China demographics thread.

supercat

Major
Productivity is always an individual measure; national output is productivity * total workers but if total workers is decreasing, you need to increase productivity simply to break even
That’s my point. You can still increase total productivity by increase productivity per capita.
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
Israel and Hungary have managed to increase birth rates by changing cultural norms surrounding childbirth and childbearing.
Hungary? When and what do you claim they did?

Here is a graph of Hungary's fertility rates

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Point out where you think pro-natal measures were a success. What cultural change has happened in Hungary that I'm not aware of?

Israel has never had its fertility rate drop below replacement levels. Their "success" is the fact that it's an apartheid state and the Jews are worried about being outpopulated by Arabs. Not to mention the massive economic largess that comes from the US/EU. It works for them but I don't see how you would replicate that in China or anywhere else other than somewhere like South Africa.
Lifestyle norms have some effect but are smaller. You see this in questions of asking women how many children they want to have (lifestyle), they should have (broader norms) and how many children they are likely to have (now money is limited)
I don't understand your point here. Are you arguing that Chinese don't want to have children because they can't afford it, or that they culturally don't want to? Having to pay for private tuition is a cost, not a lifestyle norm.
High taxes don't create malcontent?
Taxing people for not having children won't lead to a colour revolution in China if that's what you're thinking. You're just putting out blanket statements with no knowledge of China or Chinese culture.

China had a one child policy for decades with no "malcontent". Plenty of countries have laws heavily restricting abortion, including some states in your own country.

Some people may be unhappy, but most will just have children to avoid the tax.
Yes but ultimately, that's a small part of China's household budgetary expense. The big one is housing and we've seen in 2H how mildly touching housing risks imploding the entire economy of China.

The main cost would be housing but China's really stuck in a rut here. Obviously, Israel is doing it better than China as well as a few rural US states with high birth rates (Utah and Georgia)
The one thing I would agree with you. You seem to be implying it is only an issue with China and not one with the wider world. Fortunately the advantage of a non-market economy is that the housing market can be requisitioned by the government at any time.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
It's a problem for the wider world but one that hits China especially hard since China can't brain drain its way out of the problem
More and more Chinese return to China and that's all China wants. The solution is never to brain drain as Chinese power comes from Chinese brains, but the solution is automation and technology so that a leaner, more educated workforce can more than replace brute force labor provided by young bodies. China doesn't need a larger population; it needs to do more with what it has and it is doing just that.
and the deceleration in China is sharper than literally anywhere else
The deceleration of what? Where's the data? Sounds like you exaggerate as always.
 

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
Meanwhile, China will lose at least hundred million people working age people. Sure lol.
Nah. Lol.
China's # of births change compared to year prior
2018: -12%
2019: -3%
2020: -18%
2021: -12%

Furthermore, given that 2H21 births completely fell off a cliff and gestation takes 9 months, that should indicate yet *another* double digit decline for 2022 all the while the number of women of childbearing age rapidly declines
That data is as accurate as your IP address is truthful.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
The Chinese diaspora is 40 million total and that includes a substantial amount of people that have no connection to China outside of grandparents that have long died.
They have Chinese blood; they see what happens to Asians in America. My grandparents are dead. I love China whenever I look in the mirror.
Meanwhile, China will lose at least hundred million people working age people. Sure lol.
What? What timeline and whose prediction?
China's # of births change compared to year prior
2018: -12%
2019: -3%
2020: -18%
2021: -12%
Furthermore, given that 2H21 births completely fell off a cliff and gestation takes 9 months, that should indicate yet *another* double digit decline for 2022 all the while the number of women of childbearing age rapidly declines
You said that this problem is worst in China than anywhere else. You need to provide data for everywhere else because the general global trend is decline. And that includes places like Japan, South Korea, etc... And provide the source.

But you know what, the CCP has many more tools than a typical democracy to influence its people and those tools are just coming into use. With them and the rise of automation and education, China doesn't need nearly as large a population to achieve the same or more. The upside is that with a reduced population, Chinese quality of life and resources per capita expand, which helps it return more overseas Chinese talent.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Yes, they keep trying to migrate over to the US. China-based applications for US employment greencards are hopelessly backlogged.
And the lazy stay while the useful return. It's always been like this except before, there was a time when no one wanted to return but now, most grads do.
It's written into the stars.
Puahahahaha, don't make me spit my drink on my computer! China pundits are so desperate they look to the stars for anything hopeful LOLOL
Just look at the differences in births between the 1950s and 1960s (people exiting the workforce) and the 1990s and 2000s (people entering the workforce). The projections have been done by everyone: the UNDP, etc.
By what source or calculation did you get a least 100 million from?? The stars? LOL
All these tools couldn't stop year after year of double digit decline
They're just starting. Just less than a year ago, China had the 3 child policy and then efforts to reduce educational costs by clamping down on test prep. There's downward momentum to reverse first but you know, which China's massive population, we've got a huge buffer to play around with.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Lmao, no. Most grads want to stay in the US based on both survey data (the NSF Survey of Earned Doctorates, Intent to Stay) and from the endless OPT applications from China
LMAO, we've already done this and you lost in your other alt account too. The trend favors China.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

And many other members posted other articles too.
Just compare birth cohorts. A bunch of people have done this relatively easy calculation.
What is it? The stars? Other people? Show me how easy this calculation is. LOL All I see is dodging the question of where you got that numbers. Sounds made up.
This time it will magically work after decades of it not working (tell me when China actually implements a property tax lol)
China spent decades trying to prevent a population explosion with the one child policy. China spent a year or so trying to reverse the trend. Only in the last few months did it go beyond the 2 child policy. I didn't know you were so ignorant on this... it'd be awesome if you could magically come to a debate educated next time.
 
Last edited:
Top