China demographics thread.

[Deleted member 15887]

Do you think China can achieve a per capita GDP of $30,000 US by 2035? Or will the pop decline inhibit the economy?

It's almost guaranteed to achieve that level, because it's not so much that population decline/aging causes economic issues for a country so much as it is the other way around; i.e. economic issues causes declining population/accelerating aging. This is precisely what happened in Japan.

This is Japan's population pyramid in 1985:

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. While narrowing at the bottom, you will notice how the 25-year generation gap, whereby people aged 35-39 almost completely replaced themselves with their children aged 10-14. Similarly, people aged 0-4 almost completely replaces the 25-29 age group. This is still while Japan was riding its economic boom.

Move the dial to 1995:

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This is where Japan's demographic problems started to begin. 5 years into Japan's "lost decade", and it is clear people are not having enough babies. Look at the 0-4 age group; it clearly isn't close to replacing their parents' (age 25-29) age group, despite 10 years prior with the trend still being that succeeding generations almost completely replace their parents' age group. So Japan's economic struggles isn't so much caused by its aging challenges so much as it is the other way around: economic issues (such as recessions, stagnations) itself causes birth rate to decline, which thus exacerbates aging. Japan's inability to lift itself from 30 years of stagnation has less to do with aging, and a lot more to do with structural economic factors isolated from demographics.

This contrasts with Korea:

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Despite having a population pyramid far worse than Japan (let alone China), Korea still manages 2-3% growth every year, demonstrating how demographic issues is mostly isolated from economics. Despite this, Korea's shrinking births is still to some extent caused by economic issues; this is the population pyramid for Korea in 1996:

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One year later, the 1997 Asian financial crisis struck hard, especially on Korea. Moving the dial forward:

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, you can see how the financial crisis ultimately had a lingering effect on the Korean economy, and ultimately, on birth rates. Korea's growth rates today, while high, are likely part of the economic adjustment and restructuring after the 1997 economic crisis that ultimately had a huge impact on birth rates long-term.

 

[steel21]

Last time I checked, the PBOC dealt with money, not people. Taking quotes from irrelevant agencies and passing them off as some kind of authority is a typical tactic of western propaganda.

What's really funny about you is that you think these articles from the West are some kind of breaking news. If you had more understanding about China, you'd realize that the Chinese government keeps track of all kinds of indicators in the country. Whatever you learn about in the public domain, they would have known about it for years.

The Chinese government didn't just relax the family planning policy to two kids. They went through successive revisions over the 4 decades since the FPP was first implemented. First they allowed rural families to have a second child if their first was a girl. Then they allowed parents who were only children to have two kids. Then finally they allowed everyone to have two kids. This progress shows that the decision makers in the central government are well aware of China's demographic trend, and are taking action when they deem appropriate.

Talks of China's impending demographic doom has been around since Gordon Chang first published his book, and has been about as accurate as Gordon's predictions.

Yup, the pervasiveness of this imminent collapse narrative is ultimately what compels US to go all out being Tonya Harding, believing that if somehow they can mutter around for another 10 years, then the thrones is their for another century.

If they had a better understanding of the world, they would realize that the competition is here to stay, and they had better buckle up, get on a hardcore gym routine and lean protein diet.

Instead: its pass the Coke and burger, the Chinese will wither away in 10 years.



The only people that the FT article is fooling are the American policy makers. If China is running out of time to revise its demographic, then we passed the window of opportunity to turn this bitch around like 20 years ago. We are on borrowed time.

Once America is out of the picture, the Chinese will sort out 996 and a whole host of issues sequentially or concurrently.

 

[steel21]

It's almost guaranteed to achieve that level, because it's not so much that population decline/aging causes economic issues for a country so much as it is the other way around; i.e. economic issues causes declining population/accelerating aging. This is precisely what happened in Japan.

This is Japan's population pyramid in 1985:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

. While narrowing at the bottom, you will notice how the 25-year generation gap, whereby people aged 35-39 almost completely replaced themselves with their children aged 10-14. Similarly, people aged 0-4 almost completely replaces the 25-29 age group. This is still while Japan was riding its eocnomic boom.

Move the dial to 1995:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

This is where Japan's demographic problems started to begin. 5 years into Japan's "lost decade", and it is clear people are not having enough babies. Look at the 0-4 age group; it clearly isn't close to replacing their parents' (age 25-29) age group, despite 10 years prior with the trend still being that succeeding generations almost completely replace their parents' age group. So Japan's economic struggles isn't so much caused by its aging challenges so much as it is the other way around: economic issues (such as recessions, stagnations) itself causes birth rate to decline, which thus exacerbates aging. Japan's inability to lift itself from 30 years of stagnation has less to do with aging, and a lot more to do with structural economic factors isolated from demographics.

This contrasts with Korea:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Despite having a population pyramid far worse than Japan (let alone China), Korea still manages 2-3% growth every year, demonstrating how demographic issues is mostly isolated from economics. Despite this, Korea's shrinking births is still to some extent caused by economic issues; this is the population pyramid for Korea in 1996:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

One year later, the 1997 Asian financial crisis struck hard, especially on Korea. Moving the dial forward:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

, you can see how the financial crisis ultimately had a lingering effect on the Korean economy, and ultimately, on birth rates. Korea's growth rates today, while high, are likely part of the economic adjustment and restructuring after the 1997 economic crisis that ultimately had a huge impact on birth rates long-term.

Yup.

A positive outlook and burgeoning economy is the foundation of population growth. Its the same way in nature, when the summer is lean, and the winter come early, some species will skip on ovulation.

996 killing the mood? Shit, it only take 5 mins to get pregnant. You know what would suck? If you worked your ass off under 996, clawed your way into middle class and no one to cement your legacy.

Most of the Asian countries were working their asses off in the 1980s and 1990s, yet they all manage to increase in population. Korea, had a 5.5 day work week in the early 2000s.

 

[Deleted member 15887]

The problem is that at this stage rolling back one child policy is not enough. When they ended it in 2015 or 2016 most of the mothers giving birth were 30/40 years old and having a second child. The millennials are uninterested in having children. Just look at Japan and South Korea. Unless they actively encourage child births, the trend won’t turn around.

If it gets desperate enough, the party will absolutely do whatever it takes to turn the trend around, be it heavy-handed social engineering and natalist childbirth policies. My fear is that generally, when the party comes to terms that there is a problem, they generally overreact with the solution, almost too successfully sometimes to the point it creates new unforeseen imbalances. Feminists may have a much more difficult time in the coming years as the party engages in muscular social engineering to encourage 2-3 children to stave off a decline if it turns out to be true. Womens' rights and workplace participation may be put in the backburner as pressure from the government and companies to pushes women back into the home in order to have more children. The biggest fear if the government pursues heavy-handed natalism is, obviously, a regression in the progress in gender equality that China was able to make over the past 70 years.

 

[solarz]

Let's hope! Also, do you guys know if China is taking any substantial step in increasing automation? Any articles I can read up?

 

[voyager1]

If it gets desperate enough, the party will absolutely do whatever it takes to turn the trend around, be it heavy-handed social engineering and natalist childbirth policies. My fear is that generally, when the party comes to terms that there is a problem, they generally overreact with the solution, quite successfully sometimes to the point it creates new unforeseen imbalances. Feminists may have a much more difficult time in the coming years as the party engages in muscular social engineering to encourage 2-3 children to stave off a decline if it turns out to be true. Womens' rights and workplace participation may be put in the backburner as pressure from the government and companies to pushes women back into the home in order to have more children. The biggest fear if the government pursues heavy-handed natalism is, obviously, a regression in the progress in gender equality that China was able to make over the past 70 years.

Good post. This is valid concern to have.

I suppose they will take it by stages. They will surely fire up the propaganda machine to promote child birth. If after 3 years this hasn't produced satisfactory results they might increase their measures even more

 

[steel21]

Good post. This is valid concern to have.

I suppose they will take it by stages. They will surely fire up the propaganda machine to promote child birth. If after 3 years this hasn't produced satisfactory results they might increase their measures even more

If there is something the Chinese don't lack, its data.

Shit, they can see all kinds of data, from the amount of lubricant being purchased to how many diapers are being bought (actually no, the Chinese ween their kids off diapers extra early, like by age 2. Shit they try to beat the clock on everything!).

If there is one thing they've learned, it is to implement policy in increments, and have a alternative/iterative implementation.

You can't great leap forward anything.

 

[solarz]

If it gets desperate enough, the party will absolutely do whatever it takes to turn the trend around, be it heavy-handed social engineering and natalist childbirth policies. My fear is that generally, when the party comes to terms that there is a problem, they generally overreact with the solution, quite successfully sometimes to the point it creates new unforeseen imbalances. Feminists may have a much more difficult time in the coming years as the party engages in muscular social engineering to encourage 2-3 children to stave off a decline if it turns out to be true. Womens' rights and workplace participation may be put in the backburner as pressure from the government and companies to pushes women back into the home in order to have more children. The biggest fear if the government pursues heavy-handed natalism is, obviously, a regression in the progress in gender equality that China was able to make over the past 70 years.

China has a mandated maternity leave of 98 days.

If the government really wanted to encourage people to have more kids, the easiest thing to do would be to increase that length. Yet, they haven't, which shows that encouraging child birth is not really high on their priority.

 

[voyager1]

If there is something the Chinese don't lack, its data.

Shit, they can see all kinds of data, from the amount of lubricant being purchased to how many diapers are being bought (actually no, the Chinese ween their kids off diapers extra early, like by age 2. Shit they try to beat the clock on everything!).

If there is one thing they've learned, it is to implement policy in increments, and have a alternative/iterative implementation.

You can't great leap forward anything.

Lol I can just hear the buzzwords from the local govs now

"Increase the development level of 5G enabled strategic industries to increase the IoT child birth products. We will comprehensively ensure the security and interests of the state and its people for high level of development, we will also build new science parks to further explore opportunities for increasing the quality and quantity of the products while following the Central Commision instructions with comrade Xi at the core" hahaha

 

[BrightFuture]

China has a mandated maternity leave of 98 days.

If the government really wanted to encourage people to have more kids, the easiest thing to do would be to increase that length. Yet, they haven't, which shows that encouraging child birth is not really high on their priority.

Another cause of lower birth rates and lower consumption is long working hours. How is someone supposed to consume or have kids if they are spending most of their time working? Not to mention there is a massive amount of male and female virgins because of this reason (no time to meet people). Given the Communist nature of the CPC, I honestly can't wait for them to start working of solving this problem related to capitalism, although for the moment it seems we are in for a long ride.