I differ, the Su-35 has a decade window for exports, first, the first J-20 and T-50s will not be ready for export probably until 2020-2025.
The Russians do not expect to export T-50 beyond India until probably 2018.
Most air forces in the world, in example africa, latin america, won`t buy stealth fighters in at least 15-20 years from now.
Most arab airforces can not afford to buy Eurofighters, so fighter like Su-35s or Gripen will be in demand.
The J-11B does not represent the latest advances in technology, however their prize, most be very competitive.
Engine technology also is not only a matter of technology but of reliability.
To gauge the real state of engine technology in china is hard to know, but i can assure that 3S
(Supermaneouvrability, STOL, supercruise) of a fifth generation fighter rest on the engine and the last S
Stealth can be defeated by radar and avionics, in fact a 400km 3 square meters target detectability, means a F-35 might be detected at around 100km of distance and both Rafale and Su-35 have IRST of 90-110 km of range.
So why China wants to buy a Su-35? answer the 117, however this is dependant upon what engines they have now and what they will have in 2020.
But the Russians expect to have the T-30 engine by 2018 on T-50s, so selling the Su-35 is not to much risk now.
The Su-35 flies with two next generation AL-41F1C engines that enable it to achieve hypersonic speed without afterburner, a feature attributed to 5G jets. And AL-41F1C actually is a de-rated version of the AL-41F1 (117C) engine used on the undergoing tests T-50 PAK-FA, Russian 5G fighter
In 2010, when Russia’s Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov was on visit to China, Beijing proposed to buy 117C engines, but the offer was turned down.
Russians agreed to sell only assembled planes and in addition insist on signing a special anti-copycat agreement, designed to prevent the Chinese from copying the vehicle and its parts, as has happened before
Yes. The 117 engine is a very very good engine and uptill now I doubt any of Chinese domestic engine is up on par with this engine. However, like I mentioned before, the current government in China favour domestic innovation and development. Afterall, China had the WS-10A up and running and will not require the Russian engines (no matter how good).
The Chinese might not want the Su-35 because domestic variant is good enough for their needs. Like I have also mentioned before, different countries had different doctrine and requirement, the Chinese might find their J-11/J-11B and J10 good enough, and so rather than introduce another aircraft (another set of logistical problem) into the air force, they might want to make do with what they have now.
Of course if the Russian are only to sell their 117 engine, then perhaps that might have interest the Chinese more, rather than selling the entire aircraft package, which somehow I felt the sales might not go through.
Note that time is on the Chinese side this time round, they have the resources and funding needed to get the WS-15 up and running, and although we see lots of conflicts from the Chinese side to their surrounding countries, but seriously, do you need a super flanker to counter threats posed from the Phillipines and Vietnam? Of course one could argue, what about Japan? Well, unless US intervene, I am not seeing an armed conflict that likely. Plus when it come to small armed conflict in that region, wouldn't an aircraft carrier with J-15/ Su-33 make more sense?
So I simply cannot see where the Su-35 can fit into China's doctrine other than getting the engines... which obviously the Russian are not going to sell.
Of course you could also argue about the reliability issues of China's engines, but... well... the Russian's older (the key word is older) engine are not exactly that rosy too... and the old AF-31 had very short lifespan. I am expecting the Chinese one to fare a bit better, not sure though.
And... Su-35 is not exactly a cheap aircraft, I believe it cost around the same as the Euro fighter, so... if any country that couldn't afford the Euro fighter, I don't believe they can afford the Su-35... thus it came back to square one... those that wanted, might not be able to afford, those who can afford, might not want.
And look at it this way, the Russian, who should be getting most of this aircraft is only going to get around 90 or more by 2020, at this year end, they are getting 40+, thus we have to also look into the manufacturing limits and restriction for this aircraft. If any country was to order it in bulk and only to be getting their aircraft in a decade or two, I don't think the countries would be very interested, especially when the Stealth aircraft is going to be induced around 2018, which is only another 6 years away.
So, you would not just look at how good an aircraft is going to be... but you need to look at the following too,
1) manufacturing capability of the host country (Russia), can they churn out enough to fill the order and how soon can the aircraft be delivered, if the wait is too long... country like China and India would not want it because their own aircrafts are good enough for them.
2) Logistic of the country that is going to buy the aircraft... in this case - China. China already had the Su-27/Su-30mkk/ J-11/ J-11B and J-10 (not to mention heaps of J-8, J-7 and JH-7, etc) adding another aircraft type in is abit of a nightmare.
3) Can Su-35 or any aircraft handle or be compatible to the buying country's weaponry? In our case with China... the answer is no. Su-35 is not compatible with the Chinese missiles and weapons. So China needed to buy another bulk of missiles from Russia and that is additional cost when their own is fully capable to doing what they are designed to do.
4) Current legistration within a country... well... there is this saying, "We buy the weapon not because it is the best out there, but it is the most politically correct one". China's current legistration favour domestic innovation, and that can be seen by the amount of money pumped in into different defence projects in Army, Navy, Air force and missile forces.
5) Current situation around the country that is going to buy the Su-35. Well... China is fully capable of defending themselves at the present and also defending their offshore assets. If really the country needed urgently... is carrier base fighters the like of J-15/ Su-33 rather than land base Su-35.
