China ICBM/SLBM, nuclear arms thread

[sunnymaxi]

China is not investing much into SSBN because the budget is stretched thin as it is. And outside of hypotheticals, it would never really come down to nuclear exchanges. But I guess more SSBN and other stuff are coming, for the future generations when nuclear warfare might swing towards winnable.

despite geographical limitations and other factors. China still investing decent amount of money in SSBNs .. we have seen a lot money spending in tech breakthrough for nuke submarines in previous 2 five year plans ..

next generation heavy SLBM currently under development. kalec have mentioned it ..

type 094B variant coming or already entered in production.

type 096 design and technologies finalized. first unit assembly can start soon

 

[ashnole]

What's the point in investing big in SSBNs without securing Taiwan first? The deep waters, where SSBNs can patrol safely, all lie to the east of Taiwan. Without Taiwan secured, your current SSBNs are basically just submerged SLBM-carrying pontoons that don't offer anything more than what your land-based ICBM silos do.

An assured second strike capability will only come after taking Taiwan. You may construct a hundred more ICBM silos on ground or put into orbit a dozen warheads as part of FOBS, it won't change anything.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

What's the point in investing big in SSBNs without securing Taiwan first? The deep waters, where SSBNs can patrol safely, all lie to the east of Taiwan. Without Taiwan secured, your current SSBNs are basically just submerged SLBM-carrying pontoons that don't offer anything more than what your land-based ICBM silos do.

An assured second strike capability will only come after taking Taiwan. You may construct a hundred more ICBM silos on ground or put into orbit a dozen warheads as part of FOBS, it won't change anything.

enemies also can't enter shallow water effectively as a SSBN only needs to float neutral bouyant in the middle of the water column and move very slowly, and there's no thermocline for enemies to hide under. no thermoclines for your own subs to hide under is not that bad since presumably you'll have air cover.

 

[Blitzo]

What's the point in investing big in SSBNs without securing Taiwan first? The deep waters, where SSBNs can patrol safely, all lie to the east of Taiwan. Without Taiwan secured, your current SSBNs are basically just submerged SLBM-carrying pontoons that don't offer anything more than what your land-based ICBM silos do.

An assured second strike capability will only come after taking Taiwan. You may construct a hundred more ICBM silos on ground or put into orbit a dozen warheads as part of FOBS, it won't change anything.

Because nuclear submarines have reached a point where passive silencing is so good that once a submarine reaches the open ocean they are very difficult to track.

For the PLA, the historical limiting factor for SSBNs is not Taiwan, but having sufficiently quiet nuclear submarines to begin with. While having Taiwan under possession would be helpful, it is not essential.


Furthermore, investing "big" into SSBNs is relative. There is a difference between a fleet of 8-10 SSBNs versus the cold war scale SSBN fleets navies had. Even if you want a moderately sized SSBN fleet (while the bulk of one's nuclear weapons are at land based silos and/or TELs), you still need to actually have a fleet where your crew can train and operate, which gives you a minimum floor number of SSBN hulls that you need.

 

[Kalec]

Five strategic solid motors still under development in 2022.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

My guess is 3 solid motors for new-gen ICBM and 2 motors for new-gen SLBM and the development seemed to be in the final stage as of 2022.

It surprises me that the next-gen ICBM/SLBM may have already had its first flight test.

A short essay titled "Launch site Belles-lettres" written by team leader of "Five Strategic Solid Motors"

Machine translation:

Suddenly a distant roar woke me up from the shock of nature, tracing back towards the source of the sound, a brighter star (ICBM) slowly rose from the horizon with a glittering tail flame, accompanied by a loud roar, slowly but firmly flying towards the depths of the black and blue night sky, the huge light illuminating half of the night sky. This star is the essence of mankind's industrial science and technology, and it also condenses our heart and soul, and it is the majestic force that pushes the rejuvenation of China, and it flies up towards the night sky firmly and inexorably, just like its countless ancestors before. It was burning itself, yes, its whole life was waiting for a moment of splendor.

As the roar faded into the distance, the great glow slowly faded away, and the night returned as it had been, everything as if nothing had happened. However, out of sight, it flew at high speed across the skyline, eventually leaving the world's most perfect arc (ballistic trajectory) in the sky like shooting star (MIRV?), landing gracefully in the sand (Ruoqiang ICBM impact zone) that people had prepared for it, as gently as a child falling into its mother's arms.

The night was lit up with lights, and people were already raising their glasses in celebration of what was going to be a joyous and sleepless night. Some of the stars (US and Russia EW sats) winked at them all night long from the pale green sky.

Some thoughts:

1. The author doesn't specify how many shooting star landed in the sand, but he uses the term "it" instead of "them" while "it" and "they" are quite similar in Chinese. It is hard to tell whether it is a MIRV test.

2. The launch site is Taiyuan, however there was a launch back in July, thought to be a routine readiness test in Jilantai. It could be wrong, actually a new test from Taiyuan.

3. The last para mentioned that they (development team) are celebrating the launch sleepless. It seems to me to be relative to new ICBM development instead of routine DF-41 test.

忽然远处的轰鸣声将我从大自然的震撼中惊醒过来，向着声音的源头追溯而去，一颗更明亮的星星从地平线缓慢升起，带着闪光的尾焰，伴着巨大的轰鸣声，缓慢而坚定地向着黑青色夜幕深处飞去，巨大的光芒将半个夜空都照亮了。这颗星星是人类工业科技的精华，也凝聚着我们的心血，更是推动华夏复兴的磅礴力量，它坚定而又不可阻挡地向着夜空飞起，就像之前它的无数个先辈一样。它在燃烧自己，是的，它的一生都在等待着片刻的辉煌。

随着轰鸣声逐渐远去，巨大的光芒慢慢消失，夜幕恢复如初，一切就像什么都没发生过一样。然而在视线看不到的地方，它在天际线上高速飞行，最终像流星一样在天边留下世界上最完美的弧线，优雅地落在人们为它准备的沙地里，就像一个孩子跌落在母亲的怀抱中一样的轻柔。

夜幕下，灯火如昼，人们已经开始举杯庆祝，今晚将是一个欢乐的不眠之夜。淡青色的天空上，有些星星眨着眼睛看着他们，一整夜。

Source:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

What's the point in investing big in SSBNs without securing Taiwan first? The deep waters, where SSBNs can patrol safely, all lie to the east of Taiwan. Without Taiwan secured, your current SSBNs are basically just submerged SLBM-carrying pontoons that don't offer anything more than what your land-based ICBM silos do.

An assured second strike capability will only come after taking Taiwan. You may construct a hundred more ICBM silos on ground or put into orbit a dozen warheads as part of FOBS, it won't change anything.

Just some add-on to @Blitzo's comment.

Having sufficient numbers of SSBNs is actually capable of overcoming geographic limitations China faces right now. At present, China has 6-8x 094/A SSBNs.

A wild assumption from me here - If China does apply the "3-3-rule" WRT to her SSBN fleet, then China should have at least 1-2x SSBNs on constant nuclear deterrence patrol at all times. This means in case all the 094/A SSBNs stationed at Sanya are suddenly immobilized/destroyed due to a pre-emptive first strike, China still has at least 1-2x 094s sailing in the wide Pacific to conduct retaliatory strikes against the enemy.

In fact, the Pentagon has already confirmed that to be the case for China right now:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

So, what China should actually do in order to secure and enhance her sea-based nuclear deterrence capabilities are, to:
1. Increase the size of the SSBN fleet by introducing more newer and better SSBNs; and
2. Increase the number of SSBNs that can conduct nuclear deterrence patrol at all times, such as by simplifying replenishment & upkeep, plus reducing maintenance & refueling periods.

Meanwhile, it is expected that 2x 094Bs will be added to China's SSBN fleet by the mid-2020s, which should bring the total to 8-10x SSBNs. By that time, it is possible for China to have at least 2-3x SSBNs conducting nuclear deterrence patrol at all times.

For note, outside of China:
1. The US has 14 SSBNs of the Ohio-class;
2. Russia has 10-11 SSBNs of the Delta-IV and Borei-classes;
3. The UK has 4 SSBNs of the Vanguard-class;
4. France has 4 SSBNs of the Triomphant-class; and
5. India has 2 SSBNs of the Arihant-class.

I think China should aim for an eventual total of 10-12x SSBNs for her sea-based nuclear deterrence arm.

 

[Blitzo]

It surprises me that the next-gen ICBM/SLBM may have already had its first flight test.

A short essay titled "Launch site Belles-lettres" written by team leader of "Five Strategic Solid Motors"

Machine translation:

Suddenly a distant roar woke me up from the shock of nature, tracing back towards the source of the sound, a brighter star (ICBM) slowly rose from the horizon with a glittering tail flame, accompanied by a loud roar, slowly but firmly flying towards the depths of the black and blue night sky, the huge light illuminating half of the night sky. This star is the essence of mankind's industrial science and technology, and it also condenses our heart and soul, and it is the majestic force that pushes the rejuvenation of China, and it flies up towards the night sky firmly and inexorably, just like its countless ancestors before. It was burning itself, yes, its whole life was waiting for a moment of splendor.

As the roar faded into the distance, the great glow slowly faded away, and the night returned as it had been, everything as if nothing had happened. However, out of sight, it flew at high speed across the skyline, eventually leaving the world's most perfect arc (ballistic trajectory) in the sky like shooting star (MIRV?), landing gracefully in the sand (Ruoqiang ICBM impact zone) that people had prepared for it, as gently as a child falling into its mother's arms.

The night was lit up with lights, and people were already raising their glasses in celebration of what was going to be a joyous and sleepless night. Some of the stars (US and Russia EW sats) winked at them all night long from the pale green sky.

Some thoughts:

1. The author doesn't specify how many shooting star landed in the sand, but he uses the term "it" instead of "them" while "it" and "they" are quite similar in Chinese. It is hard to tell whether it is a MIRV test.

2. The launch site is Taiyuan, however there was a launch back in July, thought to be a routine readiness test in Jilantai. It could be wrong, actually a new test from Taiyuan.

3. The last para mentioned that they (development team) are celebrating the launch sleepless. It seems to me to be relative to new ICBM development instead of routine DF-41 test.



Source:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Would there be any indication here as to whether it would be an ICBM versus a SLBM?

As I understand it, the only ICBM we are expecting to be in development and/or testing should be the "DF-45" silo heavy ICBM, while the only SLBM we are expecting to be in development and/or testing would be JL-3.

Unless there are others?

 

[Kalec]

Would there be any indication here as to whether it would be an ICBM versus a SLBM?

As I understand it, the only ICBM we are expecting to be in development and/or testing should be the "DF-45" silo heavy ICBM, while the only SLBM we are expecting to be in development and/or testing would be JL-3.

Unless there are others?

Preferable DF-XY ofc, because the first para of essay mentions "northwestern Shanxi in summer" which clearly means to be Taiyuan/Wuzhai.

The author aged 33 was a young postdoc before joining CASC in 2019 despite being team leader of strategic engines. The average age of this team is lower than 35, according to the newspaper last year. It is very unlikely that he was involved in any ICBM/SLBM development before 2019 when DF-41 and JL-2/2A had already entered into service.


It really confused me that I can't find a similar NOTAM matching all these pattern:
1. The flight took place in a summer night.
2. It is supposed to be an ICBM/SLBM.
3. Should have taken place this year

Full text in Chinese:

靶场随笔- 刘凯

夏日里晋西北的夜晚凉爽得沁人心脾，没有一丝暑气。惬意地坐在山坡上，金色的晚霞温柔地洒在身上，混着柔和的清风，像儿时母亲歌谣那样令人安宁，我沉醉于其中，不能自拔。在喧闹的都市生活中，我已不知多久没有关注过类似的美景，在靶场这片刻的宁静中，我找回了久违的感动。

此时太阳已经收敛了所有爆裂的气息，变得安静温暖起来，连直射的光芒也变得流水一样柔和，金色自天边开始蔓延，将晋西北粗犷山脉的轮廓映射得像江南女子温柔的眉黛，我贪婪地欣赏着眼前的美景，妄想将每一个细节都镌刻在脑海里。

不知多久之后，黑暗吞没了天地间的最后一丝光明，恍惚之中我才发现夜幕已经悄然垂下。我站起身来，环顾四周，漫天繁星已挂满夜空。此时，周围一片寂静，似乎连风儿都停了下来，广袤的天地间似乎只有我一人，被漫天星河围绕着。天旋地转之间，这亘古未变的星空似乎在向我吟唱着历史的歌谣。如果说之前的夕阳像温柔的母亲一样让人感动，那此刻的星空则像浩大的画卷一样令人震撼。

忽然远处的轰鸣声将我从大自然的震撼中惊醒过来，向着声音的源头追溯而去，一颗更明亮的星星从地平线缓慢升起，带着闪光的尾焰，伴着巨大的轰鸣声，缓慢而坚定地向着黑青色夜幕深处飞去，巨大的光芒将半个夜空都照亮了。这颗星星是人类工业科技的精华，也凝聚着我们的心血，更是推动华夏复兴的磅礴力量，它坚定而又不可阻挡地向着夜空飞起，就像之前它的无数个先辈一样。它在燃烧自己，是的，它的一生都在等待着片刻的辉煌。

随着轰鸣声逐渐远去，巨大的光芒慢慢消失，夜幕恢复如初，一切就像什么都没发生过一样。然而在视线看不到的地方，它在天际线上高速飞行，最终像流星一样在天边留下世界上最完美的弧线，优雅地落在人们为它准备的沙地里，就像一个孩子跌落在母亲的怀抱中一样的轻柔。

夜幕下，灯火如昼，人们已经开始举杯庆祝，今晚将是一个欢乐的不眠之夜。淡青色的天空上，有些星星眨着眼睛看着他们，一整夜。

English machine translation:

Launch site Belles-lettres - Liu Kai

The night in northwestern Shanxi in summer is cool and refreshing, without a trace of heat. Sitting comfortably on the hillside, the golden evening sunlight sprinkled gently on my body, mixed with the soft breeze, like my childhood mother's song as peaceful, I was dazzled, could not help myself. In the hustle and bustle of city life, I do not know how long I have not paid attention to beauty of nature, in this moment of tranquility at the launch site, I found a long-lost touch.


At this time the sun has softened all the burst of breath, become quiet and warm, even direct light has become as soft as water, the golden color from the sky began to spread, the outline of the rugged mountains of Northwest Shanxi will be mapped like a woman's brow, I greedily appreciate the beauty of the scenery in front of me, want to engraved in my mind each and every detail.


I don't know how long later, the darkness engulfed the last trace of light between sky and earth, and in a trance I realized that the night had quietly fallen. I stood up and looked around, the sky was full of stars. At this time, the surrounding is silent, it seems that even the wind has stopped, I was the only one between the vast expanse of sky and earth, surrounded by the milky way of ancient stars, which was chanting the song of history to me. If the previous sunset was as touching as a gentle mother, the starry sky at this moment was as shocking as a vast painting.

Suddenly a distant roar woke me up from the shock of nature, tracing back towards the source of the sound, a brighter star slowly rose from the horizon with a glittering tail flame, accompanied by a loud roar, slowly but firmly flying towards the depths of the black and blue night sky, the huge light illuminating half of the night sky. This star is the essence of mankind's industrial science and technology, and it also condenses our heart and soul, and it is the majestic force that pushes the rejuvenation of China, and it flies up towards the night sky firmly and inexorably, just like its countless ancestors before. It was burning itself, yes, its whole life was waiting for a moment of splendor.

As the roar faded into the distance, the great glow slowly faded away, and the night returned as it had been, everything as if nothing had happened. However, out of sight, it flew at high speed across the skyline, eventually leaving the world's most perfect arc (ballistic trajectory) in the sky like shooting star, landing gracefully in the sand that people had prepared for it, as gently as a child falling into its mother's arms.

The night was lit up with lights, and people were already raising their glasses in celebration of what was going to be a joyous and sleepless night. Some of the stars (US and Russia EW sats) winked at them all night long from the pale green sky.

My guess is that it was the test on July 12. The NOTAM window was between 23:23 and 23:59 Beijing Time on 07/12/2023. And they didn't disclose the dropzones of other stages which was probably deep inside Mongolian desert.



For comparison, the dropzone of DF-41 is like this one, also with only one dropzone but larger:

 

[sunnymaxi]

Preferable DF-XY ofc, because the first para of essay mentions "northwestern Shanxi in summer" which clearly means to be Taiyuan/Wuzhai.

The author aged 33 was a young postdoc before joining CASC in 2019 despite being team leader of strategic engines. The average age of this team is lower than 35, according to the newspaper last year. It is very unlikely that he was involved in any ICBM/SLBM development before 2019 when DF-41 and JL-2/2A had already entered into service.


It really confused me that I can't find a similar NOTAM matching all these pattern:
1. The flight took place in a summer night.
2. It is supposed to be an ICBM/SLBM.
3. Should have taken place this year

Full text in Chinese:


English machine translation:



My guess is that it was the test on July 12. The NOTAM window was between 23:23 and 23:59 Beijing Time on 07/12/2023. And they didn't disclose the dropzones of other stages which was probably deep inside Mongolian desert.

View attachment 117631

For comparison, the dropzone of DF-41 is like this one, also with only one dropzone but larger:

View attachment 117632

bro you also mentioned next generation SLBM development other than JL-3 in your previous posts. could be JL-4 ..

diameter of 2.3 meters

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

A modernized H-8 would be too far unambitious. A subsonic 6 engine plane is still a subsonic 6 engine plane.

Feels like China missed the bus in the mid 20th century with the B-52 and Tu-22M era to build a big strategic bomber and building one now is a waste, might as well go for a semi-stealthy supersonic one or a super stealthy subsonic.

Indeed. A real shame that the H-8 project was cancelled in favor of the Y-10 project (which was also cancelled in the end).

Had the H-8s enter serial production in the 1970s or 1980s, the older H-8s could receive significant MLU (including swapping the original WS-6J with WS-18 or WS-20). Meanwhile, Xi'an can introduce newer H-8 variants which conform to 21st-century technological standards (like the H-6K/J/Ns vis-a-vis the older H-6 variants) too.

Either way, it's not like China can't mitigate this obvious shortcoming (when compared to American and Russian peers) either. Sooner or later, the B-21s will eventually replace the B-52H/Js, considering the latter's age.

In the meantime, the PLAAF should just procure more H-20s and JH-XXs to fill the "heavy-weight missile carrier" gap between China and the US. The goal for China's bomber fleet (both tactical and strategic) should be ~300 units.

Xi'an and Shenyang just need to make sure that their internal bomb bays can fit larger-sized ALBMs, ALCMs and ALHMs (which should be anticipated in the coming decades). Maybe 2x ALBM/ALCM/ALHMs per JH-XX and 4-6x ALBM/ALCM/ALHMs per H-20 would be a good arrangement.