China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

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FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
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You mentioned the video satellite, but I found

11km*4.5km width, 0.92m resolution. Again, I cannot find any night/under cloud image from Jilin-1 or any other satellites like it, I’m curious about that.
Here's the video.


Jilin 1 is just a civilian satellite doing this for publicity and showing off capability. More specialized satellites that are actually designed for this would have additional capability.
 

SEAD

Junior Member
Registered Member
Jilin 1 is just an example of this being demonstrated. You can watch the videos yourself.

It is very tedious to have these discussions where only 1 side has citations and scientific proof and the other side just makes assertions so I'd like proof of the runway area of typical airfields and a citation on Jilin 1 swath size.
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it mentioned 40km width
 

SEAD

Junior Member
Registered Member
Here's the video.


Jilin 1 is just a civilian satellite doing this for publicity and showing off capability. More specialized satellites that are actually designed for this would have additional capability.
Again, I have no doubt that a specific designed constellation can do the job. But obviously China doesn’t have such capability for now or in the next decade.
 

Jason_

Junior Member
Registered Member
No silo can be hardened against B-61 like nuclear bombs. The solution against B-61 dropped from B2/21 is: ideally, invest in radar systems that can detect them, and failing that, invest in point defenses that intercepts the dropped bomb before it hits the silo. The latter is quite simple given that the B-61 is a subsonic object in free fall.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
No silo can be hardened against B-61 like nuclear bombs. The solution against B-61 dropped from B2/21 is: ideally, invest in radar systems that can detect them, and failing that, invest in point defenses that intercepts the dropped bomb before it hits the silo. The latter is quite simple given that the B-61 is a subsonic object in free fall.
I was talking about conventional cruise missiles. A 10 m CEP ground burst free fall bomb is a different story. It is also likely that SAM sites will indeed be close by for intercepting incoming cruise missiles and bombers/munitions.

30+ is way off… at least for real time surveillance. Even if they are all IR/SAR sensors (obviously not true)
It is actually 51 launches by my count.

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It is just 1 of many satellite constellations. There's also large OTH radars with very long wavelengths which can detect incoming aircraft.

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China has had these systems since the 1970s.

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You also only need to monitor the airfields where the planes are based. There are only ~20 B-2s and they have specialized hangar requirements.

A combination of current and future early warning and intercept capabilities is likely to provide sufficient deterrence against a first strike by low observables. And they'll still need to try and catch the TELs and SSBNs.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Again, I have no doubt that a specific designed constellation can do the job. But obviously China doesn’t have such capability for now or in the next decade.
So you think they don't have it eh well today is 2022 as of 2021 and it will be expanded to 138 soon! here it is
Jilin Commercial EO Satellite Constellation of China

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Jilin-1 GXA (Guangxe-A — Optical-A) is a Chinese commercial remote sensing satellite mission, also referred to as JL-1, designed and owned by the Chang Guang Satellite Technology Co. Ltd (CGSTL) of Bejing. The development of the JL-1 constellitation began in 2015, and the first 4 satellites were launched on 7 October 2015. In 2021, there are 30 satellites in the constellation and the constellation will be expanded to 138 satellites to offer high resolution imagery and a high revisit commercial service.
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SEAD

Junior Member
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I was talking about conventional cruise missiles. A 10 m CEP ground burst free fall bomb is a different story. It is also likely that SAM sites will indeed be close by for intercepting incoming cruise missiles and bombers/munitions.


It is actually 51 launches by my count.

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It is just 1 of many satellite constellations. There's also large OTH radars with very long wavelengths which can detect incoming aircraft.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

China has had these systems since the 1970s.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

You also only need to monitor the airfields where the planes are based. There are only ~20 B-2s and they have specialized hangar requirements.

A combination of current and future early warning and intercept capabilities is likely to provide sufficient deterrence against a first strike by low observables. And they'll still need to try and catch the TELs and SSBNs.
I think all others are talking about nuclear CM, it’s meaningless to discuss conventional attack in a nuclear war. anyway.

There’s no need to explain why 51 has no difference with 30 in a real time surveillance scene.

For air defense, who knows. We all heard a lot about Chinese OTH/anti-stealth radar blah blah, but as a former radio engineer I cannot believe that they can detect B-2/B-21 in long enough distance/high enough accuracy/good enough ECCM capability for early warning(they are ok for tactical usage, but never for strategic warning). I also cannot assume that PLA didn’t consider the huge amount of B-21 and emerging EW/cyber threat in the next decade when building those silos, So my own hypothesis for this puzzle is that they may use OBS. it’s an big opening question and I don’t want to convince you or anybody.

TEL and SSBN is another story. I think it’s more reasonable to just build more TELs if they are good enough. Meanwhile building silos is meaningful only if they can survive under LRSO/B-61 attack.
 
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