China demographics thread.

Jiang ZeminFanboy

Senior Member
Registered Member
Of course, it's worried because the demographic TFR was faked by the gangsters at Family Planning Policy. You will soon see it at the upcoming census. For years, the difference between data provided by the PBOC census bureau with different branches for cities was shockingly different (much lower) from data provided by family planning policy.
 

voyager1

Captain
Registered Member
Of course, it's worried because the demographic TFR was faked by the gangsters at Family Planning Policy. You will soon see it at the upcoming census. For years, the difference between data provided by the PBOC census bureau with different branches for cities was shockingly different (much lower) from data provided by family planning policy.
Yep. This is such a serious thing that the death penalty must apply to those responsible.

People here can dismiss demographics with "Automation, AI etc" buzzwords but they will soon realise its importance. I can bet you 100 dollars that the Gov is panicking internally due to these shockingly low demographics figures.

Did you also notice that the census was completed on December (?) last year but the Gov decided against releasing it?... Jeez, I wonder why...

I am also betting that when they release the report in a few months, simultaneously the Gov will start a barrage of reforms to fix some issues.
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Yep. This is such a serious thing that the death penalty must apply to those responsible.

People here can dismiss demographics with "Automation, AI etc" buzzwords but they will soon realise its importance. I can bet you 100 dollars that the Gov is panicking internally due to these shockingly low demographics figures.

Did you also notice that the census was completed on December (?) last year but the Gov decided against releasing it?... Jeez, I wonder why...

I am also betting that when they release the report in a few months, simultaneously the Gov will start a barrage of reforms to fix some issues.

The problem is that at this stage rolling back one child policy is not enough. When they ended it in 2015 or 2016 most of the mothers giving birth were 30/40 years old and having a second child. The millennials are uninterested in having children. Just look at Japan and South Korea. Unless they actively encourage child births, the trend won’t turn around.
 

voyager1

Captain
Registered Member
The problem is that at this stage rolling back one child policy is not enough. When they ended it in 2015 or 2016 most of the mothers giving birth were 30/40 years old and having a second child. The millennials are uninterested in having children. Just look at Japan and South Korea. Unless they actively encourage child births, the trend won’t turn around.
I agree. Honestly just ending the One-Child policy wont do much, and as you said the young wont as well because of housing, "996" culture, low quality of life, expensive living costs in cities, debt etc.

One quick solution would be opening an immigration path to citizenship for East Asia people. However even this will be a landmine for the Gov lol.

Can you imagine the consequences of this action..Huge ramifications, plus it would have to make its own immigration and integration policies.

IMO immigration would help a lot but I dont think that the political Elites of China would do this. This could be an actual landmine if not handled carefully
 

voyager1

Captain
Registered Member
Also kids have no life outside of school in high school and that’s when a lot of their social development takes place.
Meh I dont think this is a big reason. Men are men, and when they see a pretty woman they want to do it ;)

There are many complex issues for the small demographics. Some studies have shown clear links between lower fertility rates and these reasons. Here are the 3 top ways to dramatically increase fertility rate, obviously these are extreme measures and I dont think that China will take any of the?

Number 1 is of course, contraceptives. If Gov was in such dire situation they could just ban them and then wait for the babies boom. Obviously an extreme measure but it could get implemented if the Gov was desperate.

2nd Women's education lowers fertility rate. If the Gov was barbaric it could restrict education but in this information era this wont happen. So i am just writing it down for academic purposes

3rd Religion, Gov could start promoting religion based on birth, children, youth etc. Also wont happen, but just for academic purposes again
 

BoraTas

Major
Registered Member
Yep. This is such a serious thing that the death penalty must apply to those responsible.

People here can dismiss demographics with "Automation, AI etc" buzzwords but they will soon realise its importance. I can bet you 100 dollars that the Gov is panicking internally due to these shockingly low demographics figures.

Did you also notice that the census was completed on December (?) last year but the Gov decided against releasing it?... Jeez, I wonder why...

I am also betting that when they release the report in a few months, simultaneously the Gov will start a barrage of reforms to fix some issues.
A week ago the gov started a crackdown on feminists
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Possible other measures are
1- Bombardment with ads that are encouraging marriage and parenthood in media.
2- Tax incentives for people with children
3- Childcare centers for working mothers
4- Making marriage and divorce easier and less consequential so the people are less deterred from marrying.
5- Complete abolishment of child limits
6- Mandatory extra pay for more than 45+ hours per week. 996 becomes 965.
7- Paid maternity and paternity leaves
8- Make immigration a little easier
9- More regulation on the housing market

Sci-fi measure
- Develop artificial wombs so pregnancy is no longer needed.

Desperate measure
- Ban condoms
 

HybridHypothesis

Junior Member
Registered Member
Meh I dont think this is a big reason. Men are men, and when they see a pretty woman they want to do it ;)

There are many complex issues for the small demographics. Some studies have shown clear links between lower fertility rates and these reasons. Here are the 3 top ways to dramatically increase fertility rate, obviously these are extreme measures and I dont think that China will take any of the?

Number 1 is of course, contraceptives. If Gov was in such dire situation they could just ban them and then wait for the babies boom. Obviously an extreme measure but it could get implemented if the Gov was desperate.

2nd Women's education lowers fertility rate. If the Gov was barbaric it could restrict education but in this information era this wont happen. So i am just writing it down for academic purposes

3rd Religion, Gov could start promoting religion based on birth, children, youth etc. Also wont happen, but just for academic purposes again

Female literacy is actually the best correlated factor with low birth rates IIRC.
 

voyager1

Captain
Registered Member
A week ago the gov started a crackdown on feminists
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Possible other measures are
1- Bombardment with ads that are encouraging marriage and parenthood in media.
2- Tax incentives for people with children
3- Childcare centers for working mothers
4- Making marriage and divorce easier and less consequential so the people are less deterred from marrying.
5- Complete abolishment of child limits
6- Mandatory extra pay for more than 45+ hours per week. 996 becomes 965.
7- Paid maternity and paternity leaves
8- Make immigration a little easier
9- More regulation on the housing market

Sci-fi measure
- Develop artificial wombs so pregnancy is no longer needed.

Desperate measure
- Ban condoms
Good list.

Propaganda on films, internet, TVs etc regarding marriage and child birth is also very powerful.

As long as the state forms a powerful propaganda machine constantly pushing child birth then things will change.

However house costs must come down, better social welfare, more childcare, etc
 

steel21

Junior Member
Registered Member
A week ago the gov started a crackdown on feminists
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Possible other measures are
1- Bombardment with ads that are encouraging marriage and parenthood in media.
2- Tax incentives for people with children
3- Childcare centers for working mothers
4- Making marriage and divorce easier and less consequential so the people are less deterred from marrying.
5- Complete abolishment of child limits
6- Mandatory extra pay for more than 45+ hours per week. 996 becomes 965.
7- Paid maternity and paternity leaves
8- Make immigration a little easier
9- More regulation on the housing market

Sci-fi measure
- Develop artificial wombs so pregnancy is no longer needed.

Desperate measure
- Ban condoms
1- Bombardment with ads that are encouraging marriage and parenthood in media.
>> What the government says has little impact on how people plan their families.

2- Tax incentives for people with children
>> Now we are getting somewhere. However income tax are pretty low in China to begin with, so the mileage may vary.

3- Childcare centers for working mothers
>> I think that is already happening. A lot of child care are now subsidized. We experienced that 2 years ago when we returned for the summer.

4- Making marriage and divorce easier and less consequential so the people are less deterred from marrying.
>> Yea, but kids from broken families are more of a liability than no kids at all.

5- Complete abolishment of child limits
>> NO, JUST NOT, that will encourage the under educated and under resourced population to explode. I would rather have an incentive and punitive policy combination. Have more than replacement rate = incentive. Have more than you can support = reduction in benefits.

6- Mandatory extra pay for more than 45+ hours per week. 996 becomes 965.
>> China is undergoing a critical stage in development. Let the market sort it out. Policy should create a framework and not absolute barriers, which just encourage gaming the system.

7- Paid maternity and paternity leaves
>> A couple weeks would do. The real enabler here are the grandparents.

8- Make immigration a little easier
>> Based on talent and skills. Hot genes should also be welcomed.

9- More regulation on the housing market
>> Not sure the housing market can get more regulated.
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2 kids are a lot of work.
- We have dance, Chinese and equestrian lessons for my daughter (3)
- MMA. Yuanfudao, Chinese and scratch programing lessons for my son (6)
On top of a private school education here in Northern VA.

Quality, quality quality. Even here in the US, I don't see how we can do the same if we have a 3rd kid. There just isn't enough time.

Overall, I think you guys are overblowing the problem. Even if the population shrinks to 1B, it would still outclass FVEY and EU combined in terms of upper income population.

Kids are persistent mood killers. We are more parents now than lovers. My hope is getting on a lean AAS cycle (Tren-A and Sust) once the kids leaves the house, at least that's what my HRT doc friend tells me.
 
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