I know Canadians who worked in Shanghai/Beijing and 3rd tier cities in Central China. Some said they preferred the 3rd tier cities because of affordability and relaxed environment. Despite making a lower wage they were able to save more money and work is not as fast paced. They are more family oriented thus didn't care much about trendy bars/restaurants. 3rd tier cities still has all the basic amenities.
China demographics thread.
- Thread starter gadgetcool5
- Start date
solarz
Brigadier
People work long hours in China because there's heavy competition in the job market. There's heavy competition because the economic activity has traditionally been concentrated in a few sectors and in a few regions.
We are in the process of seeing a diversification of the job market, both in terms of sector and geography. Rural economic activities are expanding and smaller cities are catching up.
If you look at the above per capita gdp maps from 2014 to 2019, you can clearly see the trend toward a more balanced wealth distribution.
In the near future, university graduates from smaller cities won't need to congregate in Beijing or Shanghai to all fight over the same pool of jobs, they will be able to find work in their home towns. Young people will no longer need to go to a foreign city where they have no friends and no family.
What encourages a young couple to want to marry and have kids? Besides things like Love?
Financial Stability.
The girl has to feel like she's entering into something where she will be supported, and the man has to feel like he will be able to support a family. In the West, this is usually an annual income of 70-100k.
The state could encourage pro-social family planning, the noplatforming of feminist karens is a great move especially since China already has its own feminist movement that is distinct from the anti social civilisation destroying third wave feminism of the west.
Financial Stability.
The girl has to feel like she's entering into something where she will be supported, and the man has to feel like he will be able to support a family. In the West, this is usually an annual income of 70-100k.
The state could encourage pro-social family planning, the noplatforming of feminist karens is a great move especially since China already has its own feminist movement that is distinct from the anti social civilisation destroying third wave feminism of the west.
I, along with so many others not just here but all over China and in fact the rest of the world have been waving our damn hands about this issue for years. It doesn't just affect China, it affects all of Humanity, but it's showing it's first signs in East Asia, and to a lesser but still significant extent in Western nations (especially Europe).
Those like solarz who seek to tow the party line no matter how bad it gets are ridiculous. They seem to be either willfully ignorant or really enjoy having their heads up peoples' butts. Sucking up to government officials doesn't help a country; it is in fact traitorous when it goes against the national interest. The fact that he even says JAPAN is not in a demographic crisis speaks to his ignorance or apathy about the situation. Of course if the CCP turns around in the next few months/years (and it will) and starts heavily incentivizing new births, you will see him and people like him also hand-wringing about the demographic crisis. It's a joke and people like that shouldn't be taken seriously. Their opinion exists only insofar as a government has an opinion.
Sure, automation may come about and solve most of these problems, but that is not a GUARANTEE. Going all-in on automation and AI like Japan did in the 90s is a cope and will result in the same hell Japan is in. If anyone, solarz included, wants China to end up in the same demographic crisis like Japan because he doesn't even consider it one he should just be ignored. And even if automation resolves the aging crisis, it doesn't at all speak to new innovation.
Automation doesn't innovate. Automation doesn't come up with new ideas. Automation doesn't have personality and therefore doesn't take big risks on behalf of a company or a nation. For that you need AGI, and are people really going to casually say that AGI is 100% a guarantee to happen in the next 20 years and therefore we shouldn't worry about having half as many Chinese youth every generation?
Because that is what is going to happen if this continues. The TFR hitting 1.5 is NOT THE END. The road doesn't end here. It will get worse every year, just like in Korea or Japan or HK or Taiwan. Or even in Europe, which outside the highly liberal pro-maternal Scandinavian countries is in absolute hell and has to rely on importing millions of immigrants of a completely different culture.
Those like solarz who seek to tow the party line no matter how bad it gets are ridiculous. They seem to be either willfully ignorant or really enjoy having their heads up peoples' butts. Sucking up to government officials doesn't help a country; it is in fact traitorous when it goes against the national interest. The fact that he even says JAPAN is not in a demographic crisis speaks to his ignorance or apathy about the situation. Of course if the CCP turns around in the next few months/years (and it will) and starts heavily incentivizing new births, you will see him and people like him also hand-wringing about the demographic crisis. It's a joke and people like that shouldn't be taken seriously. Their opinion exists only insofar as a government has an opinion.
Sure, automation may come about and solve most of these problems, but that is not a GUARANTEE. Going all-in on automation and AI like Japan did in the 90s is a cope and will result in the same hell Japan is in. If anyone, solarz included, wants China to end up in the same demographic crisis like Japan because he doesn't even consider it one he should just be ignored. And even if automation resolves the aging crisis, it doesn't at all speak to new innovation.
Automation doesn't innovate. Automation doesn't come up with new ideas. Automation doesn't have personality and therefore doesn't take big risks on behalf of a company or a nation. For that you need AGI, and are people really going to casually say that AGI is 100% a guarantee to happen in the next 20 years and therefore we shouldn't worry about having half as many Chinese youth every generation?
Because that is what is going to happen if this continues. The TFR hitting 1.5 is NOT THE END. The road doesn't end here. It will get worse every year, just like in Korea or Japan or HK or Taiwan. Or even in Europe, which outside the highly liberal pro-maternal Scandinavian countries is in absolute hell and has to rely on importing millions of immigrants of a completely different culture.
The TFR now is much lower than 1.5, I believe the guy in the article talked about the 2016 year when official TFR by,family planning was about 1.7 but PBOC surveys shows different result. From what I've been looking, right now China might be close to 1.1 TFR.
Where are you getting that 1.1 TFR from? Show some data to support your argument.
Mr T
Senior Member
I'm not sure that's necessarily the case anymore. Increasing numbers of women around the world, not just in North America and Europe, don't get married because they want to develop a career. If they get pregnant they may be unable to get paid maternity leave, and/or be discriminated against on their return to the office.
Do you have any examples of a prominent Chinese "feminist karen"? Because most of those activists that have got into the news recently have been saying what should be uncontroversial things like that women shouldn't have to be harassed in the workplace as part of their job/to get promoted. Or that a man beating his wife to death isn't an internal family matter, and that the police should absolutely charge him with murder.
Really if you want to encourage more women to have children you need to have tough anti-discrimination policies such that they can feel confident maternity leave won't screw them over later. Second, you need more paid maternity and indeed paternity leave. In the 21st century there's no reason for men not to share more of the housework and child rearing. It's also good for the children to have more direct contact with their father growing up.
I believe the upward corrections on births by 25% like every year because of some unregistered births is ridiculous in the case that we have now a two-child policy, so if we deduct all 20-25% rise in births China TFR might even be under 1.0, but let's not do this, but only deduct less, so it could be about ~1.1.
I believe the contraction of the Chinese population under 1.4 B is because of correction of fake data, not because of less births than deaths, it's close but not yet there.
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Now to more real data than speculation.
- TFR census 2000 - 1.22
- TFR census 2010 - 1.18
TFR by family planning between 2010-2020 ridiculous numbers, even once 1.7.
- Here are the real census data, TFR for decades were super low at about 1.2, why would it have risen now? Some births probably were unregistered because of 1 child policy, but firstly one-child policy wasn't for all, secondly now there is no one-child policy. So even if TFR was a bit higher than on the census, it was 20 years ago and not in the recent census.
- I remember reading that there is less student in schools than would suggest from family planning policy numbers, I can't find it now, maybe later will add these articles and data for this claim.
Look here, Ningbo demographic data, there were also data for Dongbei, some such low numbers less than TFR 0.9
- 36,000 for Ningbo a city with 8.5 m people.
Singapore TFR 1.2, 40000 births with 5m people so most likely Ningbo has lower TFR than Singapore
And different cities have also very low births from the data we have.
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- China saw 10.035 million new registered births last year, according to the Ministry of Public Security, down from 11.79 million births in 2019
What was the basis that they used to revise the births upwards by almost 25% in 2019? I agree with some children not qualified for registration, but not millions! There's no one-child policy anymore, that's shenanigans.
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By @mista at pdf
Why we should trust such clowns in family planning policy? They had a reason to feed senior officials with garbage data.
Maybe they are fake dumb, to protect their own interest.
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Those self-styled feminists you see lionized in western media are foriegn agents working to divide Chinese society. Marxism-Leninism is not just the vanguard of workers but is also the vanguard of feminism. Socialist countries like China, Vietnam, Cuba, and the DPRK have pushed women's rights farther than any other society on earth. There is no legitimate reason for complaints about women's rights in China, if these feminists truly cared about advancing women's position in society, they would join the CPC.
You are talking about Hong Kong, not the whole China. In Hong Kong, fertility rate is very low because of the result of uncontrolled capitalism - they even have a fancy name 'freest economy' in the world. This translates to that housing prices are very high or you get a very small flat which will translate to very small family. Typical flats have only two rooms that leaves only 1 child per family.
If you live with in-laws, how it is even possible to have kids?
In neighboring Shenzhen, the houses are decent sizes and the SZ government is clamping down on those Hong Kong style sizes. The major problem in China is that real estate property development particularly in large cities is very much controlled by private entities and I personally think this is one of the policy mistakes. So this private real state development for maximum profit that makes houses small which will translate to very small families.