Wrong data, 2021 China TFR was 1.15 posted here multiply times from official Chinese sources like China NBS.
China demographics thread.
- Thread starter gadgetcool5
- Start date
Landgeist is non an official source, enter to the BoS and find the number.
This is the data from the World Bank, they never mention that they source the NBS directly, they said national offices but pufff, it looks they took data from different sources and extrapolated the number.
AND think it makes no sense at all, like what happened in 2017 to have so a sharp drop like that, I am guessing that everything is wrong before 2017 or everything is wrong after 2017, it could be that the pandemic make do a correct population Census difficult.
Very good point, I came across a few more doomposts "news" on Chinese internet which cite the 1.15 Total Fertility Rate, which actually wasn't given by Chinese govt. I have not come across any announcements by chinese govt which actually gave a total fertility rate in the last few years. The national stats database only make TFR public for up to 2015.
To the concern trolls on this thread: please try harder to be credible or else that $500 Million dollar budget is going to OpenAI instead. The total fertility rate might be in《中国人口和就业统计年鉴—2021》, please purchase a copy and show proof of the relevant data to further advance your argument.
This is a shorter database which contains crude birth rates, which by itself cannot be used to calculate the TFR.
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It because the TFR is calculated by the sum of fertility rates of child bearing females from ages 15-49.
Even then because the lockdowns in China make censing difficult, so data that should be collected from hospitals, clinics or door to door was difficult.
@tokenanalyst makes a very good point. What happened in 2017 to cause such a sharp drop? I thought it would be way more gradual. It seems to be real from what chinese officials are saying.
Supposedly the fertility/birth rate breakdown by 5 yr age categories was included in the book version of 中国人口和就业统计年鉴—2021?
Since the online database of 中国人口和就业统计年鉴—2021 doesn't contain that data, we have no way of verifying these fertility rate estimates given by concern trolls currently.
Well have seem this number more from the media rather than "officials".
But it could be someone is measuring wrong, or the data is unreliable before 2017 or is unreliable after 2017. People attitudes don't change overnight. I know the world bank is extrapolating that number like really bad.
If is "real" then the two only explanations I have could be the pandemic lockdowns, millions of migrants workers living in factories away from their wives and girlfriends, but that would mean that the birth rate could rebound back to more normal levels this year and the next coming years. The second explination is Aliens. Apart from that it make no sense at all.