I'm afraid Sleepystudent can't come to a debate educated. The best he can manage is to come to a debate with a new IP.
China demographics thread.
- Thread starter gadgetcool5
- Start date
So you think China is less suited to use propaganda than western countries?
LOL at being deluded enough to think the far right government in Hungary believes in greater minority inclusion.
Agreed. But it has no relevance except in situations where there is a concept of racial or ethnic equality, nor does it apply to ethnically homogenous countries. American policy isn't going to start telling white Americans to have more children any time soon.
Classic sleepystudent. Brain drain is a good thing because it leads to having to support less retired people. Don't you think those educated people contribute more to the economy than they take when they retire?
You're wrong about deceleration being faster in China. The middle east has seen a centuries worth of fertility rates drop in years. China's started earlier but has been much more gradual.
AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
What will India do with all their young people with no jobs to give them...?
Kinda don't get your argument, and you are basically cherry picking stats. Of course there would be hordes of students applying for green cards to the US, be it Chinese or any other ethnicity. There is no denying that starting salary is much more attractive there compared to elsewhere, except for a select few of course. As income level rises, coupled with lack of opportunity due to race etc, that flow is going to slow, or even reverse. I mean, the people who return are those who has better opportunities in China, or have no opportunities in the US. It is hard to go against this reality, people go where the dollar flow.
Also, hate to sound like an arsehole, but bumping the birthrates of lower income groups like gypsies etc aren't going to pay you dividends and will just add to your social security burdens.
End of the day, high and medium paying jobs are finite, and the menial/labor intensive jobs will be replaced by robots/automation. Controlled decline in population will support this. As China moves up the value chain and wealth, the cheap labor pool in the central and western areas will get used up as they get more expensive. After that we still have plenty of immigrants from South, Central and South East Asia to tap into. (eg Pinoy/Indonesian maids per HK, labourers from Pakistan/Bangladesh / potentially Africa). The BRI initiative won't only just help develop those countries, the cultural influence and training can help China tap into these labor pools if needed. The infrastructure logistics network that China has set up is built to cater for this (No different from migrant worker model right now). As long as the $$$ is there, the solution is there.
China hasn't seriously tried to address low fertility rates seriously yet. It was only a few years ago the one child policy was ended.
LOL. You know as much about eastern Europe as you do China.
The policies you've referred to are NEW and it will take several years to see their effectiveness. Gypsy
And have failed. If you believe otherwise, you have no clue what you are talking about.
Why did you claim brain drain would fix things then?
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
You didn't read the articles posted. The rate of direct stay after graduation and is not the rate of eventual return as many decide to stay in the US for more experience working a few years before returning. This is adressed in the articles I posted.
Paywall hidden
Your change compares numbers from the 1970s to the 2030's. They detail the changes from a time when China's economy was in a state that resembled India's, which is primitive and driven by young bodies that can work hard physically. But two forces will ensure that China's demographics will not be an issue. Firstly is technology, which guarantees that while China's workforce will shrink during this time period, the actual production increases and growth is maintained. Manual labor is replaced with machine work. Secondly, there is a difference between overall workforce, which includes everyone doing the cheapest labor in the countryside which barely does anything more than stay alive (the peripheral workforce) and the high production, educated labor force, which is what ultimately determines a country's productivity. With China's education drive and poverty eradication, much of China's peripheral population that used to do low value manual labor are able to enter the educated workforce and become true assets. China's strength doesn't come from population growth; the period of strong population growth did not bring about high economic benefits. China's strength come from strengthening its educated workforce and reducing its peripheral one. So less overall population, higher STEM-educated workforce, leaner and stronger. Those 2 things are the key to transforming China from a country like India to a country stronger than America.
China removed the one-child policy in 2015. Since 2015 to 2021, the number of births went from 16.6M to 10.6M. Clearly incredible work.
"China’s rapid growth period came not from population growth but from population migration. The movement of people from poor rural areas to China’s cities may be the largest migration in human history. This migration shifted people from low productivity farm work to higher productivity factory work, and it was enabled by the government’s tolerance of entrepreneurship."
China has a huge cushion. Implementing the 2 child policy meant that China was still hesitant to let the population expand, but wanted something closer to maintenance. A population where no woman may have more than 2 children was not designed to expand but to contract slower. And the CCP wanted a smaller but leaner population as outlined above. In this time, the CCP learned that there were other barriers like a cost of education on the gray market that was holding birth rates down. So only in this year, have they removed the 2 child limit going for a 3 child limit, and started attacking gray market prep schools. Like I said, many tools just coming into play with a huge cushion and a dynamic that does not require population maintenance or growth to achieve growth/modernization.
Time for what? China's growth does not depend on population growth; it reduces its uneducated labor force and transforms them into the educated core labor force. It's cutting the fat and becoming leaner.
It's good and bad in separate ways. It's good for the US because the US needs smart people. It's good for China because brain circulation back fast-tracks China's development in areas where it could use a boost. So far, the result is that China far outgrows the US.
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Talent migration is a two-way street. To take a topical example, Abogen, the company behind China's leading mRNA COVID-19 vaccine candidate, was founded by a former Senior Scientist at Moderna.
Global talents and immigrants are not an effective solution for all problems.
The United States is the top choice of immigrants and scientists - engineers around the world, and that happens for many years.
But the gap between the United States and China continually shortened, not continuing to expand.(China relies on his own efforts and perseverance, not immigrants and global talents like the United States)
Finally, the United States encountered trouble, which they were dependent too much and immigrants and global talents. They are thirsty, they drink, then they are thirsty, and like drug addiction, cannot stop. They destroy themselves.
The United States is the top choice of immigrants and scientists - engineers around the world, and that happens for many years.
But the gap between the United States and China continually shortened, not continuing to expand.(China relies on his own efforts and perseverance, not immigrants and global talents like the United States)
Finally, the United States encountered trouble, which they were dependent too much and immigrants and global talents. They are thirsty, they drink, then they are thirsty, and like drug addiction, cannot stop. They destroy themselves.
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That is so short sighted and bullocks. Granted it is a spectacular failure for men's football, but for all else it is very effective.
I wonder where our space industry would be without a certain Mr. Qiang Xue Sheng?
Remind me what happened the last time we shut the rest of the world out?
China closing the gap on US isn't due to the talent/immigration but more to do with the competing interests and corrupt system within that values profit over everything else.
I mean, the Chinese system isn't exactly perfect with some toxic culture such as 辈分 etc, and some sectors needs new blood from outside to inject new ideas and just stir the place up so meritocracy gets a chance again.
And it is not really a good idea to under estimate the US and the way it is set up. The system might be in a sorry state and its leadership right now might be pathetic but a skinny camel is still bigger than a horse. There are still many many brilliant people there plying their trade keeping the place afloat..... A true existential threat and not some bogus threat made up to buy votes will probably galvanize it again.
We have been cherry picking the good parts of the US and I don't see why they don't continue with global talents.
If China closes up then it means the US has free picking in a 5 billion large talent pool. I'm not saying throw open china's borders it's not like it really matters. Geopolitical and demography pressure will keep on reducing the options to take.
That why they had this saying about the Americans, Americans will choose the right option after having exhausted all other options first. The pressure to find a solution will always creep up the numbers don't lie. Even Japan of all places has become more open for Asian immigration.