China Flanker Thread II

[Blitzo]

Western countries don't have any 5th gens except the us who has a few f-22s.

I meant like the F-22 and F-35. The F-35 will be in service pretty soon.
If China made new J-11B's, it'll be a bit of a waste. No matter how many upgrades they get, they'll probably still be inferior to the F-22 and F-35 (unless they get upgrades like the F-15SE, but that is unlikely to happen. Much more efficient to just build their own 5th gens).

 

[jackbh]

The problem with the F-22 is that it's so expensive and hard to maintain. The F-35 is also expensive but not as much as F-22. I read reports about F-35 coming from the Australians that the F-35 is not really that superior than the Su-27. It doesn't have as good dog fight capabilities as the Su-27. And it is also expensive. Maybe with the money to buy a F-35 China could build many J-11Bs.

 

[Blitzo]

I see your reasoning.

But the options I see are: produce more J-11Bs, or develop 5th gens.

Being labelled as the country who has the most potential to compete with the US, I think China will probably develop 5th gens rather than make more J-11Bs.

And I think I know of the Australian thing you're talking about.
Personally I think they're exaggerating a tad.

Besides, from everything we've seen and heard of (new technologies at Zhuhai, photos of wind tunnel tests, WS-15, AESA), I think it's most probable that China's allocating more cash to new gen planes.
The fact that China's not going with Russia to develop a 5th gen means either the Chinese aren't interested in 5th gens, or they're gonna develop one themselves.

I haven't heard of too many new J-11B's coming into service as well ( I could be wrong, I don't follow squadrons or regiments closely).
But either way, I am sure the Chinese know that the J-11B can only go so far against high performance 5th gen (albiet high maintnance) planes.

PS: Sorry to anyone if my message seems a bit confrontational. It's what you get when you debate with people on Youtube all the time -.-)

 

[crobato]

I don't see how developing 5th gens and producing J-11Bs are mutually exclusive. It will be a while before China is able to develop 5th gens, and you're not going to hold your breath for it. In the meantime, make all the J-11Bs you can, and stop only once the 5th gen is in service.

The only reasonable competition you have with the J-11B is the J-10, whether or not you want to make more or less J-10s, then adjust your quota for the J-11B accordingly. More J-10s can mean less J-11Bs and vice versa. Considering the new J-10B in development...

Then again, we need to see how the J-11B is squeezing into the JH-7A space as well.

 

[Blitzo]

Right. Well I think the J-10/B is a better plane to be made in mass than the J-11B. The J-11B is still a pretty large RCS I think. Even with the speculated RCS reductions.

On the other hand the J-10/B is much smaller and stealthier as well as newer.
Unless China makes a big development on the J-11B, I don't think it has too much of a long life in the PLAAF.

 

[crobato]

I would think the same way. Kind of like the way so many 054As are being made against the 052Cs, or 96Gs vs. 99Gs.

I do think however the J-11B has much greater range than the J-10. The PLAAF should have figured out their priorities and what they want from the plane even before the J-11B project started. The fact they went through all this effort suggests the plane is vitally important to their long term plans.

But if J-11Bs don't hold up to J-10s in exercises, that will be another story...

 

[Blitzo]

Hmm well the 052C's are technology demonstrators almost, a bit of a bad comparison but I get the gist.

The J-11B does have greater range indeed. On cnair.com it says China's building a new carrier fighter similar to the F/A-18E only that it contains experience and tech from the J-11B and J-XX.
I think of the J-11B as the catalyst to all future long range fighters for the PLAAF.

I do believe that they'll use experience from the J-11B to build newer, more survivable 4++ platforms, and then eventually 5th gens. Obviously it's not simply changing the fuselage and adding indigenous engines, but I think China won't be adding too many 4++ long range fighters within the next couple of years.

 

[crobato]

I think they will continue to add more 4th gen fighters, if only to replace those 3rd gen fighters. But they won't show a torrid pace for it. Just maybe a regiment or two for about a year or a year and a half for each type, mainly J-11B, J-10, JH-7A and even J-8F. I would expect they would build a second regiment of J-11B, and sooner or later the PLANAF will get their updates. The defense industry is also a job creation industry, and thus they will continue to build these planes.

If you consider your fighters not as advanced, you may like to compensate with numbers. If there is any feeling of perceived technological inferiority in the PLAAF, they will try to compensate with numbers. Not with numbers of really cheap, less capable aircraft, but at least with numbers of more capable aircraft even if they perceive the opponent still has technological superiority. Both numbers and technology are a two flank attack to reduce the capability gap. The fact alone they still produce and deploy the J-8F tells you a bit of their mindset.

The question with the J-11s is what to do with all the older planes? Do you want to upgrade them, at least to the same radar and electronics standard as the J-11B?

 

[Blitzo]

Indeed. I think the PLANAF will get many more JH-7/A's and perhaps even J-11B's.

The J-10/B I think will be the frontline fighter for China for the next few years, if it indeed does contain an ESA radar.

I personally think that China does have the capability to eventually catch up to the US in terms of technology; but you're right. Numbers is probably the only compensation right now. Though times are changing.

The J-8F's are still being produced? OMG. This is kind of worrying.

I personally think the older J-11's will be eventually upgraded. But if they don't I don't think it will be THAT much of a problem. They're still extremely capable aircraft.

 

[Mr_C]

I personally think the older J-11's will be eventually upgraded. But if they don't I don't think it will be THAT much of a problem. They're still extremely capable aircraft.

Just a question, wonldn't the old J-11s airframe will be abit too old due to machine stress etc. So upgrading them may not be as feasible as building new J-11Bs to replace them?