China demographics thread.

[Abominable]

And herein lies the problem. China is a middle-income country with middle-income fiscal constraints and thus cannot spend lots of money for pro-natalist measures to raise the birth rate; yet, if it doesn't implement the pro-natalist measures, it will doom future growth rates for decades. However, China *can* implement cultural changes to induce pro-natalism but since that involves deflating housing, that would throw China's economy into a recession now. Everything about China's present culture from the use of real estate as the main household asset, to the rat race for higher education, unbalanced gender norms, internal migration restrictions and long work hours depress birth rates - changing it would take years China doesn't have (since the number of women of childbearing age steadily decreases as well as urbanicity and income factors that decrease birth rates) and would harm the economy (deflating real estate, reducing working hours, etc)

The expensive pro-natalist measures you are talking about don't work. Europe has tried them for decades. China can bring in more authoritarian measures to correct low birth rates- e.g. restricting abortion, fining people or increasing taxes on people who don't have children after a certain age, etc. All have been proven to work.

What you're saying about real estate is true but equally applicable to the western world except maybe parts of the US/Canada. It's easy to have cheap land when your ancestors stole it from another nation.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

The expensive pro-natalist measures you are talking about don't work. Europe has tried them for decades. China can bring in more authoritarian measures to correct low birth rates- e.g. restricting abortion, fining people or increasing taxes on people who don't have children after a certain age, etc. All have been proven to work.

What you're saying about real estate is true but equally applicable to the western world except maybe parts of the US/Canada. It's easy to have cheap land when your ancestors stole it from another nation.

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Only 60% are homeowners. For the other 40%, in the past 10 years apartments have increased 28% in rent while declining in size by 5%.

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[9dashline]

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Only 60% are homeowners. For the other 40%, in the past 10 years apartments have increased 28% in rent while declining in size by 5%.

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Not that long ago they were making fun of China's empty high rises and "ghost cities"....

Yet the masses in America have been largely reduced to tent cities and trailer parks

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Forced to give up their dreams of a “real house,” first time home-buyers set their sights lower, and ex-homeowners muscled out of the market by Covid-19-related job losses have to do the same. The need is great enough that these once-derided mobile homes are now achieving mainstream respectability, according to USA Today – but profit-hungry private equity firms have been buying up stakes in the companies that own these trailer parks for years, going long on the collapse of the American dream.

Trailer trash no more
‘Manufactured homes’ house some 22 million Americans, according to the Manufactured Housing Institute. With prices running about half that of “normal” homes, and the average American family’s net worth either stagnating or declining as inflation soars and the stock market increasingly decouples from reality, the stigma long associated with living in these structures has, supposedly, begun to dissolve. Beggars, after all, can’t be choosers.

 

[dropout003]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1487879620221448193

today's "doomographers" remind me of malthusians of old just in reverse. I mean I can see Chinese scientists perfecting artificial embryo tech to mass "print" babies, the state can also raise them.

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[tygyg1111]

China doesn't even have a global top 10 pharmaceutical company so yes, I'm really going to be convinced by hyperbolic life sciences claims

Discussing mass printed babies at this point in time may be a bit far-fetched, however judging by the last 10 years of progress and also the effectiveness of China's Covid response , if there is a country that is able to make something like this happen effectively, on time and on budget it would be China

 

[Abominable]

They work. The big problem with Europe is that they aren't religious and simply don't desire children. Surveys of Chinese women show that they consistently have less children than they want and that is due to cultural norms elsewhere

Correct but they are also proven to cause discontent and have maleffects elsewhere

Lower costs of childrearing increase childbirths.

 

[Abominable]

They work. The big problem with Europe is that they aren't religious and simply don't desire children. Surveys of Chinese women show that they consistently have less children than they want and that is due to cultural norms elsewhere

When do they work? Care to give a single example? I can cite any number of western European countries that have tried and failed. All lead to a temporary rise in birth rates (still way below replacement), followed by continued declines.

Correct but they are also proven to cause discontent and have maleffects elsewhere

Proven how? You can't just say things without given examples.

Lower costs of childrearing increase childbirths.

You mean like China banning private tuition?

How do you propose to lower the costs of childrearing, and again, what country do you think is doing it better than China?

 

[Abominable]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1487879620221448193

Another graph with no zero Y axis. Not as dramatic as it appears when you take that into consideration.

It's not like people have disappeared. China's retirement age for men is 60, for women it is 55. In Japan it is 65, their growth in working force is because they have recently changed the retirement age. That is a temporary solution to the demographic problem, not a permanent one.

 

[BlackWindMnt]

Another graph with no zero Y axis. Not as dramatic as it appears when you take that into consideration.

It's not like people have disappeared. China's retirement age for men is 60, for women it is 55. In Japan it is 65, their growth in working force is because they have recently changed the retirement age. That is a temporary solution to the demographic problem, not a permanent one.

Dam here in the Netherlands pension age is 67.7 years.

 

[supercat]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1487879620221448193

My understanding is that total productivity = productivity per capita x the size of the labor force? So an increase in total productivity is still possible despite a drop in the size of labor force? The graph tells only half of the story.