China demographics thread.

[mossen]

If we see massive jobs displacement by AI in 15-20 years time, the falling birth rate might even be considered a boon for China. I've long been skeptical of "automation will displace jobs" narratives, but I think a supercharged AI might be different. At first, it will increase productivity until it can replace people outright.

It's also worth pointing out that China up until ~2040 will see a rising number of STEM graduates. So even if birth rates have collapsed, China will have the demographic momentum up until 2040 to increase innovation due to very large STEM cohorts who were born prior to the Covid collapse.

By contrast, I am not sure I'd want to be in the shoes of a country like Pakistan or Nigeria which have very high birthrates on top of a high population. These countries already teeter on the brink and large-scale jobs displacement by AI in the late 2030s and beyond for even petty service sector jobs would be cataclysmic for them.

 

[Coalescence]

If we see massive jobs displacement by AI in 15-20 years time, the falling birth rate might even be considered a boon for China. I've long been skeptical of "automation will displace jobs" narratives, but I think a supercharged AI might be different. At first, it will increase productivity until it can replace people outright.

It's also worth pointing out that China up until ~2040 will see a rising number of STEM graduates. So even if birth rates have collapsed, China will have the demographic momentum up until 2040 to increase innovation due to very large STEM cohorts who were born prior to the Covid collapse.

By contrast, I am not sure I'd want to be in the shoes of a country like Pakistan or Nigeria which have very high birthrates on top of a high population. These countries already teeter on the brink and large-scale jobs displacement by AI in the late 2030s and beyond for even petty service sector jobs would be cataclysmic for them.

Not only is the recent development in AI making complete automation more possible, the average cost for industrial robots have declined significantly compared to back in 1995 and is projected to become even cheaper in the future.

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However even if automation could replace all the jobs in the future, China should still look for ways to foster a pro-natal environment and raise the TFR to a level that would stabilize the demographics in the long run.

 

[KYli]

It is a start. More need to be done.

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[gelgoog]

Just build low cost housing. The main reason people do not start families is because they lack the means to do so.
Unfortunately local governments in China are still feeding themselves on overpriced land sales.

Qin experienced massive population growth for several generations by making couples get married at a younger age, and granting them land plots they could work and built a house on for free. That is the solution, not IVF.

 

[Jiang ZeminFanboy]

Just build low cost housing. The main reason people do not start families is because they lack the means to do so.
Unfortunately local governments in China are still feeding themselves on overpriced land sales.

Qin experienced massive population growth for several generations by making couples get married at a younger age, and granting them land plots they could work and built a house on for free. That is the solution, not IVF.

I am not sure that cheap housing is the solution in the third decade of 21st century, maybe it can raise TFR e.g. From 1.1 to 1.3, but certainly not to the replacement level.
Singapore housing system is what could be possibly done in China, so cheap housing for families, however still births are abysmal in Singapore.

 

[luminary]

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SixthTone

The article cites Japan as a country where robots are widely used. It’s not true. A small percentage of facilities are using robots and they’re not helping. Arguably make things worse as the staff has to spend time taking care of the machines instead of residents. Which may offer the “solution” of hiring more low paid robot care workers at the expense of fewer health care workers.

An article from earlier this year describing the Japanese experience.

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The author has also written a book about his research and he talked about it on the Tech Won’t Save Us podcast a few months ago.

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[BlackWindMnt]

Just build low cost housing. The main reason people do not start families is because they lack the means to do so.
Unfortunately local governments in China are still feeding themselves on overpriced land sales.

Qin experienced massive population growth for several generations by making couples get married at a younger age, and granting them land plots they could work and built a house on for free. That is the solution, not IVF.

From what i have heard Chinese people officially only have 1 day free a week? So 6 days of work and 1 day off.
With how intense working life can be i think having only 1 day free a week might also be a factor.

Unless i misread that?

 

[Biscuits]

From what i have heard Chinese people officially only have 1 day free a week? So 6 days of work and 1 day off.
With how intense working life can be i think having only 1 day free a week might also be a factor.

Unless i misread that?

A work week can maximally be 40 hours.

Afaik it's the standard for other developed economies.

It's more that it costs more to raise children in China compared to many other places, along with a societal outlook which emphasizes personal growth rather than familial responsibility.

 

[BlackWindMnt]

A work week can maximally be 40 hours.

Afaik it's the standard for other developed economies.

It's more that it costs more to raise children in China compared to many other places, along with a societal outlook which emphasizes personal growth rather than familial responsibility.

aah okey maybe the information i read was outdated. 40 hours has indeed been the standard in most developed economies some even go to 32~36 hours.

 

[Chevalier]

A work week can maximally be 40 hours.

Afaik it's the standard for other developed economies.

It's more that it costs more to raise children in China compared to many other places, along with a societal outlook which emphasizes personal growth rather than familial responsibility.

Given automation and AI, a lot of developed industrial economies like Germany are already mooting the idea of a 4 day workweek.