China demographics thread.
- Thread starter gadgetcool5
- Start date
"In the European countries where encouraging parenthood has been effective, such as Sweden, the governments usually roll out various kinds of support measures in addition to generous financial benefits.
For instance, providing universal childcare institutions to help dual-earner families save time and energy for raising children; a guarantee of women’s employment rights; , etc.
From the experiences of other countries, it’s clear that alleviating women’s worries of the impact on their professional development brought about by having and raising children is critical for raising their interest in child-bearing."
Correct. Although I think the kitchen sink method should be tried, which involves spending a lot of money as well.
what are "middle income fiscal constraints"? China is a World Bank defined high income economy as of 2022.
It also has some of the along with the 2nd budget. In terms of . There's plenty of room to increase taxes or just print money and pay for it by exporting inflation.
1.
2. . Every single EU country has higher VAT (~20%) than China (13%). Even many African countries (18%) have higher VAT than China.
3. Yes. OK.
4. Money worth ~1/6 yearly income doesn't move the needle?
5. No it wouldn't as long as it was targetted at demographics that are unlikely to give birth.
6. Nope, outright increasing sales prices perfectly exports inflation while increasing revenue at home. This is shown right now where exports are at record levels, prices for major industrial products are at record levels, yet exchange rate is also rising.
You said some of the highest VAT taxes. This is factually false given there are more countries with higher VAT tax than China than countries with lower VAT tax. There is no definition of "some of the highest" where the subject in question is lower than 50th percentile. It would be like saying an 92% A student has "some of the lowest scores in the class" because there are a few students with 95%s and more than 50% of students have 70% C.
Then furthermore you have to prove that taxes actually reduce TFR. Many African countries have higher VAT taxes and higher TFR, how do you explain that with your tax theory? In addition South Korea, Hong Kong, etc. have lower VAT tax rate than China yet they have even lower TFR, further proving that VAT taxes have little correlation with TFR.
Then you claim Hispanics value fertility yet many such as Brazil, Colombia, Uruguay, Chile and Cuba and even Mexico is only exactly at replacement. So there is furthermore no proof for your cultural value theory.
Not just lower VAT than Europe. Not just a few African countries. A huge list of them. You are outright factually wrong here.
Fiscal transfers to demographics with fertility potential while raising tax rates on demographics or entities with low fertility potential is not contradictory. Not all demographics have equal fertility potential.
LATAM having higher birth rates than CAN/USA doesn't mean anything if they're also below replacement except for a few ultrapoor central American countries.
I don't see the problem. China should do what's best for China. First of all, it's not like China is going to outright disappear in a few years. Yes, it will take a hit in the population in the short run, but that is inevitable anyway. Therefore, China can start the process of changing its culture in all the things you mentioned today and this will be in its best interest even if it does not have an effect in the short run. And second, yes the economy will take a hit in the short run but as you mentioned, it will save the economy in the long run. Further, there are other measures like loosening monetary policy that can be used to support the economy in the short run. Third, China can raise taxes to reduce fiscal restraints and redistribute them to pro-natalist policy. According to the World Bank, China's tax revenue as % of GDP in 2018 was only 9%, lower than the East Asia or South Asia average and much lower than the EU. And as @FairAndUnbiased pointed out, its VAT is lower than the EU or Africa, and it has little income tax and no property tax. All of which can be raised. So I don't know why you want to insist that China has "one of the highest" tax rates in the world. Further, it is important to point out that money spent for pro-natalist measures go into the pockets of Chinese families who then will spend the money and stimulate the economy, so it is not as if the money is lost. It's important to keep in mind that there doesn't need to be a magic bullet that solves everything, rather if every policy is incremental in effect and reduces the problem by a marginal amount, that's already a step forward.
In my view, most articles present this problem as unrelentingly bleak but in reality there are plenty of things that China can do to stabilize its birth rate, ranging from fiscal measures to legal and cultural measures. And it is known what those things are. All it takes is the will to act boldly and decisively.
broadsword
Brigadier
@gadgetcool5
You should keep your answer short. He's not going to read your entire reply. So he will repeat his trope in his next reincarnation.
You should keep your answer short. He's not going to read your entire reply. So he will repeat his trope in his next reincarnation.