China need a new geopolitical Doctrine ?

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manqiangrexue

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
free_6ix9ine said:
I don't understand your argument. Japan and SK are not afraid that America will invade them or something, they are afraid that the US will abandon them to be taken over by a hostile China. That hostility is the exact barrier which prevents a mutual defense pact between China and Japan and SK.

Instead of being belingrent about SCS, diaoyu, THAAD, uhygurs, which is creating the exact type of hostility between China and neighbors that is preventing any sort of defense pact.

We should be very strong and continue to be even stronger. But not be belingrent towards smaller countries but instead focus on countering the US.
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No, you don't understand my argument because your mind is stuck on thinking that it's these countries vs. those countries but you're not seeing that countries can change sides all the time, and how America/China treats a small country can change as well. Those countries are American "allies" because the US would use its sanctions and coercion and pull a Venezuela/North Korea on them if they decided they didn't want to play America's game. They're not American allies because they have central interests intertwined with American interests. This is central to your misunderstanding. You think that countries have their set agendas and from those set agendas, they pick the most powerful allies they can when in fact they don't; they set their agendas to the agenda of the strongest country in order to be on the winning team. I said it before but I guess I have to repeat myself: America was not a Korean/Japanese ally before America beat the shit out of them, then they became American allies because they didn't want a second serving. That's how you get allies, NOT by making yourself appear harmless. China doesn't have to change a thing except to become the biggest strongest guy in the room and all the countries will gravitate over just because they wanna be with him, and not have to face him.
 
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Mohsin77

Mohsin77

Senior Member
Registered Member
Regarding the question of China's 'image' or power-projection problem, I'll give a friendly outsider's perspective... I think there is a confusion in the way China projects its image to the rest of the world, because there is confusion in how China perceives itself. If China stops being confused about itself, the rest of the world will stop being confused about China. Case in point:

KYli said:
America has so many allies because it is the most powerful nation on earth. It dominates in military, finance, culture and technology allowed it to exert undue influence in the world.
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That is a mistake. It is not "undue" at all. It's because America is the last standing house of a civilization which conquered the planet at one point, including both yours and my civilization. We are typing in English here, not Mandarin (even on a 'Sino' defense forum.) We measure our dates by the solar Christian calendar, even though we aren't Christian. You are half communist, half capitalist, which equals 100% European. I lived in China for a year and it was still hard to find the original 'China' within China.

I hope you understand that I'm not saying this to be disrespectful, but so that you fully understand the magnitude of the problem you are facing. Consider this as the perspective of a civilization that is friendly towards China, but the perennial nemesis of 'the West.' We have been at war with them since our birth, for fourteen hundred years, so we have some perspective on this issue. The 'image' problem that China faces is that it is seen as a derivative of the West, because it adopted westernism, in order to compete with the West. That's not necessarily a criticism... We get it. You did it because otherwise you would be exactly where we are today, at the bottom of the food chain. You decided to bite the bullet and go through a painful 'cultural revolution.'

China has reaped benefits of this (with the associated costs), but it still saddens us that China decided to go that route, just as I'm sure it enrages and confuses the rest of the world why we Muslims refuse to do the same. (We chose to sink in a 'dark age' instead, with all its associated costs. Ironically, that is exactly what the West decided to do in its own medieval era.) China on the other hand, decided to adopt Western principles, and is now on the verge of exceeding the West economically and militarily, but it seems like it can't lead the world culturally until it solves the confusion about its own identity... That's the perception.

But nevertheless, we wish China success in its competition with the US, and hope it finds a way to break out of the 'encirclement.' Unfortunately, we aren't yet strong enough to help much at this point, but at least China has indirectly benefited from the fact that for the past 20 years the US has been wasting time (and trillions of dollars) 'crusading' against us, just like its forefathers.
 
free_6ix9ine

free_6ix9ine

Junior Member
Registered Member
Mohsin77 said:
Regarding the question of China's 'image' or power-projection problem, I'll give a friendly outsider's perspective... I think there is a confusion in the way China projects its image to the rest of the world, because there is confusion in how China perceives itself. If China stops being confused about itself, the rest of the world will stop being confused about China. Case in point:



That is a mistake. It is not "undue" at all. It's because America is the last standing house of a civilization which conquered the planet at one point, including both yours and my civilization. We are typing in English here, not Mandarin (even on a 'Sino' defense forum.) We measure our dates by the solar Christian calendar, even though we aren't Christian. You are half communist, half capitalist, which equals 100% European. I lived in China for a year and it was still hard to find the original 'China' within China.

I hope you understand that I'm not saying this to be disrespectful, but so that you fully understand the magnitude of the problem you are facing. Consider this as the perspective of a civilization that is friendly towards China, but the perennial nemesis of 'the West.' We have been at war with them since our birth, for fourteen hundred years, so we have some perspective on this issue. The 'image' problem that China faces is that it is seen as a derivative of the West, because it adopted westernism, in order to compete with the West. That's not necessarily a criticism... We get it. You did it because otherwise you would be exactly where we are today, at the bottom of the food chain. You decided to bite the bullet and go through a painful 'cultural revolution.'

China has reaped benefits of this (with the associated costs), but it still saddens us that China decided to go that route, just as I'm sure it enrages and confuses the rest of the world why we Muslims refuse to do the same. (We chose to sink in a 'dark age' instead, with all its associated costs. Ironically, that is exactly what the West decided to do in its own medieval era.) China on the other hand, decided to adopt Western principles, and is now on the verge of exceeding the West economically and militarily, but it seems like it can't lead the world culturally until it solves the confusion about its own identity... That's the perception.

But nevertheless, we wish China success in its competition with the US, and hope it finds a way to break out of the 'encirclement.' Unfortunately, we aren't yet strong enough to help much at this point, but at least China has indirectly benefited from the fact that for the past 20 years the US has been wasting time (and trillions of dollars) 'crusading' against us, just like its forefathers.
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Yes I agree with you. China doesn't have a strong identity apart from trade and investment. It's not an image or a philosophy that really unites anyone. I think China needs to offer something to the world on an ideological front or cultural front or something besides just trade and investment. Hence why soft power is so important. The ultra nationalism route and lets be stronger than the US so people will respect us doesn't work. Because overtaking the US is not achievable if the US pulls it's allies in to encircle you. Thanks for your perspective Mohsin.
 
free_6ix9ine

free_6ix9ine

Junior Member
Registered Member
Mohsin77 said:
Regarding the question of China's 'image' or power-projection problem, I'll give a friendly outsider's perspective... I think there is a confusion in the way China projects its image to the rest of the world, because there is confusion in how China perceives itself. If China stops being confused about itself, the rest of the world will stop being confused about China. Case in point:



That is a mistake. It is not "undue" at all. It's because America is the last standing house of a civilization which conquered the planet at one point, including both yours and my civilization. We are typing in English here, not Mandarin (even on a 'Sino' defense forum.) We measure our dates by the solar Christian calendar, even though we aren't Christian. You are half communist, half capitalist, which equals 100% European. I lived in China for a year and it was still hard to find the original 'China' within China.

I hope you understand that I'm not saying this to be disrespectful, but so that you fully understand the magnitude of the problem you are facing. Consider this as the perspective of a civilization that is friendly towards China, but the perennial nemesis of 'the West.' We have been at war with them since our birth, for fourteen hundred years, so we have some perspective on this issue. The 'image' problem that China faces is that it is seen as a derivative of the West, because it adopted westernism, in order to compete with the West. That's not necessarily a criticism... We get it. You did it because otherwise you would be exactly where we are today, at the bottom of the food chain. You decided to bite the bullet and go through a painful 'cultural revolution.'

China has reaped benefits of this (with the associated costs), but it still saddens us that China decided to go that route, just as I'm sure it enrages and confuses the rest of the world why we Muslims refuse to do the same. (We chose to sink in a 'dark age' instead, with all its associated costs. Ironically, that is exactly what the West decided to do in its own medieval era.) China on the other hand, decided to adopt Western principles, and is now on the verge of exceeding the West economically and militarily, but it seems like it can't lead the world culturally until it solves the confusion about its own identity... That's the perception.

But nevertheless, we wish China success in its competition with the US, and hope it finds a way to break out of the 'encirclement.' Unfortunately, we aren't yet strong enough to help much at this point, but at least China has indirectly benefited from the fact that for the past 20 years the US has been wasting time (and trillions of dollars) 'crusading' against us, just like its forefathers.
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One of the things specifically for the middle East is we should be vocal about supporting Palestinian rights. It earn us brownie points with many countries and shows countries why we are worthy of their support.
 
manqiangrexue

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
free_6ix9ine said:
The ultra nationalism route and lets be stronger than the US so people will respect us doesn't work. Because overtaking the US is not achievable if the US pulls it's allies in to encircle you.
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That's debatable, for two reasons. Firstly, China actually has far more STEM graduates than the EU and the US combined, possibly close to double, so scientifically, It's like having a USA and 2 EUs or some other combination, working together. That's a built-in mega-alliance. China's problem is that it started much later so there is a lot of catch up. Can such a massive force of scientists catch up to several smaller groups who have begun far far earlier? How long will it take? That's the debate. Secondly, the encirclement is weaker than it ever was under Trump and will continue to weaken as long as Trump is the president and the Chinese economy/market grows ever larger.
 
free_6ix9ine

free_6ix9ine

Junior Member
Registered Member
manqiangrexue said:
That's debatable, for two reasons. Firstly, China actually has far more STEM graduates than the EU and the US combined, possibly close to double, so scientifically, It's like having a USA and 2 EUs or some other combination, working together. That's a built-in mega-alliance. China's problem is that it started much later so there is a lot of catch up. Can such a massive force of scientists catch up to several smaller groups who have begun far far earlier? How long will it take? That's the debate. Secondly, the encirclement is weaker than it ever was under Trump and will continue to weaken as long as Trump is the president and the Chinese economy/market grows ever larger.
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Nope, I fundamentally disagree with that idea. STEM graduates are great, scientifically we are catching up or overtaking the US in some research areas. But what your talking about is becoming like the soviet union, that idea has been proven to be a failure. I hope every day that we can resolve our weakness in semiconductors and jet engines, but no one country can dominate EVERY industry or scientific field,

But new ideas, technology and research can come from all different types of countries around the world, and if we don't have access to that technology or research, because we are completely encircled by the US and its allies, then we will end up like the Soviet Union, our companies and industries will fall behind. We would end up spending time trying to re-engineer that tech, instead of developing new products etc.

Sure we might be able to replicate that technology, but that means a third-party country doesn't have to spend time or energy replicating that technology, and could instead use that resource to invent other technology instead and come up with a more compeling product.

EUV as an example, TSMC and Samsung are gonna overtake us because they have access to EUV. We do not, and we are going to spend years to re-engineer an EUV machine, by the time we get an EUV machine our chip industry will be behind by several generations. And if ASML comes up with a even better machine than EUV such as X-ray, etc. we are going to spend many more years to re-engineer that as well.

There is 3 solutions to this:
1) We capitulate to the US --> I don't think anyone in China want this
2) We seek Rapprochement with the US --> unlikely, the US is already gearing up for Cold War
3) We try to prevent complete technological encirclement, by solving our issues with US allies such as EU, South Korea, Japan, etc., WHILE at the same time, shoring up our own weaknesses, knowing that we cannot rely on foreign technology like before.
 
Equation

Equation

Lieutenant General
manqiangrexue said:
That's debatable, for two reasons. Firstly, China actually has far more STEM graduates than the EU and the US combined, possibly close to double, so scientifically, It's like having a USA and 2 EUs or some other combination, working together. That's a built-in mega-alliance. China's problem is that it started much later so there is a lot of catch up. Can such a massive force of scientists catch up to several smaller groups who have begun far far earlier? How long will it take? That's the debate.
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I believe China's massive force of scientists can catch up with the smaller more established groups within a decade or two. It is more advantageous for China because of the sheer number and culture of learning that will enable it to catch up.
 
free_6ix9ine

free_6ix9ine

Junior Member
Registered Member
Equation said:
I believe China's massive force of scientists can catch up with the smaller more established groups within a decade or two. It is more advantageous for China because of the sheer number and culture of learning that will enable it to catch up.
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Thats an advantage, but that won't be enough. New tech can emerge from anywhere in the world, we will be spending years trying to re-engineer everything, and by the time we catch-up, our products will be outdated and not competitive anymore. Meaning that third party countries like South Korea can benefit from having access to that tech without needing to re-engineer everything from scratch. Imagine if ASML comes out with an X-ray or Y-ray machine that is hypothetically even better than EUV. Samsung can buy that machine, build a better chip and sell their phones on the global market in 1 year. While Huawei has to go and reinvent an X-ray machine, build a better chip, and sell their phones in 10 years. We will always be behind.
 
manqiangrexue

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
free_6ix9ine said:
Nope, I fundamentally disagree with that idea. STEM graduates are great, scientifically we are catching up or overtaking the US in some research areas. But what your talking about is becoming like the soviet union, that idea has been proven to be a failure. I hope every day that we can resolve our weakness in semiconductors and jet engines, but no one country can dominate EVERY industry or scientific field,

But new ideas, technology and research can come from all different types of countries around the world, and if we don't have access to that technology or research, because we are completely encircled by the US and its allies, then we will end up like the Soviet Union, our companies and industries will fall behind. We would end up spending time trying to re-engineer that tech, instead of developing new products etc.

Sure we might be able to replicate that technology, but that means a third-party country doesn't have to spend time or energy replicating that technology, and could instead use that resource to invent other technology instead and come up with a more compeling product.

EUV as an example, TSMC and Samsung are gonna overtake us because they have access to EUV. We do not, and we are going to spend years to re-engineer an EUV machine, by the time we get an EUV machine our chip industry will be behind by several generations. And if ASML comes up with a even better machine than EUV such as X-ray, etc. we are going to spend many more years to re-engineer that as well.

There is 3 solutions to this:
1) We capitulate to the US --> I don't think anyone in China want this
2) We seek Rapprochement with the US --> unlikely, the US is already gearing up for Cold War
3) We try to prevent complete technological encirclement, by solving our issues with US allies such as EU, South Korea, Japan, etc., WHILE at the same time, shoring up our own weaknesses, knowing that we cannot rely on foreign technology like before.
Click to expand...
First of all, the entire reason that new tech can come from anywhere in the world is that the population of scientists is so large that by chance, it can happen anywhere where science is adequately funded, and when China funds its research properly, that means that there is a greater chance that it will come from China than anywhere else.

You said what if ASML comes out with a better machine. What if not? What if, instead, China leaps generations in lithography because it has more scientists, more funding, and becomes unstoppable once it builds the momentum? That's the whole point I was making about China's overwhelmingly large STEM population.

Also, I'm not saying to isolate, China vs. the world. Never. I'm saying that America's encirclement seems less likely under Trump (which was the beginning of our discussion) and also that Chinese strength is the key to gaining allies. Basically, it's pretty much your #3 option. Our disagreement was not on that; it was on you saying that China needs to soften and hide its powers to gain alliances in Asia and I said that weakness or disarmament never gains allies because countries always want to follow strength to assure that they are on the winning side.
 
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