China demographics thread.

[Eventine]

Point me to the official sources.

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Based on multiple sources of data released by Chinese government institutions.

The TFR of 1.3 in 2020 was widely reported, and based on news releases from the 2020 census; the numbers used to calculate this TFR were never released to the public because the Chinese government stopped publishing the data, which you can interpret however you want, but my personal guess is because it reflects poorly on recent, failed efforts to boost fertility.

 

[coolgod]

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Based on multiple sources of data released by Chinese government institutions.

Methods​

By using the census data from 1982 to 2010, and the 1% population sample survey data from 1995 to 2015, we systematically analyzed China’s fertility and its trends since the 1980s using period fertility measures, adjusted period fertility measures, cohort fertility measures, and indirect estimation methods

Results​

The results show that marriage postponement significantly affects the TFR decline. Even after eliminating the tempo and parity structure effect, the adjusted TFR has fallen below 1.5, and the first-order fertility rate dropped to 0.9 in 2015. The CFR for women aged 45–49 declined from 5.37 in 1982 to 1.62 in 2015 mainly because of a decrease in fourth and higher-order births from 1982 to 1990, a decrease in second and third births from 1990 to 2000, and a decrease in second births from 2000 to 2015. Indirect estimation methods yielded a TFR in the range of 1.5–1.6 for the period 2000–2010 and an average TFR of 1.49 for the period 2011–2020.

This study says nothing about the China's TFR post 2020. It is extrapolating from 2015 data, which we already have as posted earlier by tokenanalyst.

 

[Eventine]

This study says nothing about the China's TFR post 2020. It is extrapolating from 2015 data, which we already have as posted earlier by tokenanalyst.

Read the rest of the paper. They acknowledged the absence of data for the 2020 census (because the data stopped being published) but indicated that the Chinese government officially reported a TFR of 1.3. Analysts are basing their conclusions on official sources, it's just you won't be able to calculate the TFR yourself because the raw data is not released.

 

[KYli]

A sharp drop in TFR after 2017 is due to the fact that people rushed to have a second child after the government officially allowed 2 child nationally.

Another sharp drop in 2020 is more or less due to the pandemic. Most marriages had been postponed so people have delayed having child afterward. I do believe an increase of marriage during the later half of this year is quite possible as pandemic is finally out of the picture.

In addition, people need to understand that more and more Chinese women are delaying of getting marriage and having child into 30s rather than 20s. This pattern has been increased sharply over last few years and would cause a distorted picture of marriage and birth in the next few years.

I do think the decrease of births is a serious problem that requires the central government to enact more pro-births policies to stabilize and increase births. However, the real concern of birth is after the 90s generation entered their final years of giving births which means the central government only has around 10 to 15 years to tackle the low birth rate issue before the crisis hits them and no normal policy can reverse the trend.

 

[coolgod]

Read the rest of the paper. They acknowledged the absence of data for the 2020 census (because the data stopped being published) but indicated that the Chinese government officially reported a TFR of 1.3. Analysts are basing their conclusions on official sources, it's just you won't be able to calculate the TFR yourself because the raw data is not released.

The 2010 and 2020 censuses yielded TFRs of 1.18 and 1.30, respectively [

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,

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].

• [2]. Tabulation on the 2010 Population Census of the People’s Republic of China. Population Census Office under the State Council and Department of Population Statistics, State Statistics Bureau, People’s Republic of China. China Statistics Press, Beijing. 2012 (in Chinese).

• [3]. Tabulation on the 2000 Population Census of the People’s Republic of China. Population Census Office under the State Council and Department of Population Statistics, State Statistics Bureau, People’s Republic of China. China Statistics Press, Beijing. 2002 (in Chinese).

Yes, a 2002 Stats book predicted the 2020 census result. The 2020 is literally a typo, or this article is really low quality and no one checked the sources.

 

[Eventine]

Yes a 2002 Stats book predicted the 2020 census result. The 2020 is literally a typo, or this article is really low quality and no one checked the sources.

Likely a typo, but the numbers are confirmed by other sources, e.g.

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Estimates were “all over the place,” Cai says. There is general agreement that fertility dropped below 2.1, the rate at which a population remains stable, in the early 1990s. In a 2013 study in Population and Development Review, Cai figured the total fertility rate in 2010 was 1.5 or lower. Now, the statistics bureau estimates it at 1.3 in 2020. And unlike the United States and Europe, China has next to no immigration to offset low fertility.

 

[coolgod]

Likely a typo, but the numbers are confirmed by other sources, e.g.

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Another dubious article with no proper sources on the 1.3 TFR, both of which had western authors. I'm sorry but 公知 have to try harder to earn their pay on this thread now.

 

[Eventine]

Another dubious article with no proper sources on the 1.3 TFR, both of which had western authors. You gotta try harder to earn a piece of that propaganda money.

There is no proper source because the data was never released. But Chinese press releases gave the same numbers.

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The number of newborns in China in 2020 was down from 14.65 million in 2019, and China’s total fertility rate of women of childbearing age was 1.3, a relatively low level, according to the results of the seventh national population census released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday.

Stop accusing everything you disagree with as propaganda; just because the data isn't entirely available (which is not surprising given how politically charged this information is) doesn't mean people are talking out of their ***.

 

[coolgod]

There is no proper source because the data was never released. But Chinese press releases gave the same numbers.

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Stop accusing everything you disagree with as propaganda; just because the data isn't entirely available (which is not surprising given how politically charged this information is) doesn't mean people are talking out of their ***.

Well I forced you to post a valid source didn't I? Instead of low quality BS articles you actually gave a GlobalTime article which satisfies my credibility criteria. Like I previously mentioned, the data required to calculate the fertility rates are supposedly in 《中国人口和就业统计年鉴—2021》, without that data we can't verify any fertility rate claims in the 2020s.

 

[gadgetcool5]

Japan to push child care, labor reforms to stem falling birthrate​

Kishida is set to unveil a final version of his child care policy at a news conference on June 13.

The labor reforms will allow workers to opt for a more flexible work style such as three days off each week, the sources, who sought anonymity because they are not authorized to speak to media, told Reuters.

Further regulation to be adopted in fiscal 2024 will put a uniform cap on overtime. The new plan also aims for those who engage in care or undergo fertility treatment to hold down jobs.

The child allowance plan calls for abolition of income limits on recipients, while clarifying that such allowances are available until a deadline of March 31 subsequent to attaining the age of 18, up from 15 now.

The draft plan seeks to further rectify long working hours so that both parents can share household chores without throwing an unfair burden on mothers.

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Japan taking action. This will, of course, be insufficient, but at least they're finally doing something. The big caveat for this is that they need to get it funded, and whether there is public support for it. Given Japan's record of doing things, I wouldn't be surprised if this never materializes due to lack of funding, while they divert all their money to the military to fight China.