China demographics thread.

[voyager1]

Agreed, but the question is when?

China is slow on rolling out national changes. They do well in pilot programs but nationally they are slow.

Hopefully after the census is released and the Chinese get shell-shocked by the demographic decline, Xi can steamroll any resistance by pointing to the sobering census numbers.

This will help him. If the FT article is correct (I think it is, it even has Beijing Think tanks talking about it) then the data seems really bad for China. Xi can take advantage of that and start passing massive reforms

 

[KampfAlwin]

China is slow on rolling out national changes. They do well in pilot programs but nationally they are slow.

Hopefully after the census is released and the Chinese get shell-shocked by the demographic decline, Xi can steamroll any resistance by pointing to the sobering census numbers.

This will help him. If the FT article is correct (I think it is, it even has Beijing Think tanks talking about it) then the data seems really bad for China. Xi can take advantage of that and start passing massive reforms

Let’s hope. The more people from other countries come in, hopefully the better China’s image will be when they tell it to their friends overseas. But the problem is, as with most Asian countries like mine, they are strict with immigration with citizenship as its in the culture.

 

[voyager1]

Let’s hope. The more people from other countries come in, hopefully the better China’s image will be when they tell it to their friends overseas. But the problem is, as with most Asian countries like mine, they are strict with immigration with citizenship as its in the culture.

It is understandable. Immigration and integration has historically been a sensitive matter for China.

They might end up making their own "Immigration with Chinese characteristics" lol

 

[Kaeshmiri]

BIG NEWS

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Big problems for China. It seems that their official fertility figures overestimated their real fertility rate as per the PBOC report.

With the population set to be reduced below the 1.4bn mark, the decline is faster than the officials anticipated.

China is in big big trouble with its demographics. No, automation wont solve this

Not at all surprised at this. Scientists have been warning China for more than a decade now regarding its demographic challenges but so far the response has been lethargic.

 

[voyager1]

Not at all surprised at this. Scientists have been warning China for more than a decade now regarding its demographic challenges but so far the response has been lethargic

Total idiotic and slow response and what is even more stupid is that they are still talking about "Pilot programs", more studies, more reports etc. Like man Wtf, just pass the reforms and get done with it. It already lost 10 years. If it had started in 2010 things would be much better now

Keep talking about pilot programs and other stuff. Demographics will hit China like a train hits a rabbit

IMO what is even more concerning is that they overestimated the total fertility rate at 1.8 when in reality it is 1.5 !!

This is a huge miscalculation and it dramatically shortens China's demographic dividend. This has implications for economic policies, education, house investements etc..
This is a huge blunder by the Chinese Gov

 

[ansy1968]

Agreed, but the question is when?

@KampfAlwin I think its in the works this survey will hasten the policy change, bro China had invested a lot to improve the quality of life of its citizen, with the 14th 5 year plan and new investment it will improve more. People will go where the growth is and what is not to like about China, the food is really good, personal space and some bad habits (especially smoking ) maybe an irritant but one can easily adjusted.

 

[lube]

I read before that there was a massive drop in recorded births. But nothing as big as this.
How much of the drop are from fake numbers being cleaned up and how much are from people delaying having children due to covid-19?

Only way to know for sure is to see the trend numbers for 2021 and 2022.

 

[voyager1]

I read before that there was a massive drop in recorded births. But nothing as big as this.
How much of the drop are from fake numbers being cleaned up and how much are from people delaying having children due to covid-19?

Only way to know for sure is to see the trend numbers for 2021 and 2022.

This is not just a one time event. Most of the world actually saw decline in births during Covid. This demographic crisis has been talked for decades

 

[BlackWindMnt]

@KampfAlwin I think its in the works this survey will hasten the policy change, bro China had invested a lot to improve the quality of life of its citizen, with the 14th 5 year plan and new investment it will improve more. People will go where the growth is and what is not to like about China, the food is really good, personal space and some bad habits (especially smoking ) maybe an irritant but one can easily adjusted.

The opportunity in china's tier 1 cities is nice, they are nearing western European like level of salary in the software sector. Outside of tier 1 cities you pretty much only have Singapore offering about the same level of salary in Asia.

Wouldn't mind going for at least 3~5 years to learn about the culture and language, if i make a financial loss on that its worth the experience given i'm still relative young and can still go on adventures.

 

[voyager1]

The opportunity in china's tier 1 cities is nice, they are nearing western European like level of salary in the software sector. Outside of tier 1 cities you pretty much only have Singapore offering about the same level of salary in Asia.

Wouldn't mind going for at least 3~5 years to learn about the culture and language, if i make a financial loss on that its worth the experience given i'm still relative young and can still go on adventures.

wouldn't recommend. Many expats are saying that a lot of stuff are restricted because they dont have Chinese ID, it causes a lot of headaches for them

Shanghai is basically the only international city where foreigners can feel somewhat comfortable. I personally think that in 5 years Shanghai will become a lot better than now on this matter. In 10 years China will become much more attractive for immigration