China demographics thread.

[voyager1]

1- Bombardment with ads that are encouraging marriage and parenthood in media.
>> What the government says has little impact on how people plan their families.

2- Tax incentives for people with children
>> Now we are getting somewhere. However income tax are pretty low in China to begin with, so the mileage may vary.

3- Childcare centers for working mothers
>> I think that is already happening. A lot of child care are now subsidized. We experienced that 2 years ago when we returned for the summer.

4- Making marriage and divorce easier and less consequential so the people are less deterred from marrying.
>> Yea, but kids from broken families are more of a liability than no kids at all.

5- Complete abolishment of child limits
>> NO, JUST NOT, that will encourage the under educated and under resourced population to explode. I would rather have an incentive and punitive policy combination. Have more than replacement rate = incentive. Have more than you can support = reduction in benefits.

6- Mandatory extra pay for more than 45+ hours per week. 996 becomes 965.
>> China is undergoing a critical stage in development. Let the market sort it out. Policy should create a framework and not absolute barriers, which just encourage gaming.

7- Paid maternity and paternity leaves
>> A couple weeks would do. The real enabler here are the grandparents.

8- Make immigration a little easier
>> Based on talent and skills. Hot genes should also be welcomed.

9- More regulation on the housing market
>> Not sure the housing market can get more regulated.
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2 kids are a lot of work.
- We have dance, Chinese and equestrian lessons for my daughter (3)
- MMA. Yuanfudao, Chinese and scratch programing lessons for my son (6)
On top of a private school education here in Northern VA.

Quality, quality quality. Even here in the US, I don't see how we can do the same if we have a 3rd kid. There just isn't enough time.

In my opinion the solution will be for the state to "automate" how much time a kid needs for growing up.

It will provide a lot of childcare services, after-school activities to keep children at school until parents come back from work, more AI on homework (not just giving answers, more than that)

Also, lower housing costs, lower children raising costs, reduce all taxes for child items, more pre-schools, self-driving for kids going to and from school (important) , make food more accessible to kids going to school so that parents dont have to prepare food every day for them

So the way I see the future is to make raising children as easy/confortable as possible. House costs must also be lowered of course

 

[BlackWindMnt]

Has there even been a developed nation that could reverse their population decline?

 

[steel21]

In my opinion the solution will be for the state to "automate" how much time a kid needs for growing up.

It will provide a lot of childcare services, after-school activities to keep children at school until parents come back from work, more AI on homework (not just giving answers, more than that)

Also, lower housing costs, lower children raising costs, reduce all taxes for child items, more pre-schools, self-driving for kids going to and from school (important) , make food more accessible to kids going to school so that parents dont have to prepare food every day for them

So the way I see the future is to make raising children as easy/confortable as possible. House costs must also be lowered of course

Kids are a lot of work, but it is also supremely rewarding.

What you describe sounds like the Spartan program from Halo. The culture and society will not survive prolong exposure to such automated out-sourcing.

The housing cost is artificially high. It is how the Chinese and CCP decided was the best means of managing capital, and restraining capital flight. So while 1-2 tier cities will be kept high to sustain investment and capital, 3-4 tier cities can be incentivized for growth. Couple that with uber fast MAGLEVs, some balance can be reached between exclusivity of Tier 1-2 and the expansive living of Tier 3-4, much as guys moves out to Long Island after they are done living in lower east side.

Trust me, everything we can think of they already have though of. Just sit back and watch it work itself out in 10-20 years.

I do wish genetic therapy can be more pervasive. People would fuck more if everyone was hotter, that is until they have 2 kids.

 

[siegecrossbow]

Has there even been a developed nation that could reverse their population decline?

The US did via immigration.

 

[voyager1]

The US can simply open its borders and next day it can have a total of 1 billion people looking to enter the "land of free and opportunity" to live the "American Dream"

 

[steel21]

The US did via immigration.

Well.......

US got a huge dividend from the war and educated talents escaping Europe. Then got another wave that ran out of Asia in the 1960s to 1980s.

That is a very unique case. One can argue that integration was never really 100%, evident through the racism and violence we are seeing day to day here.

 

[steel21]

The US can simply open its borders and next day it can have a total of 1 billion people looking to enter the "land of free and opportunity" to live the "American Dream"

NO.

I think the MAGA folk would disagree with you. I don't know what the optimum integration rate is, but 3X current population would turn this place upside down if it happened within 50 years. It will make the American Dream less and less tenable.

Not that I'm against immigration, but too much of a good thing is a bad thing, it all comes down to nuance policy tweaks and implementation.

 

[solarz]

X for Doubt.

Did you check the FT article? Sorry but the PBOC itself is worried about the fertility rate


Then the Beijing-based think-tank also agrees


So in contrast to your claims the Chinese Gov is clearly very worried about this. Demographics is an absolutely huge part of a country and it affects a lot of things, pensions, housing, infrastructure, economics, social welfare etc.

Let me say it again, The demographics issue if not solved it will blow up in China's face. The Gov is aware of it however it still remains paralysed on responding to it. Measures should have been taken decades ago

Automation is not the silver bullet you think it is otherwise the PBOC and the Gov wouldn't be so worried about demographics. Xi should better start passing reforms immediately or China will be in big trouble

It's FT, one of the mouthpieces of Western propaganda. The same media outlets who made Gao Fu sound like he's doubting China's vaccine efficacy. They can make people quote anything.

Let me say this again: you don't know what you're talking about.

Demographics are a non-issue. Japan has had an aging society for decades, and it hasn't imploded. What it does have, are a host of other problems such as an incompetent government, corrupt politicians, and an apathetic populace.

China's demographics are a non-issue because the Chinese society is stable and dynamic. The state has enough resources and infrastructure to tackle any demographic challenges that might crop up. The leaders have both vision and pragmatism, and they have access to far more data than some random keyboard warrior who reads a western propaganda piece and thinks he knows better than Xi Jinping.

 

[voyager1]

It's FT, one of the mouthpieces of Western propaganda. The same media outlets who made Gao Fu sound like he's doubting China's vaccine efficacy. They can make people quote anything.

Let me say this again: you don't know what you're talking about.

Demographics are a non-issue. Japan has had an aging society for decades, and it hasn't imploded. What it does have, are a host of other problems such as an incompetent government, corrupt politicians, and an apathetic populace.

China's demographics are a non-issue because the Chinese society is stable and dynamic. The state has enough resources and infrastructure to tackle any demographic challenges that might crop up. The leaders have both vision and pragmatism, and they have access to far more data than some random keyboard warrior who reads a western propaganda piece and thinks he knows better than Xi Jinping.

Dude stop embarrassing yourself.

The PBOC itself released a STATEMENT.

The guy from the Beijing-based think tank was also directly NAMED and QUOTED.

There is no conspiracy here. You are paranoid about "western propaganda". This article was at the top page, the first article for a visitor to the website to see. This is no propaganda and in this case I believe them 100% about their sources.

"Japan has aged but not imploded"
Yes it just stagnated for 3 decades, nothing biggie, right?

Japan is basically set in ice with the old economically eating the young there. The young people are working like slaves for their 55-60 years bosses. Sure, "no problem, not imploded".

 

[solarz]

The problem is that at this stage rolling back one child policy is not enough. When they ended it in 2015 or 2016 most of the mothers giving birth were 30/40 years old and having a second child. The millennials are uninterested in having children. Just look at Japan and South Korea. Unless they actively encourage child births, the trend won’t turn around.

I know plenty of people in China in their 30s and 40s who are having second children. My wife's high school friend, who used to complain about having no time to manage her one child, just had a second child last year. My cousin's second kid is 6 years old now.