China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

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ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
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While it is also possible to use chemical separation on spent fuel of civilian nuclear reactors to produce weapons grade plutonium this is more expensive since it requires processing larger volumes of material.
Civilian reactor plutonium cannot be made weapons grade with chemical separation because of contamination with Pu-240 (which occurs when Pu-239 absorbs a neutron as is likely to happen if the fuel spends a long time exposed to neutrons as it is in a civilian reactor). Pu-240 is a problem for several reasons - it has a high rate of spontaneous fission which prematurely detonates the bomb, its decay products damage the bomb, and it produces a lot of heat.

All of these issues can be worked around. The premature detonation can be mitigated by clever implosion designs, the bomb can be cooled and the pit replaced more frequently. However, all of this increases maintenance costs and reduces reliability and readiness. Nobody who has a choice in the matter would use reactor grade plutonium to make weapons.

It should be possible to purify reactor grade plutonium to weapons grade using laser isotope separation. Unfortunately, there's very little publicly accessible about this topic, and what little information there is discusses it in the context of uranium enrichment. The predominant isotope separation technology, centrifugation, isn't used with plutonium because the mass difference between Pu-239 and Pu-240 is too small (in comparison to U-235 and U-238).
Plutonium used to be made in several countries with special graphite moderated or similar reactors designed specifically for military purposes which had plutonium rich output.
Yes. In China's case this was done in Plant 404 at Jiuquan. There's been some activity there and at a nearby industrial park
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The reprocessing facilities are being expanded; however, the reactor itself remains idle.

I expect that what China is doing in expanding its nuclear arsenal is sequencing construction such that the most unambiguous (and thus most provocative) actions are done last. For example, expanding plutonium reprocessing facilities is necessary and has dual civilian/military use (so China can bullshit about it), therefore it's done first. However, refurbishing a graphite moderated production reactor very clearly telegraphs one's intent, so China would do this near the end.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
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I did not see this news from last month here in the forum. While it is unknown if these reactors might be able to produce weapons grade plutonium or not there seems to be a lot of brOSINT hype about it.

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Fuel despatched for China's CFR-600 fast neutron reactor​

30 September 2022

The first batch of nuclear fuel has been dispatched to China for the CFR-600 sodium-cooled pool-type fast-neutron nuclear reactor at Xiapu in China's Fujian province.

Rosatom_fuel_fast_reactor_China_730.jpg

CFR-600 fuel elements (Image: Rosatom)

Two more shipments are due to follow this year from Elemash Machine-building plant, Rosatom’s TVEL fuel company said, which will cover the initial load of the reactor core and the first refueling.

Construction of unit 1 of what is also known as the Xiapu fast reactor demonstration project began in 2017. It is part of China's plan to achieve a closed nuclear fuel cycle. China National Nuclear Corporation announced in December 2020 that construction work had begun on a second unit at the plant.

The aim has been for the first unit to be grid connected around 2023. The reactors will be 1500 MWt, 600 MWe, with 41% thermal efficiency, using mixed-oxide (MOX) fuel with 100 GWd/t burn-up, and with two sodium coolant loops producing steam at 480°C. Later fuel will be metal with burn-up 100-120 GWd/t. Breeding ratio is about 1.1, design operational lifetime 40 years. The design has active and passive shutdown systems and passive decay heat removal.

The Elemash plant’s CFR-600 fuel fabrication facility was launched in 2021 and late last year mock-ups of control and protection system assemblies for the CFR-600 were shipped to the customer for testing of the simulation reactor core, Rosatom said. In addition to the reactor in China, there are BN-600 and BN-800 sodium-cooled fast reactors at Beloyarsk nuclear power plant in the Urals region of Russia.

"The project of fuel fabrication for CFR-600, lasting for already three years, has been a unique task for us in terms of complexity … TVEL has proved it is capable of solving outstanding tasks and being flexible for the customer’s requirements and we definitely see a great potential for the further development of our cooperation with the Chinese partners," said Oleg Grigoriyev, Senior Vice President for Commerce and International Business at TVEL Fuel Company.
 

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
Fast reactors can produce weapons grade plutonium, the reason why is summarized by this graph
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In a thermal reactor (as civilian pressurized water reactors are), the capture and fission cross sections are very similar (the red and green curves at the leftmost region of the graph). In a fast reactor (as the CFR-600 is), the neutrons are much more energetic. Although nuclear reactions in general are less likely (the heights of the curves at the rightmost region of the graph), neutron capture is 1/1000 as likely as fission in the fast region - so any Pu-239 nucleus struck with a neutron in a fast reactor is much more likely to fission (which means it's lost) than to capture the neutron and become Pu-240 (the garbage we don't want). While we'd rather not lose the Pu-239 at all, much better to lose it than have it transform into garbage.
 

Kalec

Junior Member
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Lol absolute state of shitshow here.

The September report told us that "a document describing a foreign government’s military defenses, including its nuclear capabilities, was found by FBI agents who searched former president Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence."

Now we can be 99% sure that it is related to China.
At least one of the documents seized by the FBI describes Iran’s missile program, according to these people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe an ongoing investigation. Other documents described highly sensitive intelligence work aimed at China, they said.
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Meanwhile the DIA 2020 China report says "Over the next decade, China’s nuclear warhead stockpile—currently estimated to be in the low- 200s—is projected to at least double in size as China expands and modernizes its nuclear forces."

I wonder how much they actually knew about Chinese nuclear program because the report in same year made a fool of itself after the massive buildup began next year. Not to mention China is estimated to already have 350 deliverable warheads in 2021.

U.S. public report on Chinese nuclear weapon has been so inaccurate throughout the entire history that it failed to predict the actual size of Chinese nukes every single time, either too high or too low.
 

coolgod

Major
Registered Member
Lol absolute state of shitshow here.

The September report told us that "a document describing a foreign government’s military defenses, including its nuclear capabilities, was found by FBI agents who searched former president Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence."

Now we can be 99% sure that it is related to China.

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Meanwhile the DIA 2020 China report says "Over the next decade, China’s nuclear warhead stockpile—currently estimated to be in the low- 200s—is projected to at least double in size as China expands and modernizes its nuclear forces."

I wonder how much they actually knew about Chinese nuclear program because the report in same year made a fool of itself after the massive buildup began next year. Not to mention China is estimated to already have 350 deliverable warheads in 2021.

U.S. public report on Chinese nuclear weapon has been so inaccurate throughout the entire history that it failed to predict the actual size of Chinese nukes every single time, either too high or too low.
Comrade Trump kept US intelligence on China's nuclear program at his residence.

川建国同志 :eek:


006JxQfwly1h4ors2aapdj30c808u74r.jpg
 

SEAD

Junior Member
Registered Member
1) 1550 warheads is absolutely enough, if you feel unsafe, you may hope more TELs /bombers and better launching tactics rather than more warheads. If each TEL brigade with 50/50 DF-31/41 has 18 launchers and can be reloaded once, 15 brigades is enough and 10 brigades is acceptable (no matter how many warheads are in silos, they are not reliable) If each brigade has 16 launchers without reloading, 30 brigades are definitely necessary. This number is what I’m looking for.

2) Chinese Pu storage can support more than 1000 warheads now.

3) Congress report is something like constitution, a diplomat’s claim means nothing.
 

Kalec

Junior Member
Registered Member
Assuming a size of 6-12 silos per brigade, it is possible that each site could lead to the addition of several new brigades, even if only a fraction of the silos are filled. These brigades would not fit into the PLARF force structure as it is currently composed, likely being too numerous and geographically distant to be subordinated to any of the six current operations Bases, which already oversee 6-7 brigades apiece.
Are they really this dumb? They got paid for full-time jobs and produced a report like this, while Decker did a better job for free.

Each flight controls 10 launch facilities, and each brigade consists of several flights/squadrons. It is very similar to US structure except for asymmetric silo numbers in each brigade.

In case anyone asking why each flight controls 10 launch facilities, just need to know there are respectively 50, 70, 90, 110 in Yumen North, Yumen South, Ordos and Hami silo fields.
 
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