China Flanker Thread II

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Semi-Lobster

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Just a question, wonldn't the old J-11s airframe will be abit too old due to machine stress etc. So upgrading them may not be as feasible as building new J-11Bs to replace them?

J-8Ds have been upgraded to J-8H standards, even with excessive usage and the time gap between those two variants are even less than the J-11 so I see no problem. Depending on extensive the refurbishment process is, an airframe can be made nearly 'good as new' although there are of course limits
 

Blitzo

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J-8Ds have been upgraded to J-8H standards, even with excessive usage and the time gap between those two variants are even less than the J-11 so I see no problem. Depending on extensive the refurbishment process is, an airframe can be made nearly 'good as new' although there are of course limits
Yeah Semi Lobster pretty much summed it up right there. The fact remains that the J-11 is still a very capable 4th gen air superiority fighter with a quite moderate life span left.

I think it simply wouldn't be worth it to build more J-11B's. Though modernized and much better than the baseline Flanker, the fact remains it's no good against Western 5th gens.

I think we'll see them upgrade J-11's like the US is doing to their Eagles. Newer radars to prolong service; to counter the upgraded Eagles, while simultaneously build newer 5th gens to try and match Raptors.
If we start building J-11B's, in a few decades when they're still around they'll be almost regulated to only home air patrol or protection of shipping. Still. Only my opinion.
 

crobato

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I think J-11Bs will be made for a while, even followed by J-11Cs or Ds. I'm not sure and I don't think they're trying to beat the West, just the fact you got a plane right along is enough for the meantime. If its just a radar upgrade, they won't have invested in developing such a brand new airframe with at least 10,000 flight hours of life. Given so, they obviously plan to keep this airplane for a long time.

As long as 5th gen is in development and not in service, they will build the J-11s. The PRC will build more J-10s, but J-11s will have their share, because its a job subsidy in another province, Shenyang, as opposed to Chengdu.

5th Gen isn't easy to develop, and I don't think you can develop this soon enough. There will be many years before the first one comes out. In all this time, J-11s will be produced.

I think J-8F should be put to the pasture, but its because its cheap and that's why they make it. They figured out the advantages outweigh the costs.

There is a possibility that the Russian made planes, particularly in the first and second batches are getting old and won't be upgraded. The first batch will be twenty years old by 2012. For all the trouble, you might as well replace them with brand new J-11s.

Its possible that a number of the late production J-11A, may already have incorporated provisions for upgrades, since their production overlaps into the development phase of the J-11B.
 

Blitzo

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Indeed 5th gens are definetly not easy to develop. But apparently it's been going since 1997. I remember reading an article somewhere that the ONI that.
China probably will have it's first 5th generation fighter aircraft before 2020, perhaps even around 2015, from what some of the blogs and material that I have read.
Sinodefence of course says it may take several decades, but I find it always pretty pessemestic about all Chinese military technology and developments. That's why it's so reliable.
 

crobato

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In order to develop a 5th gen fighter, the company has to have some financing. The way to do this, is to give that company a contract so it can pay its workers and engineers. Hence, this contract is the J-11B.

The Russians, or Sukhoi in particular, was trying to use the money earned from the Su-30MKK and MK2 contracts to help finance PAK-FA. That's why they're so stunned---and pained---that the MK2 contracts never proceeded from the first. Of course, if you are in the Chinese side, you realize that you would want to use your own money for your own development.

Its not certain that SAC---long the darling of the PRC defense establishment and the CCCP---has won the 5th gen contract. CAC, the upstart, is definitely vying for it. They most will have competing designs, winner takes all, unless they decided on a hi lo mix. Either way, SAC needs to keep going on or it has to lay off and close shop. The J-11B and to an extent, the J-8F, are job and company subsidies. The aircraft industry is particularly sensitive unlike the ship builders because they got little civilian contracts to fall on. That goes with XAC, who does the JH-7A.

I don't think it would take decades. I believe that a prototype can be flying before 2020. That's my personal opinion.
 

Blitzo

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Couldn't the CCP fund the development of the respective companies 5th gens? I mean, China is communist. The state could fund such a programme without having to sell itself goods to be able to finance a project.
Is SAC and CAC private companies?
 

crobato

Colonel
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Couldn't the CCP fund the development of the respective companies 5th gens? I mean, China is communist. The state could fund such a programme without having to sell itself goods to be able to finance a project.
Is SAC and CAC private companies?

Even state owned entities are responsible for their bottom line. The same can be said of the state owned shipyards as well.

Funding the fifth gens alone would even be much more expensive because you are also funding to keep these companies alive, which are also essential down the line. You simply cannot do it. At least with contracts, you get planes out of it. Funding for the sake of pure development, you don't get any material out of it and not for a long time.

You have to understand, funding development doesn't fund the network of component subcontractors that are satellites to the company. But with a real contract you do. Manufacturing is a perishable skill that applies equally to the main company as it is with the satellite contractors. Without a contract that manufactures, workers don't build, loss skill, gets laid off and its very hard to rebuild manufacturing capacity again. Humpty Dumpy is the best way to describe manufacturing skill. Lose it, and you will never put it back again. You need to keep the manufacturing jobs and the best way to do that is to keep them busy.
 

duskylim

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Dear Crob:

Arent' SAC and CAC both part of the former AVIC 1? And now with the re-consolidation of China's aircraft industry have both become parts of the new united AVIC?

And the new unified AVIC has created a military aircraft division to take care of these projects?

What I am asking is: in view of all this, is there really that much competition between these two branches of the same organization?

Regards,

Dusky Lim
 

crobato

Colonel
VIP Professional
Dear Crob:

Arent' SAC and CAC both part of the former AVIC 1? And now with the re-consolidation of China's aircraft industry have both become parts of the new united AVIC?

And the new unified AVIC has created a military aircraft division to take care of these projects?

What I am asking is: in view of all this, is there really that much competition between these two branches of the same organization?

Regards,

Dusky Lim


Yes there is competition. Even among state owned giants they freely compete and claw against each other aka China Mobile vs. China Unicom.

I see AVIC more as a unified front for exportation, similar to Rossoboronexport for the Russians.

You can see the uniqueness of each company. SAC doesn't make JF-17s and CAC doesn't make J-11s.

Back in the eighties and nineties, the Chinese government essentially forced state owned enterprises to have a swim or sink policy. Those who aren't competitive, simply died, no stimulus, no bailout nothing.
 

zaky

Junior Member
A news have appared on
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abot the ritiringmant fo the eraly su 27. Can sombody confirm this?

Chinese Su-27s Die Of Old Age
April 7, 2009: The Chinese Air Force is retiring its first Su-27 fighters, or at least the airframes. These were bought in the early 1990s, but 24 of them have reached their service life of 5,000 flight hours. This is a limitation all aircraft have, although it can often be extended. The F-16, for example, had a service life of 4,000 flight hours, but through the replacement of some airframe components, that was extended to 8,000 hours. The U.S. A-10 also had its service life extended from 8,000 to 28,000 hours. Same deal with the B-52, which had its useful life more than doubled, via several refurbishments, to 28,000 hours.
Engines, electronics and other components have different service lives. So these retired Su-27s are stripped of most components, for reuse as spare parts for other aircraft. Russian warplanes have, historically, had short service lives. This includes all components, especially engines. The MiG-29 was designed to last only 2,500 hours in the air. A refurbishment program has since been developed to extend that to 4,000 hours.

The MiG-29 was a watershed design for the Russians in the 1970s, who were beginning to build more sturdy aircraft on the Western model. Thus the Su-27s, which were designed a few years after the MiG-29, had the longer, for Russian aircraft, service life of 5,000 hours. Before that, most Russian aircraft were only good for 2-3,000 flight hours.

The Chinese Su-27s, which normally have two pilots assigned (a common practice worldwide) apparently allowed each pilot to get 120-130 hours a year in the air. That's less than Western pilots get, but twice what pilots used to get in communist countries. That's because these nations had Russian aircraft that would be quickly worn out if you allowed the pilots to fly them as much as their Western counterparts. But the Russians saw the error of their ways before the end of the Cold War, but not in time to re-equip their air force with pilots trained to a Western standard.
 
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