I think that while the one child policy exacerbated the issue, the primary driver of the precipitous population decline are urbanization and associated high property prices.
China demographics thread.
- Thread starter gadgetcool5
- Start date
Do you think China can achieve a per capita GDP of $30,000 US by 2035? Or will the pop decline inhibit the economy?
One scenario means every year from now on deaths will outpace births.
The other means births will rebound to a previous trendline for a few years before hitting peak population again at a later date.
Maybe it makes little difference in the long term. I don't think there's a realistic solution out there anyway.
But maybe with the right policies you can stabilize the demographics in 10-20 years time. A big big maybe.
Skywatcher
Captain
$20,000-25,000 is definitely doable.
$30,000 could also be impacted by any changes in the exchange rates.
A big problem is the pensions. With people getting pension at 50 and 55 years old, if the average life is 80 years it means that the state must hand out pensions for a whopping 25-30 years. And with more old people than young people it means that the young will become slaves for the old in order to pay these pensions.
This is clearly unsustainable and China must come out and immediately raise the retirement age to 60-65 years and later on to 67 years
Maybe China can phase in these changes with various methods, but these reforms must be passed ASAP. Every year China waits, millions of people retire at 50-55 years old and need to be given pension from the state until the end of their lives.
This must be stopped, the old are robbing the young
This is clearly unsustainable and China must come out and immediately raise the retirement age to 60-65 years and later on to 67 years
Maybe China can phase in these changes with various methods, but these reforms must be passed ASAP. Every year China waits, millions of people retire at 50-55 years old and need to be given pension from the state until the end of their lives.
This must be stopped, the old are robbing the young
They are raising the retirement age according to:
I dont think they have passed a law about it. I have heard the talk about it but it is still talk not something that has already been implemented
solarz
Brigadier
You clearly don't know what you're talking about.
China has 1.4 billion people. Almost every aspect of life is dominated by this fact. From the intense competition of Gaokao, the 996 culture, the sky rocketing real estate, the insane traffic, the air pollution, the loss of natural environment to agricultural land... All of these problems are tied to the population.
This new trend of population decrease is in line with other measures taken by the Chinese government to build a sustainable economy and increase the people's quality of life.
Before you go accusing Chinese elders of robbing the youth, you should first learn how Chinese elders live. The money they receive through their pensions goes to help their children and grandchildren, most of whom would not be able to buy a home without their parents help.
Most Chinese elders live with one of their children. They help take care of the grandchildren, and are in turn taken care of by their children. The pension they receive help the new generation receive a good education and achieve a quality of life.
In the coming years, automation will be wiping out millions of manual labor jobs. For example, only 10 years ago, thousands of people from neighboring provinces would flock to Xinjiang to pick cotton every year. Today, most of that cotton is picked by machinery.
The future of the Chinese workforce is not in manual labor. The current population decrease is almost entirely driven by the post-WW2 baby boom. China is on the path to a sustainable society.
Let's hope! Also, do you guys know if China is taking any substantial step in increasing automation? Any articles I can read up?
X for Doubt.
Did you check the FT article? Sorry but the PBOC itself is worried about the fertility rate
Then the Beijing-based think-tank also agrees
So in contrast to your claims the Chinese Gov is clearly very worried about this. Demographics is an absolutely huge part of a country and it affects a lot of things, pensions, housing, infrastructure, economics, social welfare etc.
Let me say it again, The demographics issue if not solved it will blow up in China's face. The Gov is aware of it however it still remains paralysed on responding to it. Measures should have been taken decades ago
Automation is not the silver bullet you think it is otherwise the PBOC and the Gov wouldn't be so worried about demographics. Xi should better start passing reforms immediately or China will be in big trouble