escobar
Brigadier
He was wrong...
China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread
- Thread starter peace_lover
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He was wrong...
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
Wrong location should be the end of this thread
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escobar
Brigadier
The bill gertz report didn't talk about a salvo launch. There is a great article from a chinese guy about JL-2 development with all detailed tests launch:
Schumacher
Senior Member
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
Here is what some in congress have to say on this test.There are some inaccuracy in this Article the HTV2 test is only partial success both test were ended prematurely. This shows the sophistication of Chinese missile engineering. If this test lead to production missile it will make the SM3 obsolete over night. Actually the ground work for near space missile technology was pioneer by Qian Xuesen years ago
The old man must be smiling in heaven.There is no sweeter revenge than to see your work haunted your tormentor
Apparently the program was headed by mild manner lady engineer who spent sometime in MIT Project 2049 has an article on her long time ago I did posted in this thread
The HTV-2's first flight was launched on 22 April 2010.[5] The HTV-2 glider was to fly 4,800 miles (7,700 km) across the Pacific to Kwajalein at Mach 20.[6] The HTV-2 was boosted by a Minotaur IV Lite rocket launched from Vandenberg Air Force Base, California. The flight plan called for the craft to separate from the launch vehicle, level out, and glide above the Pacific at Mach 20.[1][3] Contact had been lost with the vehicle nine minutes into the 30-minute mission.[3][7][8] In mid-November DARPA stated that the first test flight had ended when the computer autopilot had "commanded flight termination" after it had begun to roll violently.[9]
A second flight was initially scheduled to be launched on August 10, 2011, but bad weather forced a delay.[10] The flight was launched the following day, on 11 August 2011. The unmanned Falcon HTV-2 successfully separated from the booster and entered the mission's glide phase, but again lost contact with control about nine minutes into its planned 30-minute Mach 20 glide flight. Initial reports indicated it purposely impacted the Pacific Ocean along its planned flight path as a safety precaution
Congress Reacts to Chinese Hypersonic Missile Test
by Mike Hoffman January 14, 2014
hypersonic armyThe Chinese military executed a hypersonic missile test last week and three members of Congress are already saying the Chinese “appear to be leaping ahead of us” in regards to developing the technology.
It’s hard to tell if they are correct as few details have been released on the test and how it compares to the advances made by the U.S. military, which has executed multiple hypersonic tests in the past few years.
A hypersonic missile must travel between Mach 5 and Mach 10, or 3,840–7,680 miles per hour in order to be considered hypersonic.
U.S., China, India and Russia have all researched hypersonic missiles in order to pierce missile defense systems not built to intercept such fast moving missiles. Today’s cruise missiles travel about 500 to 600 miles per hour.
Republican House Armed Services Committee members Rep. Howard P. “Buck” McKeon, Rep. Randy Forbes and Rep. Mike Rogers issued a joint statement Tuesday saying they are concerned in light of hearing about the Chinese test about America’s ability to maintain its technological advantage with the level of budget cuts that Congress has approved.
“While round after round of defense cuts have knocked America’s technological advantage on its back, the Chinese and other competitor nations push towards military parity with the United States; in some cases, as in this one, they appear to be leaping ahead of us,” the lawmakers said in the statement. “This situation does nothing to support peaceful coexistence in the Pacific. We have dithered for three decades now, delaying badly needed replacement equipment for our troops, relying on hardware that was built during the Reagan years.”
It’s unclear how much the committee members know about the test versus what information exists in the media as all three attended a closed committee hearing Tuesday. However, for the Chinese to have leaped ahead of the U.S. on hypersonic missile technology, it means their missile test must have been as successful as the one flown by the U.S. last May.
During that test, the hypersonic missile tested by the U.S. Air Force reached a maximum speed of Mach 5.1 at 60,000 feet after the missile was released from a B-52H Stratofortress.
Called the X-51 WaveRider built by Boeing Co., the test was declared by the Air Force as the “longest air breathing hypersonic flight ever.” The test was the fourth and final mission of the nine-year $300 million project.
The WaveRider program has run out of money and the Air Force is waiting to see when a follow-on hypersonic missile program will be approved. Officials have said they hope to deploy unmanned hypersonic weapons as early as 2025.
The test executed by the Chinese appears to be different than the one completed by the U.S. Air Force in May. China has reportedly set up programs to develop both a scramjet that could be launched from a bomber and one launched from an intercontinental ballistic missile.
The test conducted last week by the Chinese was by a hypersonic missile launched from an intercontinental ballistic missile traveling over China. Under this scenario, the hypersonic weapon was launched from the ICBM before it returned to Earth. It’s unclear if the hypersonic missile hit a target or the speed the Chinese had hoped.
In 2011, the Army completed a similar test when it launched a three stage booster rocket equipped with the Advanced Hypersonic Weapon. The AHW glide vehicle reached hypersonic speeds after it was launched from Hawaii. The missile never left the Earth’s atmosphere.
Again, it’s hard to say if the Chinese hypersonic test was more advanced based on the lawmakers’ statement.
Read more:
Not only this flat trajectory hard to intercept It has increase the range by 32% Mr Unknown at CDF did a great summary on the essence of this new missile, I quoted here. This development make J 20 a child play. I didn't expect this missile to be tested that fast.really surprise
"Here is the excerpt regarding hypersonic boost glide technology from the paper linked above. Apparently not only would it make ABM penetration easier, it could also potentially boost the effective range of ballistic missile munitions by up to 32%. Imagine the possibilities if the PLA can fully exploit this methodology & apply this to its entire IRBM & ICBM arsenal... evil smokin GotoBat"
EDIT: Kudos to ol' grampa Xian Xuesen.
Beyond the ASBM
The ASBM program is likely only one facet of a broader and longer term approach to a more diversified extended range strike capability. Authoritative Chinese aerospace journals indicate more than passing interest in precision strike capabilities that could enable the PLA to neutralize U.S. Air Force and Navy runways, logistics facilities, and command and control targets on Guam. Further in the decade, there could be a more capable follow-on.
As a starter, there is a growing body of evidence that China is examining alternative launch modes for an ASBM. Space and missile engineers have conducted a range of feasibility studies regarding air and submarine-launched conventional ballistic missiles. CASIC-led preliminary research into air launched solid-fueled vehicles is said to have begun in 2000.158 Airborne platforms are viewed as fuel-efficient since launch would be from a high altitude so the missile could enjoy velocity benefits. Aerospace industry executives have outlined a conceptual design for a 1 meter diameter solid motor that could lift a 50kg microsatellite into a 500km altitude orbit from a converted B-6 bomber.159 While not confirmed, some indications exist that some testing has taken place. Another variant, similar to a winged cruise ballistic missile, is for near space flight.160 PLA Navy aviation analysts have assessed the utility of air-launched ASBMs in countering the Phalanx close-in weapon system (CIWS).161
PLA Navy and aerospace industry engineers have advocated development of a submarine launched ASBM.162 PLA and aerospace industry studies advocate a mix of strike assets to counter aircraft carrier battle groups, including both ballistic and extended range cruise missiles.163 One study from 2001 compares the various options and concludes that the priority should be submarine-launched ballistic missiles for striking aircraft carrier battle groups, military bases and other critical nodes in the region.164
Beyond the ASBM: A Boost-Glide Ballistic Missile
A growing number of engineers have been calling for a modification to existing ballistic missile designs toward ones that adopt characteristics of both ballistic and cruise missiles. As two aerospace engineers put it:
“The traditional ballistic reentry mode of reentry vehicle cannot meet the demand of the new battle environment. A new-style lift re-entry weapon platform is an optimal key to solve this problem.”165
Chinese engineers appear to be conducting preliminary research into a conceptual design for a follow-on ASBM missile variant that adopts a boost-glide [zhutui-huaxiang; 助推-滑翔] trajectory. Instead of flying on a normal ballistic path that takes the missile into space beforereturning to earth, the boost-glide missile skips in and out of near space, at altitudes between 20 and 100km.166 In its initial stage of flight, sources indicate that the flight vehicle would reach hypersonic speeds of Mach 8 to Mach 12.167 Because the missile remains in the atmosphere for most of its flight, the system blurs the distinction between a cruise and ballistic missile.
One benefit of a boost-glide system would be to complicate mid-course missile defenses, such as the SM-3 by flying below the minimum altitude at which some missile defense interceptors can hit their target and maneuvering in flight. A second is to extend the range of existing ballistic missiles. One study, for example, asserts that a basic boost-glide capability would extend the range of a missile by 31.2 percent.168
The boost-glide concept was first developed by Eugene Sanger and other German aerospace engineers in the 1930s and refined by Dr. Qian Xuesen, the father of China’s space and missile program, while at the U.S. Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in 1951. Because it remains in the atmosphere for a good part of its flight, a missile on what CASIC Third Academy designers refer to as a “Qian Xuesen trajectory” [钱学森弹道] would adopt hybrid characteristics of both ballistic and cruise missiles.169 In Sanger’s concept, a launch vehicle would propel itself to the upper atmosphere then glide with no power until it hit denser air. It then would use kinetic energy to skip off the atmosphere back up to higher altitudes, similar to a stone skipping along water. Each skip reduces the available energy allowing the missile to glide towards its target. Sanger calculated that a missile launched from Nazi Germany would require three skips to strike a target in the eastern United States. The Russians also reportedly flight-tested a similar boost-glide vehicle in 2005.170
A conceptual diagram of boost-glide skip trajectory from a Chinese aerospace industry study. The graph depicts the missile’s skipping trajectory in and out of the atmosphere and space.
Source: Hu Zhengdong et.al., “Trajectory Performance Analysis and Optimization Design for Hypersonic Skip Vehicle,” Journal of Astronautics, 2008 (1), pp. 66-71.
Chinese industry publications indicate interests in a boost-glide capability and perhaps onward to a CAV, similar to that carried out under the United States’ Prompt Global Strike program.171 The CASC First Academy, CASIC Third Academy and PLA designers have conducted feasibility studies of CAVs, and appear to believe China could overcome the technical obstacles to fielding such as system.172 In one study, CASC First Academy engineers noted use of a ramjet engine for the CAV and cited issues associated with heating and use of infrared terminal sensors when going after sea-based and land-based targets. After detailed analysis, First Academy designers were able to identify 10 key technologies that are needed to successfully field a CAV for global precision strikes. Assuming the key technical issues can be resolved; engineers believe that a Chinese CAV could enter the R&D phase in the 12th Five Year Plan.173 Another study estimates that unit cost for a CAV in the United States would be U.S. $1.5 million, and significantly less in China.174 Another group assessed that a Chinese CAV capable of global strike missions is feasible.175
Beyond the ASBM: Hypersonic Cruise Vehicles
The PRC aerospace industry is investing R&D funds into increasingly capable cruise missiles.176
There are indications that an anti-ship variant of the DH-10 land attack cruise missile with a range of 3,000km may be under development. Beginning in 2002, CASIC Third Academy designers and engineers have argued their case in prominent, authoritative industry journals that cruise missiles could be adjusted to fulfill the requirements of longer range precision strikes – at least out to 8,000km – against a broad range of targets, including ships at sea.177
Analysis was conducted to compare the operational effectiveness of cruise and ballistic missiles, presumably as part of a business campaign to capture the lead for the strategic counter-carrier program. However, to ensure the ability to penetrate maritime defenses, designers highlight the need for new propulsion systems, reducing the missile’s radar cross- section, increasing maneuverability, and even exploiting advantages in near space.178
Perhaps building on an extended range or counter-carrier DH-10 program, China’s defense R&D community also appears to be investing in conceptual design work on hypersonic cruise vehicles (HCV). Although concepts vary, the U.S. HCV program is a USAF/DARPA effort to develop an air-breathing platform that could deliver a 5,000kg payload for distances up to 17,000km in two hours at speeds up to Mach 6, travelling at near-space altitudes. Similarly, one Chinese study published the results of modeling and simulation of a scramjet-powered vehicle with a range of between 1,000 to 2,000km, flying toward its target at an altitude of 25 to 30km and speed of Mach 6.179 Another study described a HCV adopting a skipping trajectory with an upper altitude of 60km and lower of 30km.180 In addition to addressing specific guidance, navigation, and control issues, Chinese aerospace engineers have also been carrying out basic research into an air-turbo rocket propulsion system, an air-breathing system that combines elements from both turbojets and rocket engines. Simulations validated one design that operates at speeds up to Mach 4 and altitudes of up to 11km.181
The old man must be smiling in heaven.There is no sweeter revenge than to see your work haunted your tormentor
Apparently the program was headed by mild manner lady engineer who spent sometime in MIT Project 2049 has an article on her long time ago I did posted in this thread
The HTV-2's first flight was launched on 22 April 2010.[5] The HTV-2 glider was to fly 4,800 miles (7,700 km) across the Pacific to Kwajalein at Mach 20.[6] The HTV-2 was boosted by a Minotaur IV Lite rocket launched from Vandenberg Air Force Base, California. The flight plan called for the craft to separate from the launch vehicle, level out, and glide above the Pacific at Mach 20.[1][3] Contact had been lost with the vehicle nine minutes into the 30-minute mission.[3][7][8] In mid-November DARPA stated that the first test flight had ended when the computer autopilot had "commanded flight termination" after it had begun to roll violently.[9]
A second flight was initially scheduled to be launched on August 10, 2011, but bad weather forced a delay.[10] The flight was launched the following day, on 11 August 2011. The unmanned Falcon HTV-2 successfully separated from the booster and entered the mission's glide phase, but again lost contact with control about nine minutes into its planned 30-minute Mach 20 glide flight. Initial reports indicated it purposely impacted the Pacific Ocean along its planned flight path as a safety precaution
Congress Reacts to Chinese Hypersonic Missile Test
by Mike Hoffman January 14, 2014
hypersonic armyThe Chinese military executed a hypersonic missile test last week and three members of Congress are already saying the Chinese “appear to be leaping ahead of us” in regards to developing the technology.
It’s hard to tell if they are correct as few details have been released on the test and how it compares to the advances made by the U.S. military, which has executed multiple hypersonic tests in the past few years.
A hypersonic missile must travel between Mach 5 and Mach 10, or 3,840–7,680 miles per hour in order to be considered hypersonic.
U.S., China, India and Russia have all researched hypersonic missiles in order to pierce missile defense systems not built to intercept such fast moving missiles. Today’s cruise missiles travel about 500 to 600 miles per hour.
Republican House Armed Services Committee members Rep. Howard P. “Buck” McKeon, Rep. Randy Forbes and Rep. Mike Rogers issued a joint statement Tuesday saying they are concerned in light of hearing about the Chinese test about America’s ability to maintain its technological advantage with the level of budget cuts that Congress has approved.
“While round after round of defense cuts have knocked America’s technological advantage on its back, the Chinese and other competitor nations push towards military parity with the United States; in some cases, as in this one, they appear to be leaping ahead of us,” the lawmakers said in the statement. “This situation does nothing to support peaceful coexistence in the Pacific. We have dithered for three decades now, delaying badly needed replacement equipment for our troops, relying on hardware that was built during the Reagan years.”
It’s unclear how much the committee members know about the test versus what information exists in the media as all three attended a closed committee hearing Tuesday. However, for the Chinese to have leaped ahead of the U.S. on hypersonic missile technology, it means their missile test must have been as successful as the one flown by the U.S. last May.
During that test, the hypersonic missile tested by the U.S. Air Force reached a maximum speed of Mach 5.1 at 60,000 feet after the missile was released from a B-52H Stratofortress.
Called the X-51 WaveRider built by Boeing Co., the test was declared by the Air Force as the “longest air breathing hypersonic flight ever.” The test was the fourth and final mission of the nine-year $300 million project.
The WaveRider program has run out of money and the Air Force is waiting to see when a follow-on hypersonic missile program will be approved. Officials have said they hope to deploy unmanned hypersonic weapons as early as 2025.
The test executed by the Chinese appears to be different than the one completed by the U.S. Air Force in May. China has reportedly set up programs to develop both a scramjet that could be launched from a bomber and one launched from an intercontinental ballistic missile.
The test conducted last week by the Chinese was by a hypersonic missile launched from an intercontinental ballistic missile traveling over China. Under this scenario, the hypersonic weapon was launched from the ICBM before it returned to Earth. It’s unclear if the hypersonic missile hit a target or the speed the Chinese had hoped.
In 2011, the Army completed a similar test when it launched a three stage booster rocket equipped with the Advanced Hypersonic Weapon. The AHW glide vehicle reached hypersonic speeds after it was launched from Hawaii. The missile never left the Earth’s atmosphere.
Again, it’s hard to say if the Chinese hypersonic test was more advanced based on the lawmakers’ statement.
Read more:
Not only this flat trajectory hard to intercept It has increase the range by 32% Mr Unknown at CDF did a great summary on the essence of this new missile, I quoted here. This development make J 20 a child play. I didn't expect this missile to be tested that fast.really surprise
"Here is the excerpt regarding hypersonic boost glide technology from the paper linked above. Apparently not only would it make ABM penetration easier, it could also potentially boost the effective range of ballistic missile munitions by up to 32%. Imagine the possibilities if the PLA can fully exploit this methodology & apply this to its entire IRBM & ICBM arsenal... evil smokin GotoBat"
EDIT: Kudos to ol' grampa Xian Xuesen.
Beyond the ASBM
The ASBM program is likely only one facet of a broader and longer term approach to a more diversified extended range strike capability. Authoritative Chinese aerospace journals indicate more than passing interest in precision strike capabilities that could enable the PLA to neutralize U.S. Air Force and Navy runways, logistics facilities, and command and control targets on Guam. Further in the decade, there could be a more capable follow-on.
As a starter, there is a growing body of evidence that China is examining alternative launch modes for an ASBM. Space and missile engineers have conducted a range of feasibility studies regarding air and submarine-launched conventional ballistic missiles. CASIC-led preliminary research into air launched solid-fueled vehicles is said to have begun in 2000.158 Airborne platforms are viewed as fuel-efficient since launch would be from a high altitude so the missile could enjoy velocity benefits. Aerospace industry executives have outlined a conceptual design for a 1 meter diameter solid motor that could lift a 50kg microsatellite into a 500km altitude orbit from a converted B-6 bomber.159 While not confirmed, some indications exist that some testing has taken place. Another variant, similar to a winged cruise ballistic missile, is for near space flight.160 PLA Navy aviation analysts have assessed the utility of air-launched ASBMs in countering the Phalanx close-in weapon system (CIWS).161
PLA Navy and aerospace industry engineers have advocated development of a submarine launched ASBM.162 PLA and aerospace industry studies advocate a mix of strike assets to counter aircraft carrier battle groups, including both ballistic and extended range cruise missiles.163 One study from 2001 compares the various options and concludes that the priority should be submarine-launched ballistic missiles for striking aircraft carrier battle groups, military bases and other critical nodes in the region.164
Beyond the ASBM: A Boost-Glide Ballistic Missile
A growing number of engineers have been calling for a modification to existing ballistic missile designs toward ones that adopt characteristics of both ballistic and cruise missiles. As two aerospace engineers put it:
“The traditional ballistic reentry mode of reentry vehicle cannot meet the demand of the new battle environment. A new-style lift re-entry weapon platform is an optimal key to solve this problem.”165
Chinese engineers appear to be conducting preliminary research into a conceptual design for a follow-on ASBM missile variant that adopts a boost-glide [zhutui-huaxiang; 助推-滑翔] trajectory. Instead of flying on a normal ballistic path that takes the missile into space beforereturning to earth, the boost-glide missile skips in and out of near space, at altitudes between 20 and 100km.166 In its initial stage of flight, sources indicate that the flight vehicle would reach hypersonic speeds of Mach 8 to Mach 12.167 Because the missile remains in the atmosphere for most of its flight, the system blurs the distinction between a cruise and ballistic missile.
One benefit of a boost-glide system would be to complicate mid-course missile defenses, such as the SM-3 by flying below the minimum altitude at which some missile defense interceptors can hit their target and maneuvering in flight. A second is to extend the range of existing ballistic missiles. One study, for example, asserts that a basic boost-glide capability would extend the range of a missile by 31.2 percent.168
The boost-glide concept was first developed by Eugene Sanger and other German aerospace engineers in the 1930s and refined by Dr. Qian Xuesen, the father of China’s space and missile program, while at the U.S. Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in 1951. Because it remains in the atmosphere for a good part of its flight, a missile on what CASIC Third Academy designers refer to as a “Qian Xuesen trajectory” [钱学森弹道] would adopt hybrid characteristics of both ballistic and cruise missiles.169 In Sanger’s concept, a launch vehicle would propel itself to the upper atmosphere then glide with no power until it hit denser air. It then would use kinetic energy to skip off the atmosphere back up to higher altitudes, similar to a stone skipping along water. Each skip reduces the available energy allowing the missile to glide towards its target. Sanger calculated that a missile launched from Nazi Germany would require three skips to strike a target in the eastern United States. The Russians also reportedly flight-tested a similar boost-glide vehicle in 2005.170
A conceptual diagram of boost-glide skip trajectory from a Chinese aerospace industry study. The graph depicts the missile’s skipping trajectory in and out of the atmosphere and space.
Source: Hu Zhengdong et.al., “Trajectory Performance Analysis and Optimization Design for Hypersonic Skip Vehicle,” Journal of Astronautics, 2008 (1), pp. 66-71.
Chinese industry publications indicate interests in a boost-glide capability and perhaps onward to a CAV, similar to that carried out under the United States’ Prompt Global Strike program.171 The CASC First Academy, CASIC Third Academy and PLA designers have conducted feasibility studies of CAVs, and appear to believe China could overcome the technical obstacles to fielding such as system.172 In one study, CASC First Academy engineers noted use of a ramjet engine for the CAV and cited issues associated with heating and use of infrared terminal sensors when going after sea-based and land-based targets. After detailed analysis, First Academy designers were able to identify 10 key technologies that are needed to successfully field a CAV for global precision strikes. Assuming the key technical issues can be resolved; engineers believe that a Chinese CAV could enter the R&D phase in the 12th Five Year Plan.173 Another study estimates that unit cost for a CAV in the United States would be U.S. $1.5 million, and significantly less in China.174 Another group assessed that a Chinese CAV capable of global strike missions is feasible.175
Beyond the ASBM: Hypersonic Cruise Vehicles
The PRC aerospace industry is investing R&D funds into increasingly capable cruise missiles.176
There are indications that an anti-ship variant of the DH-10 land attack cruise missile with a range of 3,000km may be under development. Beginning in 2002, CASIC Third Academy designers and engineers have argued their case in prominent, authoritative industry journals that cruise missiles could be adjusted to fulfill the requirements of longer range precision strikes – at least out to 8,000km – against a broad range of targets, including ships at sea.177
Analysis was conducted to compare the operational effectiveness of cruise and ballistic missiles, presumably as part of a business campaign to capture the lead for the strategic counter-carrier program. However, to ensure the ability to penetrate maritime defenses, designers highlight the need for new propulsion systems, reducing the missile’s radar cross- section, increasing maneuverability, and even exploiting advantages in near space.178
Perhaps building on an extended range or counter-carrier DH-10 program, China’s defense R&D community also appears to be investing in conceptual design work on hypersonic cruise vehicles (HCV). Although concepts vary, the U.S. HCV program is a USAF/DARPA effort to develop an air-breathing platform that could deliver a 5,000kg payload for distances up to 17,000km in two hours at speeds up to Mach 6, travelling at near-space altitudes. Similarly, one Chinese study published the results of modeling and simulation of a scramjet-powered vehicle with a range of between 1,000 to 2,000km, flying toward its target at an altitude of 25 to 30km and speed of Mach 6.179 Another study described a HCV adopting a skipping trajectory with an upper altitude of 60km and lower of 30km.180 In addition to addressing specific guidance, navigation, and control issues, Chinese aerospace engineers have also been carrying out basic research into an air-turbo rocket propulsion system, an air-breathing system that combines elements from both turbojets and rocket engines. Simulations validated one design that operates at speeds up to Mach 4 and altitudes of up to 11km.181
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More like they're just trying to make the congress give more funds for the military....
broadsword
Brigadier
It's safe to say if the test was a failure, it would have been picked up by intelligence.
AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
The Pentagon must give Gertz tidbits so he can write for a politically-minded purpose for them.
It's been debated on whether China has tested the ASBM because the US would've detected it. But why not test by stages? People are looking for a full-scale test. Part of the testing could've been air-launched and if that's the case you could see why there would be speculation of an air-launched ASBM being developed.
It's been debated on whether China has tested the ASBM because the US would've detected it. But why not test by stages? People are looking for a full-scale test. Part of the testing could've been air-launched and if that's the case you could see why there would be speculation of an air-launched ASBM being developed.
escobar
Brigadier
It would be a great success if the chinese were able to control the flight of this vehicule at hypersonic speeds. But we can't know that...
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