China demographics thread.

luminary

Senior Member
Registered Member
Tbh I feel like "Only Child Syndrome" might be a big contributor to current trends:
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South China Morning Post

The Hunan People’s Congress warned that most cities in the province had failed to urgently address their declining birth rates, with a survey finding that only four out of 14 had rolled out detailed plans to boost births by the end of April – against a previous deadline of end-2022.
Despite a slew of pronatalist incentives and slogans being rolled out across the country to encourage births, demographic experts have conceded that immediate effects are unlikely, suggesting China should accept and adapt to the new norm.

According to the Hunan report, many officials believe no results or achievements in family planning can be seen in the short-term, leading to a lack of motivation on the issue.

The report also found that governments in some big cities have slacked off on the effort, because they have no trouble attracting people to live there.
 

eprash

Junior Member
Registered Member
Might be non PC but does modern dating and working culture has any effect? Arab countries that has strong cultural barriers and laws regarding premarital affairs and low women workplace participation has good replacement numbers, Does Madonna whore complex plays a role?
 

sndef888

Captain
Registered Member
The biggest problem is urbanisation.

It's crazy how nobody realises that urbanisation has one of the highest correlations to dropping fertility rates, instead of some other stupid social reasons / pc culture / feminism / tuition / stress / cost of living

Nobody is going to want to make babies in a crowded city full of unfamiliar faces, where they live in an apartment and take public transport to work everyday and only have 4 hours of rest on weekdays. Cities are just stressful and insecure places to live, and it's just not in the human psyche to give birth in such places, no matter whether it's affordable or not.

The way to increase birth rate is to make rural areas / small-medium town areas nice and relaxing places to live, with close neighbourly/familial ties, activities/entertainment/spiritual areas for young people and adults, and cheap landed houses in quiet neighbourhoods. These types of families have no issues giving birth to 5-6 children because they feel secure and they know life won't change much in the next 20 years that will suddenly turn their lives upside down. Good examples are Malay rural houses and towns in Malaysia.

Look at rural China, it's either a dead village with only a couple old people and outdoor toilets (you could drive around in the day and not see another human for hours), or it's a town full of monotonous apartment blocks that look no different from a Shenzhen suburb. There is just no "idyllic yet lively medium sized town" that young adults who don't want to join the rat race can settle down and have many babies.
 
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jx191

Just Hatched
Registered Member
Not really sure how effective this will be in China, since the income tax isn't particularly high to begin with. Even then, the Childcare cost and additional housing need for 4 extra children should outweigh any gains from income tax exemption. I believe ultimately people choosing not to have children is largely a cultural issue, a side effect of having a highly educated population that don't want to waste years of education only to throw it all away raising children.
I think childcare services are a huge part of the demographic problem/solution that isn't talked about enough.

People in East Asia work a lot, and raising children is extremely expensive in China and South Korea. One of the reasons why people decide not to have children is due to the time it would take away from them, and the negative impact on their careers.

Cheap, available childcare services would:
1) Lower the overall cost of having children.
2) Allow parents to continue their careers.
3) Reduce the overall burden on parents.
 

BoraTas

Captain
Registered Member
The biggest problem is urbanisation.

It's crazy how nobody realises that urbanisation has one of the highest correlations to dropping fertility rates, instead of some other stupid social reasons / pc culture / feminism / tuition / stress / cost of living

Nobody is going to want to make babies in a crowded city full of unfamiliar faces, where they live in an apartment and take public transport to work everyday and only have 4 hours of rest on weekdays. Cities are just stressful and insecure places to live, and it's just not in the human psyche to give birth in such places, no matter whether it's affordable or not.

The way to increase birth rate is to make rural areas / small-medium town areas nice and relaxing places to live, with close neighbourly/familial ties, activities/entertainment/spiritual areas for young people and adults, and cheap landed houses in quiet neighbourhoods. These types of families have no issues giving birth to 5-6 children because they feel secure and they know life won't change much in the next 20 years that will suddenly turn their lives upside down. Good examples are Malay rural houses and towns in Malaysia.

Look at rural China, it's either a dead village with only a couple old people and outdoor toilets (you could drive around in the day and not see another human for hours), or it's a town full of monotonous apartment blocks that look no different from a Shenzhen suburb. There is just no "idyllic yet lively medium sized town" that young adults who don't want to join the rat race can settle down and have many babies.
Childbearing and upbringing will have to be industrialized and centralized. Education already went through that process. We call that school.
The range of activities available to modern people and modern economic activities disincentivize raising a child. Europe has many beautiful small towns yet its birth rates are bad too.
 

eprash

Junior Member
Registered Member
Childbearing and upbringing will have to be industrialized and centralized. Education already went through that process. We call that school.
The range of activities available to modern people and modern economic activities disincentivize raising a child. Europe has many beautiful small towns yet its birth rates are bad too.
Why not encourage surrogacy, But housing costs should be brought down first ideally it should be run by the state something like China Railway or State Grid, If having children won't affect career more women would be open to it
 

BoraTas

Captain
Registered Member
Why not encourage surrogacy, But housing costs should be brought down first ideally it should be run by the state something like China Railway or State Grid, If having children won't affect career more women would be open to it
I am more in favor of this

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