China demographics thread.

[Eventine]

Well I forced you to post a valid source didn't I? Instead of low quality BS articles you actually gave a GlobalTime article which satisfies my credibility criteria. Like I previously mentioned, the data required to calculate the fertility rates are supposedly in 《中国人口和就业统计年鉴—2021》, without that data we can't verify any fertility rate data in the 2020s.

The problem is you and token are treating this as Western propaganda while it is a number that is widely reported within China itself. I thought that was common knowledge; so I chose to cite an academic article because those tend to be better referenced and have more analysis than typical news articles.

Nonetheless, if you want to know the real source of the 2020 census information, it's Ning Jizhe, the director of the National Bureau of Statistics. He gave the number in a reporters interview that happened with the 2020 census summary release. You can find a transcript of the interview here:

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Red Star News:

My question is, what changes have occurred in the fertility rate of women and number of births in China since the comprehensive two-child policy was adopted? Is the current lack of fertility willingness among the population leading to an almost alarming low fertility rate? Will China adjust its population policies, especially family planning policies, based on the findings of the census?

Ning Jizhe:

I will take these questions. People are concerned about fertility issues and we have gained a lot of information in this regard through the census. I must first note that the two-child policy has achieved positive results and the seventh national census has found the following characteristics for new births.

First, the number of new births has been large. New births increased significantly in 2016 and 2017 to over 18 million and 17 million, respectively. This was up by more than two million and one million respectively in comparison with the number before the two-child policy was adopted. Although the number has fallen since 2018, it still reached 12 million in 2020, according to the preliminary findings of the census.

Second, the proportion of second children was high. Among the newborns between 2014 and 2017, the proportion of second children rose markedly from around 30% [M1] in 2013 to around 50% in 2017. Although the proportion has since declined, it has remained above 40%. Adjustments in the fertility policy have increased the number of newborn second children by over 10 million.

Third, the fertility rate has declined. China's total fertility rate was 1.3 in 2020, which was a low level, according to the census. This was largely caused by a continuous fall in the number of women of childbearing age and a gradual wearing-off of the effect of the two-child policy. In 2020, the COVID-19 epidemic, which added uncertainties to life and worries about in-hospital childbearing, further dampened people's willingness to have children. We should come to realize that the low fertility level is also a result of economic and social development. It is not only affected by policy factors but also by economic, social and cultural factors with impact from the latter gradually gaining. In addition, we must be aware that with economic and social development, especially when industrialization and modernization have changed people's views on birth, a low fertility rate is a common problem in most developed countries and will also become a practical issue for China.

There is a reason this data is sensitive. The Chinese government has made it a goal to raise China's fertility rates, so anything that reflects badly on that is kept out of public hands. However, press releases are okay because they can be controlled and used to motivate policy change (which, in this case, was the three-child policy). This isn't Western propaganda, it's just common knowledge regarding how Chinese politics work.

 

[tokenanalyst]

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Based on multiple sources of data released by Chinese government institutions.

The TFR of 1.3 in 2020 was widely reported, and based on news releases from the 2020 census; the numbers used to calculate this TFR were never released to the public because the Chinese government stopped publishing the data, which you can interpret however you want, but my personal guess is because it reflects poorly on recent, failed efforts to boost fertility.

A sudden drop from 1.8 in just 3 years when the trend was rising? common man use logic.
That study do a lot of extrapolations, the data probably dont come from official goverment sources but other means and then they extrapolate to get their numbers the want.

Either way I still think with the rise of pro-natalist polices couple with nationalism across the world children will come at the expense of women and other groups. At first will be giving money and making easier for couples to have children but at the end will be taxing the childless to pay the people who have children, denying goverment housing loans, careers opportunities and even shaming. As country after country hit the panic button dark times ahead.

nother sharp drop in 2020 is more or less due to the pandemic. Most marriages had been postponed so people have delayed having child afterward. I do believe an increase of marriage during the later half of this year is quite possible as pandemic is finally out of the picture.

Makes sense.

 

[coolgod]

The problem is you and token are treating this as Western propaganda while it is a number that is widely reported within China itself. I thought that was common knowledge; so I chose to cite an academic article because those tend to be better referenced and have more analysis than typical news articles.

Nonetheless, if you want to know the real source of the 2020 census information, it's Ning Jizhe, the director of the National Bureau of Statistics. He gave the number in a reporters interview that happened with the 2020 census summary release. You can find a transcript of the interview here:

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There is a reason this was not advertised widely in the data release - it is a politically sensitive topic since it indicates the general failure of the fertility policy. The Chinese government has made it a goal to raise China's fertility rates since 2019, so anything that reflects badly on that goal is considered sensitive. This isn't Western propaganda, it's just common knowledge regarding how Chinese politics work.

The first two published academic article were terrible in supporting your 1.3 TFR claim. Please remember just because something is published in a journal, doesn't make it credible. Your last two sources were much more credible in supporting your 1.3 TFR claim.

I'm not saying China doesn't have a low fertility rate, nor am I claiming you are spreading western propaganda. I am however claiming there are many posters on this thread who are concern trolling with doom posts. Like this one for example

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China's one child birth rate has dropped to 0.5

 

[Eventine]

The first two published academic article were terrible in supporting your 1.3 TFR claim. Please remember just because something is published in a journal, doesn't make it credible. Your last two sources were much more credible in supporting your 1.3 TFR claim.

I'm not saying China doesn't have a low fertility rate, nor am I claiming you are spreading western propaganda. I am however claiming there are many posters on this thread who are concern trolling with doom posts. Like this one for example

Look, I'm not going to deny that there is a lot of doom posting and Western propaganda in regards to Chinese demographics, because I deal with those sorts of claims every day in other forums. But, similar to your argument about not trusting academic sources just because they're academic (which I agree with), we also shouldn't deny a problem just because the West has weaponized it.

To me, we need to establish a common understanding around the challenges faced by China in regards to demographics, and not spend so much time arguing over whether there even is a problem. The Chinese government itself has acknowledged the problem, and they have the best insight of all into Chinese demographics. We should trust that recent policy changes like the two-child policy, three-child policy, etc. are motivated by data, even if we don't have access to that data.

 

[Dark Father]

What actions did the Chinese government take in regard with the catastrophic demographic collapse we have witnessed the past few years and which will only worsen this year and with years to come? I have noticed nothing from the centre. Not even a word let alone action. We will need Chinese panda breeding centers the way its going. Ultra infertile in the 21st century and no care or fuck is given.

 

[tokenanalyst]

What actions did the Chinese government take in regard with the catastrophic demographic collapse we have witnessed the past few years

As far as i checked there still 1.4 BILLION Chinese in this planet, even with the pandemic raging that have killed probably in between 200k-400k, even in the worst case scenario that will probably never happen because trends change with time there will still be 1 BILLION Chinese in 2100.

 

[BoraTas]

What actions did the Chinese government take in regard with the catastrophic demographic collapse we have witnessed the past few years and which will only worsen this year and with years to come? I have noticed nothing from the centre. Not even a word let alone action. We will need Chinese panda breeding centers the way its going. Ultra infertile in the 21st century and no care or fuck is given.

Stop concern posting

 

[Michael90]

I completely disagree !!

It is western influence and feminism !!

See my other previous posts !!

Are you superboy from PDF who used to spam threads all over the place? From what I can see you sound alike.

 

[Overbom]

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China’s New Marriages Fall to 37-Year Low, Pressuring Population​

(Bloomberg) -- China’s new marriages dropped to an almost 40-year low in 2022, increasing the likelihood that the population of the world’s second-largest economy will continue to fall.

About 6.8 million couples registered marriages in China last year, down 11% from 2021 and the lowest number since 1985, when available government data begins. The data shows the number of unions peaked in 2013 and has since rapidly declined.

China’s economy faces pressure as people grow older and births fall. The drop in marriages is likely attributable to a decline in the number of young people, as well as couples choosing to get married later, changing attitudes toward marriage, and the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.

In 2021, the number of people age 20-34 fell below 300 million for the first time since the mid-1980s, and there were more than 10 million more men than women in that age cohort, according to data from the United Nations. That gender imbalance could make it even harder to get married, especially as same-sex marriage isn’t legal in China.

 

[gadgetcool5]

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China’s New Marriages Fall to 37-Year Low, Pressuring Population​

This is an acceleration of decline. I was expecting 7.1 million marriages for 2022 based on the % decline from 2020 to 2021.