China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

[antiterror13]

I don't see any evidence that China has more WGPu than when it stopped production in the '90s. It's difficult to produce Pu in secret since reactors require cooling and that's generally conspicuous. However, that doesn't exclude other routes like purchasing it from Russia or laser isotope separation of civilian reactor waste. In addition, Pu is not strictly required for a viable bomb. Pu is used in one small part of the bomb (the primary stage) and a small quantity is used (2kg); it's replaceable by U-235 or composite uranium/plutonium cores.

Thanks. It is interesting if Russia did sell Pu to China

According to this report (which I don't know the level of credibility here), China only have 14 tons of HEU and 2.9 tons of plutonium
China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

 

[Kalec]

Some discussion about JL-3 from 094 thread

That's some US admiral's incorrect presumption. The newer 09-IVs can launch JL-2A missiles, which are JL-2s improved with better propellants, lighter body, and a 3 MIRV configuration.

My thought exactly, but I haven't seen any concrete evidence of any MIRV deployment on Chinese SLBM.

The new SLBM JL-3 was previously rumored to be developed by CASIC, which hasn't made any long-range missiles for decades. The JL-3 was rumored to be based on CASIC's Kuaizhou-11, a solid rocket with a diameter of 2.2m. But some rumours also say that JL-3 is actually being developed by CASC with a different diameter.


The problem is that neither of them sounds plausible for a few reasons:

For CASIC
1. It has never manufactured any strategic missiles since they handed over JL-2 development to CASC in 1980s. The last large missile made by CASIC was JL-1.

2. Kuaizhou-11 failed on its maiden flight and has never come back on mission since then, labelled as "retired" in Long Lehao's presentation. Though later clarified and "debooooked" by Kuaizhou, yet they are still not coming back any time soon.


For CASC
1. It doesn't have a proper motor, at least publicly known, suitable for SLBM. SLBM has strict length-diameter limit unlike ICBM, first stage around 6 meters and diameter less than 2.3 meters. There was also rumor that CASC has a secret missile project based on 2.25m, but no actual evidence to back it up.

2. 320 silo needed to be filled with ICBMs, how much production/design/test capacity CASC still has for new SLBM. The formal prospect published by CASC solid rocket department is to develop 6 core engines in next 5 years and achieve 10 major breakthrough. It doesn't look like there are ICBM and SLBM simultaneously under development.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

The Pentagon officially rejects the notion of rulling out the use of nuclear bombs against non-nuclear threats.

That means it is entirely possible for the US to deploy nuclear weapons against China, even if China only limits the theater of war to just across the strait and around Taiwan itself. Remember that we are facing a relentless, ruthless, desperate and maniac enemy.

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China should be fully prepared to fight an all-out nuclear war with the United States over Taiwan, win the war, and survive the war.

 

[Nobo]

The Pentagon officially rejects the notion of rulling out the use of nuclear bombs against non-nuclear threats.

That means it is entirely possible for the US to deploy nuclear weapons against China, even if China only limits the theater of war to just across the strait and around Taiwan itself. Remember that we are facing a relentless, ruthless, desperate and maniac enemy.

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China should be fully prepared to fight an all-out nuclear war with the United States over Taiwan, win the war, and survive the war.

And so, MAD is an outdated stupid concept. You need to have overwhelmingly overwhelming nuclear capacity for either complete deterrence or complete extinction of an adversary,a concept i call EAE -Ensured Adversary Extinction. Any launch by enemy, must be the end of enemy. I would suggest China to have 8000-10000 nukes at least.

 

[tankphobia]

The Pentagon officially rejects the notion of rulling out the use of nuclear bombs against non-nuclear threats.

That means it is entirely possible for the US to deploy nuclear weapons against China, even if China only limits the theater of war to just across the strait and around Taiwan itself. Remember that we are facing a relentless, ruthless, desperate and maniac enemy.

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China should be fully prepared to fight an all-out nuclear war with the United States over Taiwan, win the war, and survive the war.

Could it be another case of escalate to de-escalate? Obviously with Taiwan being a non-negotiable part of Chinese interest, that notion wanes every day and we move closer towards nuclear war.

 

[Kalec]

The new NPR eliminates “hedge against an uncertain future” as a formal role of nuclear weapons and nuclear SLCM projects.

It is rather funny that it took away the hedge part because it was intended to “deterrence and can help reduce potential adversaries’ confidence that they can gain advantage through a ‘break out’ or expansion of nuclear capabilities.“ In the context of Chinese nuclear expansion, the so-called "deterrence" part failed but US just chickens out, though de-escalating in nuclear arm control.

If I understand it correctly, it means that US publicly excludes option to increase nuclear superpower threshold by re-deploying more warheads on Trident and ICBM. It is sensible for US because I don't really think US can win a nuclear arm race with China and Russia.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1585675172945739776

 

[SEAD]

Some discussion about JL-3 from 094 thread

My thought exactly, but I haven't seen any concrete evidence of any MIRV deployment on Chinese SLBM.

The new SLBM JL-3 was previously rumored to be developed by CASIC, which hasn't made any long-range missiles for decades. The JL-3 was rumored to be based on CASIC's Kuaizhou-11, a solid rocket with a diameter of 2.2m. But some rumours also say that JL-3 is actually being developed by CASC with a different diameter.


The problem is that neither of them sounds plausible for a few reasons:

For CASIC
1. It has never manufactured any strategic missiles since they handed over JL-2 development to CASC in 1980s. The last large missile made by CASIC was JL-1.

2. Kuaizhou-11 failed on its maiden flight and has never come back on mission since then, labelled as "retired" in Long Lehao's presentation. Though later clarified and "debooooked" by Kuaizhou, yet they are still not coming back any time soon.


For CASC
1. It doesn't have a proper motor, at least publicly known, suitable for SLBM. SLBM has strict length-diameter limit unlike ICBM, first stage around 6 meters and diameter less than 2.3 meters. There was also rumor that CASC has a secret missile project based on 2.25m, but no actual evidence to back it up.

2. 320 silo needed to be filled with ICBMs, how much production/design/test capacity CASC still has for new SLBM. The formal prospect published by CASC solid rocket department is to develop 6 core engines in next 5 years and achieve 10 major breakthrough. It doesn't look like there are ICBM and SLBM simultaneously under development.

New JL is from CASC.

主要负责人
李明华
中国航天科技集团有限公司第一研究院
党委书记兼副院长
水下发射大型固体运载火箭研制团队是我国某系列大型火箭研制的核心骨干力量……团队在我国首型、新型和新一代水下发射大型火箭研制中，取得了基础理论、关键技术和工程管理的体系化创新成果。……首型火箭综合性能达到国际先进水平，亮相70周年国庆阅兵方阵；新型火箭完成工程研制，投送距离世界第一；新一代火箭背景预研立项，关键技术攻关取
得重大进展，形成了良好、有序的发展局面

 

[SEAD]

The new NPR eliminates “hedge against an uncertain future” as a formal role of nuclear weapons and nuclear SLCM projects.

It is rather funny that it took away the hedge part because it was intended to “deterrence and can help reduce potential adversaries’ confidence that they can gain advantage through a ‘break out’ or expansion of nuclear capabilities.“ In the context of Chinese nuclear expansion, the so-called "deterrence" part failed but US just chickens out, though de-escalating in nuclear arm control.

If I understand it correctly, it means that US publicly excludes option to increase nuclear superpower threshold by re-deploying more warheads on Trident and ICBM. It is sensible for US because I don't really think US can win a nuclear arm race with China and Russia.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1585675172945739776

It’s a good starting point for controlling the intensity of arms race.

 

[Kalec]

New JL is from CASC.

The question still remains as CASC doesn't have a solid engine with suitable diameter. My wild take, JL-3 could be CASIC's 2.2m engine and CASC carries out the overall design.

It probably takes years to see JL-3 into maturity and still many uncertainties underway, bit too early to tell about its specification.

 

[Kalec]

OK, now I am 90% convinced that CASC is developing a new SLBM on their own. They took out the test in December 2021 but the research was published last week.

I originally thought it was new ICBM or some existing model being tested as baseline, but it turned out to be a SLBM engine from a research published by CASC's testing institute.

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Also note how big ass the rocket engine is, compared with the gas storage chamber. The diameter of engine is definitely higher than the first floor of experimental platform, which is also higher than everyone in this picture. Safe to say it is an engine for SLBM not SLCM.

为研究潜射导弹发动机在弹射筒内弹射过程的环境适应性,研制了一种模拟弹射筒内动态压力环境的气体冲击试验系统。通过试验系统的数学模型仿真分析,匹配合适的蓄压罐容积、管道通径、冲击室容积和排气孔,能够在定容积冲击室内模拟导弹弹射筒内的气体压强历程曲线。

"In order to study the environmental adaptability of motor during the launching process of submarine-launched missiles, a gas impact test system was developed to simulate the dynamic pressure environment in the launching tube. Through mathematical model simulation analysis of the test system, and matching the appropriate volume of pressure storage chamber and impact chamber, tube diameter, exhaust hole, the gas pressure history curve can be simulated in the constant volume impact chamber."

经此一役，标志着我所开辟了一个全新的试验领域，进一步巩固了在固体发动机试验领域的领军地位；同时，为新一代型号关键技术的攻关和研究提供了可行的地面验证试验手段，对推动我国国防建设具有重要的意义！