China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

[AssassinsMace]

Nuclear weapons are like semiconductors when it comes to how the West sees things. The US banned semiconductors to China hoping it would make China surrender to all their demands believing China couldn't make any on their own. They never saw China going domestic as an option because they thought it was impossible. China still hasn't achieved it, yet the West has 5 alarms ringing because China's showing progress they never thought was possible in the first place. The West thinks if you could, you would've done it already so because you haven't, it must mean you can't. That's why it's only recent news to Americans that China has nukes because before they thought if China ever got their hands on nukes, China would've used them the instant they got it. Since they never used a nuke on someone else, they must not have them. They see the Chinese as crazy irresponsible because that's what crazy irresponsible does. And yet not only is the US still the only the country to use them on another, they used them when they first got them.

The US was stuck at China only having 300 nukes because that was China's limit on its capabilities. If China could make more, they would already have them. That's why Trump said out loud that the US needs more nukes while demanding China reduce theirs. What was China going to do? Make more nukes when they can't? Now they're alarmed because the way they think is not in tune with reality. Like I've said before, when are Americans going to realize their own racism is a national security threat? The only reason why they still think others aren't capable of doing what they do is because they think they're genetically inferior to them. And look at what their racist arrogance has gotten them. China is well on its way of supplanting Western technology, the pillar of their power. China is making more nukes because the West thought China's pitiful nuclear arsenal was scary enough for them. All because they chose to believe in their own racism.

 

[Totoro]

It's very likely the basis for the 2200 figure was one of reports to US congress on China's military. But apparently it wasn't the 2021 one even, as the 2021 one states 2350 missiles in the rocket force.

Of course, even if that figure is correct (it may not be) there's still the navy and the air force. For the navy we don't know if cruise missile variants of YJ18 have entered service. There has been some talkin the past about Club missiles from Russia, being delivered in their cruise missile variant. So some need may be there. But there's no way to know if Navy has close to zero or a few hundred missiles.

But we do know the Air Force has plenty. Even if we do not count the smaller, shorter ranged ones, used by tactical aircraft, the H-6K fleet alone seems to be devised around cruise missile carriage. Certainly, using H-6 for bomb runs is not likely something PLAAF intends to do. Thus it's likely PLAAF has at least one and possibly several loads worth of cruise missiles for most of their H-6K. (let's say 75-80% that might be flightworthy during a war) Even if the load is just 4 missiles due to range (it could be up to 6) we're likely looking at a few hundred cruise missiles at an absolute minimum. And possibly easily over one thousand.

And the reason why Rocket Force figure may not be correct is the line in the very same document, report to US congress, where it said China test fired or fired for training "more than 250 ballistic missiles in 2020". If someone expends so many missiles for annual training alone - One eighth of the entire assumed arsenal - then that doesn't really support the size of the assumed arsenal. The US doesn't expend nearly as many missiles, percentage wise, during its annual training.

So while the number of launchers the US report on China might be fairly accurate, based on observed units and their sizes, the number of missiles in stocks is, in my opinion, inaccurate. And is likely greater. By how much - it's hard to say.

It has to be said that DF-11 units seem to be retiring. Not sure if all have received or will receive newer systems. Not sure if Rocket Force will even use anything with such short range as DF-11.
It would appear that the part of the DF-11 mission set has been given over to the Army instead. To be performed by new generation very large MRL systems. And trying to track missiles for those is going to even harder.

 

[escobar]

It has to be said that DF-11 units seem to be retiring. Not sure if all have received or will receive newer systems. Not sure if Rocket Force will even use anything with such short range as DF-11.
It would appear that the part of the DF-11 mission set has been given over to the Army instead. To be performed by new generation very large MRL systems. And trying to track missiles for those is going to even harder.

Seems DF-11/15 going to PLARF reserve units...

 

[escobar]

Some wild rumours on hhfw. Don't want to say too much cuz I'm not tryna get one of the last forums banned. But they're indicating >46 DF-5 silos confirmed at this point + some stuff about a HQ-19 KEI being mass deployed. Anyone know how reliable this forum or individuals on it have been in the past?

They're also saying the reason more DF-5s are being built is to leverage the extra liquid fueled production capacity since solids are already being churned out & they want to add warheads as fast as possible.

An improved version of DF-5 YF-20 with staged combustion cycle for the new liquid fueled heavy intercontinental ballistic missile.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1565216847544614912

 

[Totoro]

Seems DF-11/15 going to PLARF reserve units...

Could you give me more about that? Some articles, photos, etc talking about said reorganization?

 

[charles18]

China's showing progress they never thought was possible in the first place. The West thinks if you could, you would've done it already so because you haven't, it must mean you can't.

I was having a discussion with one of my co-workers and this was his Exact Mindset.

Like I've said before, when are Americans going to realize their own racism is a national security threat?

maybe off-topic:
Could it be that the reason why the USA opened up to China back in 1979 is because "White" America thought the Chinese would make good "coolie" workers manufacturing low technology: toys, tennis shoes, and T-shirts? So long as the Chinese move no higher than this position the USA has nothing to worry.
It is my belief it was not racism. It was probably just White America's ignorance.

 

[antiterror13]

Seems DF-11/15 going to PLARF reserve units...

Including the latest variant (i.e DF-15C) ?

 

[antiterror13]

I was having a discussion with one of my co-workers and this was his Exact Mindset.


maybe off-topic:
Could it be that the reason why the USA opened up to China back in 1979 is because "White" America thought the Chinese would make good "coolie" workers manufacturing low technology: toys, tennis shoes, and T-shirts? So long as the Chinese move no higher than this position the USA has nothing to worry.
It is my belief it was not racism. It was probably just White America's ignorance.

nope, it was a geopolitics game to counter USSR

 

[escobar]

Could you give me more about that? Some articles, photos, etc talking about said reorganization?

We are still seeing DF-15/11 in PLARF even as the active brigades upgrade to new systems. Means they are probably operated by the reserve launch unit

 

[AssassinsMace]

I was having a discussion with one of my co-workers and this was his Exact Mindset.


maybe off-topic:
Could it be that the reason why the USA opened up to China back in 1979 is because "White" America thought the Chinese would make good "coolie" workers manufacturing low technology: toys, tennis shoes, and T-shirts? So long as the Chinese move no higher than this position the USA has nothing to worry.
It is my belief it was not racism. It was probably just White America's ignorance.

Yes it always comes down to racism on why Americans think others can't do what they do. China has shown it comes down to money. You have enough of it, you can do anything which is what's alarming the West hence why they're openly talking about destroying China's economy because China isn't helping support the Western system of doing things. During the Cold War it was all about continuously building nukes because it was all about who had more. When the US created the M-X Peacekeeper, the most powerful nuclear missile ever, there were actually members of Congress who complained it was smaller than Soviet ICBMs. China has to be worse than Americans so if China could've, they would have more nukes than they have now because that's how Americans think. The only thing that stopped the US from having more was the START treaty hence why the US wants China to join in order stop China from making as many as they want or can.

As anti-terror has mentioned, it was geopolitics that was the reason why the US opened up to China. They wanted to use China to give the Soviet Union second thoughts. And after the Cold War was over, the US backstabbed China because they no longer needed China to do that. And that's another example of short-sightedness on part of the US. To them China was going to wither away and die without them. They think the US would be even stronger if they didn't have relations with China. No, they would be weaker because they wouldn't have made the untold trillions exploiting cheap labor overseas. During the Wen Ho Lee incident the US Congress was about to pass a law banning anyone of Chinese descent from working in US national laboratories but was pulled at the last minute because someone told them that would hinder US R&D. Without China, the US would've been nuked by the Soviet Union by now. I remember as a kid, everyone back then thought nuclear war was inevitable. It's something as simple as racism why Americans think they don't need anyone else but everyone needs them when history says to the contrary.