China demographics thread.

steel21

Junior Member
Registered Member
It's FT, one of the mouthpieces of Western propaganda. The same media outlets who made Gao Fu sound like he's doubting China's vaccine efficacy. They can make people quote anything.

Let me say this again: you don't know what you're talking about.

Demographics are a non-issue. Japan has had an aging society for decades, and it hasn't imploded. What it does have, are a host of other problems such as an incompetent government, corrupt politicians, and an apathetic populace.

China's demographics are a non-issue because the Chinese society is stable and dynamic. The state has enough resources and infrastructure to tackle any demographic challenges that might crop up. The leaders have both vision and pragmatism, and they have access to far more data than some random keyboard warrior who reads a western propaganda piece and thinks he knows better than Xi Jinping.
Yup, FT writes shit article.

To fully understand potential scenarios, outcome based on technological, economic and cultural issues and models, no article shorter than 30 pages (without the notes) can possibly even begin to scratch the issue.

To all the nay-sayer, you don't have to run faster than the bear.....
- EU: moderate demographic issue, racial integration issue.
- Japan: HUGE demographic issue
- US: huge social program obligations, racial issues, and developing demographic issues on top of a national education quality problem.
- India: where do I even begin? 25% illiteracy?

When you measure across all the competitors, China has a better deck of cards and deft player than the rest.
 

gadgetcool5

Senior Member
Registered Member
The Total Fertility Rate in Hong Kong is around 0.87 already. A lot lower than Japan which is 1.3 actually. That means in every generation, the population falls by more than half. In two generations, 75% is lost. In urban China it's probably not too different. Without the rural areas China's situation would be even worse.

This is the real genocide, IMO. The genocide of Han Chinese by modern policy which makes it unprofitable to have children. What is worse is it's a complete importation of Western neoliberal nihilistic lifestyle and selfish values, and completely goes against traditional Chinese values which prized family and children.
IMO China should take decisive action to turn this stuff around.
 
D

Deleted member 15887

Guest
BIG NEWS
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Big problems for China. It seems that their official fertility figures overestimated their real fertility rate as per the PBOC report.

With the population set to be reduced below the 1.4bn mark, the decline is faster than the officials anticipated.

China is in big big trouble with its demographics. No, automation wont solve this
Census figures haven't been released? I assume they are basing this off the birth registration records last year, which would obviously show lower birth rates (as 20% of births go unregistered). As last year's birth registration records were only 10 million, only a barely above yearly deaths, then its understandable why FT would come to that conclusion. Having said that, we will need to wait until the actual census figures come out. But if the situation truly is that desperate, the CCP, being a fan of social engineering, will probably turn a 180 and not only drop all existing childbirth restrictions, but start heavy-handedly promoting natalism. (Such a situation would work, perhaps almost too well, which is why it is not the most desirable outcome)
 

steel21

Junior Member
Registered Member
The Total Fertility Rate in Hong Kong is around 0.87 already. A lot lower than Japan which is 1.3 actually. That means in every generation, the population falls by more than half. In two generations, 75% is lost. In urban China it's probably not too different. Without the rural areas China's situation would be even worse.

This is the real genocide, IMO. The genocide of Han Chinese by modern policy which makes it unprofitable to have children. What is worse is it's a complete importation of Western neoliberal nihilistic lifestyle and selfish values, and completely goes against traditional Chinese values which prized family and children.
IMO China should take decisive action to turn this stuff around.
You mean this lot? I wonder why????

1619550575439.png
wonder why
 

voyager1

Captain
Registered Member
The Total Fertility Rate in Hong Kong is around 0.87 already. A lot lower than Japan which is 1.3 actually. That means in every generation, the population falls by more than half. In two generations, 75% is lost. In urban China it's probably not too different. Without the rural areas China's situation would be even worse.

This is the real genocide, IMO. The genocide of Han Chinese by modern policy which makes it unprofitable to have children. What is worse is it's a complete importation of Western neoliberal nihilistic lifestyle and selfish values, and completely goes against traditional Chinese values which prized family and children.
IMO China should take decisive action to turn this stuff around.
Yes, these people think its all "propaganda" and that everyone else is lying. Even after the Chinese Gov expresses concern these people still say its all false, everything is ok, muh automation etc. They live in a La La La land.

Just wait for the census numbers to be released (central gov has postponed their release so far....), and then watch as panic sets in lol

Catastrophic mistake by Chinese leaders for not addressing this issue a decade ago.

"Muh propaganda", "Muh fake PBOC statement", "Muh fake Gov concern" lmao
 
D

Deleted member 15887

Guest
It is understandable. Immigration and integration has historically been a sensitive matter for China.

They might end up making their own "Immigration with Chinese characteristics" lol :)
Its a precarious situation. if they got rid of child birth limits too early, then you end up with hundreds of millions of people unemployed, causing social instability which the party fears. That's why they've been so precautious about eliminating childbirth restrictions... but if FT's alleged news turns out to be a fact, then that is when I think the party will rapidly change their stance on birth policies
 

solarz

Brigadier
Dude stop embarrassing yourself.

The PBOC itself released a STATEMENT.

The guy from the Beijing-based think tank was also directly NAMED and QUOTED.

There is no conspiracy here. You are paranoid about "western propaganda". This article was at the top page, the first article for a visitor to the website to see. This is no propaganda and in this case I believe them 100% about their sources.

"Japan has aged but not imploded"
Yes it just stagnated for 3 decades, nothing biggie, right?

Japan is basically set in ice with the old economically eating the young there. The young people are working like slaves for their 55-60 years bosses. Sure, "no problem, not imploded".

Last time I checked, the PBOC dealt with money, not people. Taking quotes from irrelevant agencies and passing them off as some kind of authority is a typical tactic of western propaganda.

What's really funny about you is that you think these articles from the West are some kind of breaking news. If you had more understanding about China, you'd realize that the Chinese government keeps track of all kinds of indicators in the country. Whatever you learn about in the public domain, they would have known about it for years.

The Chinese government didn't just relax the family planning policy to two kids. They went through successive revisions over the 4 decades since the FPP was first implemented. First they allowed rural families to have a second child if their first was a girl. Then they allowed parents who were only children to have two kids. Then finally they allowed everyone to have two kids. This progress shows that the decision makers in the central government are well aware of China's demographic trend, and are taking action when they deem appropriate.

Talks of China's impending demographic doom has been around since Gordon Chang first published his book, and has been about as accurate as Gordon's predictions.
 

crash8pilot

Junior Member
Registered Member
tenor.png
 

solarz

Brigadier
Yup, FT writes shit article.

To fully understand potential scenarios, outcome based on technological, economic and cultural issues and models, no article shorter than 30 pages (without the notes) can possibly even begin to scratch the issue.

To all the nay-sayer, you don't have to run faster than the bear.....
- EU: moderate demographic issue, racial integration issue.
- Japan: HUGE demographic issue
- US: huge social program obligations, racial issues, and developing demographic issues on top of a national education quality problem.
- India: where do I even begin? 25% illiteracy?

When you measure across all the competitors, China has a better deck of cards and deft player than the rest.

Exactly. Every country has its own share of problems.

The problem is not those problems. It's how the country responds to those problems.

Look at COVID: exact same problem all over the world, wildly different responses.

The success with which China tackled covid, and still is keeping China covid-free, tells me that the Chinese government is competent enough to handle any demographic transition challenges that may arise.
 

voyager1

Captain
Registered Member
SCMP picked up the story, some usual western bs there but this is what I find important
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Analysts say that the signs have been clear that a demographic crisis is looming in China – and that officials there have not always been honest about the population numbers they present.
“If the data is wrong, it means that the policymaking is wrong,” said Yi. “China faces a very severe age problem.”
These criminal officials must get the death penalty

“The demographic trends in China were already obvious before this announcement, but this news confirms fears that China’s population shrinkage continues despite relaxation of its population policies,” said Mary Gallagher, director of the University of Michigan’s International Institute
Labor shortages in manufacturing and the rapid ageing of China’s population were noticed nearly two decades ago,” she said. “It is sensitive because many people blame the government for the long delay in rescinding the one-child policy.”
Absolutely. The Gov must be shamed, and the officials involved must be punished severely for failing to act for so long

Huge trouble for China. And lol for the people saying before it is just Western Propaganda.

Watch the panic set in when the people realise they were duped that everything was ok. "Muh Western propaganda" they said lol
 
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