of scientists catch up to several smaller groups who have begun far far earlier? How long will it take?

See, "catching up" isn't the question anymore. The US has been running backwards for the past 3 decades, so if you just keep going straight you'll run past them soon. The question is, what happens then?

Let's say China exceeds the US GDP by 2030 and the Yuan becomes the reserve currency of the world, while the US slips further and further behind... then what happens? What's the Chinese vision for the world? Because if it's just more of the same, then it's still a Western world, isn't it?

If you keep following the exact same path as the West, you'll simply end up where they are today (if the ecosystem even survives that long.) Also remember that the reason why fundamental science in the West is stagnating isn't only because of a lack of STEM graduates. Einstein warned about this before he died.
 

free_6ix9ine

Junior Member
Registered Member
See, "catching up" isn't the question anymore. The US has been running backwards for the past 3 decades, so if you just keep going straight you'll run past them soon. The question is, what happens then?

Let's say China exceeds the US GDP by 2030 and the Yuan becomes the reserve currency of the world, while the US slips further and further behind... then what happens? What's the Chinese vision for the world? Because if it's just more of the same, then it's still a Western world, isn't it?

If you keep following the exact same path as the West, you'll simply end up where they are today (if the ecosystem even survives that long.) Also remember that the reason why fundamental science in the West is stagnating isn't only because of a lack of STEM graduates. Einstein warned about this before he died.

Exactly we have no vision, and the Yuan becoming a global currency without allies is a pipe dream. That's why I'm advocating for China to stand up vocally as an advocate for countries who have suffered under US imperialism and racism, this is the only logical endpoint we have because we don't have any other commonalities or doctrine. I'm glad policy makers in China are seeing the light. Ie recently the FM in China spoke out in support for BLM, its a good starting point. We should stand with Palestinians, etc.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
See, "catching up" isn't the question anymore. The US has been running backwards for the past 3 decades, so if you just keep going straight you'll run past them soon. The question is, what happens then?
I don't understand what you mean because American economy, military, and technology, have all improved in the last 30 years. They're not going backwards; they're just going forward slower than China.
Let's say China exceeds the US GDP by 2030 and the Yuan becomes the reserve currency of the world, while the US slips further and further behind... then what happens? What's the Chinese vision for the world? Because if it's just more of the same, then it's still a Western world, isn't it?
That is kind of presumptuous to say that the world will always need to be run by the visions of a single country. I don't think China has the desire to interfere with things so far from itself, as over-extension and exhaustion has often been the downfall of many powers. China should aim to do what's important for itself to preserve and build its own nation and invest far less on global interference than the US. The world isn't a kindergarten for China or the US to run.
If you keep following the exact same path as the West, you'll simply end up where they are today (if the ecosystem even survives that long.) Also remember that the reason why fundamental science in the West is stagnating isn't only because of a lack of STEM graduates. Einstein warned about this before he died.
I think the fundamental reason why the West lacks STEM students is because they've grown too comfortable with their lead and everyone wants a comfortable life with a comfortable major. I can't foresee if China will also fall into this trap but one good thing is that Chinese families are so competitive with each other that even without other peer countries, they will still drive their kids to undertake the toughest academic challenges just to rub it in their neighbor's faces LOL
 

free_6ix9ine

Junior Member
Registered Member
First of all, the entire reason that new tech can come from anywhere in the world is that the population of scientists is so large that by chance, it can happen anywhere where science is adequately funded, and when China funds its research properly, that means that there is a greater chance that it will come from China than anywhere else.

You said what if ASML comes out with a better machine. What if not? What if, instead, China leaps generations in lithography because it has more scientists, more funding, and becomes unstoppable once it builds the momentum? That's the whole point I was making about China's overwhelmingly large STEM population.

Also, I'm not saying to isolate, China vs. the world. Never. I'm saying that America's encirclement seems less likely under Trump (which was the beginning of our discussion) and also that Chinese strength is the key to gaining allies. Basically, it's pretty much your #3 option. Our disagreement was not on that; it was on you saying that China needs to soften and hide its powers to gain alliances in Asia and I said that weakness or disarmament never gains allies because countries always want to follow strength to assure that they are on the winning side.

Let's agree to disagree here. We both want the same endpoint here. Which is a strong China. But getting to that end point is where we disagree.

To clarify I didn't mean disarmament or advocate for weakness. What I meant was continuing upgrading our military, but use that strength to present our selves to US allies as an alternative to US protection. And the only way to do that is to get stronger but also resolve disputes like SCS, etc.
 
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manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Let's agree to disagree here. We both want the same endpoint here. Which is a strong China. But getting to that end point is where we disagree.

To clarify I didn't mean disarmament or advocate for weakness. What I meant was continuing upgrading our military, but use that strength to present our selves to US allies as an alternative to US protection. And the only way to do that is to get stronger but also resolve disputes like SCS, etc.
That's not disagreeing though. That's agreeing. You were talking about being less threatening so these countries so they wouldn't lean towards the US due to fear of China and how China should hide things about its military to appear gentler. I disagreed and said that China should be strong and displace American power so that friendship with China becomes a better alternative to friendship with the US. This is now what you're saying too. Judging by what you're writing now, you've changed what you said and we are now in agreement.
 

free_6ix9ine

Junior Member
Registered Member
That's not disagreeing though. That's agreeing. You were talking about being less threatening so these countries so they wouldn't lean towards the US due to fear of China and how China should hide things about its military to appear gentler. I disagreed and said that China should be strong and displace American power so that friendship with China becomes a better alternative to friendship with the US. This is now what you're saying too. Judging by what you're writing now, you've changed what you said and we are now in agreement.

Ok, maybe I changed my opinion on hiding military power. But I still stand on being less threatening by taking concrete steps to resolve our disputes with neighbors, SO we can appear to be less threatening and win them over from the US or at least attempt to do so.

What your advocating is buildinf up the military and threatening our neighbors by enflaming tensions in the SCS, diaoyu, Ladakh, etc. So they capitulate in the end. That's not gonna work. Because our neighbors know we are not strong enough to fight the Us one on one. So they will always pull the US into any dispute to gain the upper hand, which means the US can get more support to encircle us and stop our development to become a stronger country.

Chicken or the egg.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
What your advocating is buildinf up the military and threatening our neighbors by enflaming tensions in the SCS, diaoyu, Ladakh, etc. So they capitulate in the end. That's not gonna work. Because our neighbors know we are not strong enough to fight the Us one on one. So they will always pull the US into any dispute to gain the upper hand, which means the US can get more support to encircle us and stop our development to become a stronger country.
So the US has been pulled into these disputes and they have still never gained the upper hand on China, and as a result, countries like the Philippines have started to realize that their objectives are far better-served by having good relations with China rather than trying to use the US to trump China. That's the goal. When countries realize that in Asia, China's word is final, not America's and they come over to bargain, then China can be generous with them but from a position of strength. They will realize that it's far better to have China as a powerful and generous friend rather than an enemy (with the power to act with impunity in Asia), and that alliance with the US in Asia is useless. So trade something useless for something great. That's when countries make the switch. They don't do it just because you are being nice and non-threatening.

What you really don't wanna do is negotiate to end these disputes with the US at their backing because that makes China look like it's in a position of weakness and that it's an effective strategy to be a US ally and use America to achieve objectives in Asia. That will reinforce American alliances in the area and is the worst thing to do. The US doesn't have the strength to bring China to the negotiating table; the US can only make China bear down harder and make things more difficult for you. Only friendship with China can bring China to the negotiating table and grant you a favorable outcome by China's generosity, never by American force. That's the correct message to send.

Chicken or the egg.
I don't know why you think China can't become the most powerful country, at least in the region, without having Japan, Korea, etc... as allies. China has been and is still rising with alarming (to the US) speed without their help/support and the US never relied on Mexican/Canadian aid in its ascent. If China needs Korea/Japan's alliance to rise, then it's screwed; it's not doable. So it's not the chicken or the egg, it's that China needs to displace American power first, then it will gain the allies who don't want to be on the losing team. For their own safety, those countries will not switch alliances until you prove that you are a stronger and better option than America. And for their own safety, they will absolutely switch alliances to you after you have proven it, all the same, regardless of how threatening or benevolent you were (as long as you don't have existential conflict). It's a matter of survival for them to change themselves to always follow the strongest power. A much better analogy is, "don't put the cart in front of the horse."
 
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free_6ix9ine

Junior Member
Registered Member
So the US has been pulled into these disputes and they have still never gained the upper hand on China, and as a result, countries like the Philippines have started to realize that their objectives are far better-served by having good relations with China rather than trying to use the US to trump China. That's the goal. When countries realize that in Asia, China's word is final, not America's and they come over to bargain, then China can be generous with them but from a position of strength. They will realize that it's far better to have China as a powerful and generous friend rather than an enemy (with the power to act with impunity in Asia), and that alliance with the US in Asia is useless. So trade something useless for something great. That's when countries make the switch. They don't do it just because you are being nice and non-threatening.


I don't know why you think China can't become the most powerful country, at least in the region, without having Japan, Korea, etc... as allies. China has been and is still rising with alarming (to the US) speed without their help/support and the US never relied on Mexican/Canadian aid in its ascent. It's not the chicken or the egg, it's that China needs to displace American power first, then it will gain the allies who don't want to be on the losing team. For their own safety, those countries will not switch alliances until you prove that you are a stronger and better option than America. A much better analogy is, "don't put the cart in front of the horse."

My last point, China has grown quickly in the past 30 years because Deng xiaoping gave us rapprochement with the US, which gave us opportunity to access US technology and market. The US has always challenged us in many ways, but never threatened total technology cold War which is what the POTUS is trying to do.

Now that relationship is only to get worse with the US.

Maybe we can continue to grow without the US and without Japan or Korea. I hope we still can. But that route is surely harder than if Korea, Japan, EU was at the very least is not completely hostile to China. If Mexico and Canada was creating issues for the US, then instead of fighting China. The Us would be fighting them.

The leadership knows this, because they have studied the cold War and know that encirclement is a dangerous and needing to de-escalate with neighbors is important. And emphasized relationship building with the EU.Apart from a democratic revolution and Taiwan, there is nothing that we are so far apart from the EU that cannot be resolved with negotiations. Human rights, Uhygurs, climate change, perceived unfair trade practices, etc.

Don't fight wars on multiple fronts. Germany tried that in WW2.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
My last point, China has grown quickly in the past 30 years because Deng xiaoping gave us rapprochement with the US, which gave us opportunity to access US technology and market. The US has always challenged us in many ways, but never threatened total technology cold War which is what the POTUS is trying to do.
Right, but that threat is greatly ameliorated by the fact that many advanced technologies are not in the US (and wish to do everything to skirt sanctions to do business with China) and also, China already had a long time to develop a firm technological base on which to grow.
Now that relationship is only to get worse with the US.
That is inevitable; you cannot expect to surpass the US without them throwing everything including the kitchen sink at you. This just means that China's hot on their heels.
Maybe we can continue to grow without the US and without Japan or Korea. I hope we still can. But that route is surely harder than if Korea, Japan, EU was at the very least is not completely hostile to China.
And they are not. They are mostly trying to maintain relations with China due to China's enormous and growing market. China is doing nothing to make them more hostile to China but the US is doing much to make them less hostile to China (although inadvertently).
If Mexico and Canada was creating issues for the US, then instead of fighting China. The Us would be fighting them.
Not really. They're far too weak, and far too scared to incur America's retaliation. That should be what China aims for in Asia, NOT trying to win allies by being gentle and harmless.
The leadership knows this, because they have studied the cold War and know that encirclement is a dangerous and needing to de-escalate with neighbors is important. And emphasized relationship building with the EU.
It's less what China's doing to de-escalate (as you really can only do this by giving up your own interests/resources so it's not easy at all), but more of what the US is doing to accidentally push them towards China. American mistakes make things so much easier for China; as a matter of fact, China may not have the power to pull the EU closer under a competent POTUS, which is why I much prefer Trump over Biden.
Don't fight wars on multiple fronts. Germany tried that in WW2.
Ideally, but also don't be scared to flex your might where it can achieve victory. China's handling its relationships with its neighbors quite well as it defends its interests on all sides of its borders without erupting into violence while building the economy, technology, and military. (One great example is how China handled the 2017 Doklam standoff by moving massive war-fighting contingents to the India border causing India to unilaterally withdraw announcing that some understanding had been reached, which was news to the Chinese. No shots fired, resolved peacefully, but through Chinese strength.) America started a trade war with China and the EU at the same time and now it can't chew what it tried to bite off. So no slogan is absolute.
 
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