China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

[ChongqingHotPot92]

Corruption exists in China, not just in the military, but even more predominantly in the civilian society. But it did not seem to have affected negatively China's phenomenal economic growth. If it did, just imagine how much more powerful China would be today.

That reminded me of a popular saying back in the early 2000s among the western expats in SE Asia regarding corruption in China. It could have been a joke. But it would have been at the expense of India and not China. Here it is.

" In China, you pay and they get the job done for you. In India, you pay and they just get out of your way. "

What the saying meant was that corruption existed in China actually improved on the efficiency of the system. But in the other country, corruption slowed you down.

Lobbying in the good olde USA is a form of rent seeking, except the US law allows it. In China, rent seeking is illegal on paper, but if you do it (and the other side willing take your inputs), things really speed up. Yes, corruption acts as a catalyst in both superpowers. In China, while it is illegal, you could get away with it as long as you stay away from directly giving cash or property, know the right connections in CCDI, or if you company possess technologies/resources deemed critical to China's long-term economic competitiveness, such as rocket propulsion, chips, etc.

 

[OppositeDay]

Several of my undergrad upperclassmen were promoted that way. They joined the military through their fathers' connections (all veteran officers of 1979 Sino-Vietnamese War)

All my cousins in Beijing, and I do mean every single one of them, got their jobs through nepotism. They are all competent people and none of them are in any sort of leadership position except the one who started later his own company. Most of them are now working under people who have no family connections. People like us tend to be very risk averse. We've grown up in middle/upper-middle class household under the watchful eyes of well-educated parents, and often have received excellent education ourselves. We make good cogs in the machine and are unlikely to be the break points.

Of course, if an organization is entirely run by people like us then there's a problem. But PLA at least is getting plenty of fresh blood nowadays from China's top colleges. So I won't worry too much.

 

[Michaelsinodef]

All my cousins in Beijing, and I do mean every single one of them, got their jobs through nepotism. They are all competent people and none of them are in any sort of leadership position except the one who started later his own company. Most of them are now working under people who have no family connections. People like us tend to be very risk averse. We've grown up in middle/upper-middle class household under the watchful eyes of well-educated parents, and often have received excellent education ourselves. We make good cogs in the machine and are unlikely to be the break points.

Of course, if an organization is entirely run by people like us then there's a problem. But PLA at least is getting plenty of fresh blood nowadays from China's top colleges. So I won't worry too much.

This seems 'fair enough' for me.

As it stands for now and the foreseeable future, people with more resources (connections, experience, money and political power) will be able to spend more resources on their kids so they will have an advantage.
This is true everywhere on earth.

As long as corruption isn't rampant, and is checked/suppressed the future seems quite bright for China (although the world is heading towards more uncertain times).



To go back to topic, do you guys think China should directly announce to the world its actual nuclear warhead stock?

Like say when they break X amount, or maybe wait to if tensions go higher around Taiwan or some other reason/timing?

 

[Equation]

This seems 'fair enough' for me.

As it stands for now and the foreseeable future, people with more resources (connections, experience, money and political power) will be able to spend more resources on their kids so they will have an advantage.
This is true everywhere on earth.

As long as corruption isn't rampant, and is checked/suppressed the future seems quite bright for China (although the world is heading towards more uncertain times).



To go back to topic, do you guys think China should directly announce to the world its actual nuclear warhead stock?

Like say when they break X amount, or maybe wait to if tensions go higher around Taiwan or some other reason/timing?

No, because nobody is forcing Israel about their official nuclear warheads (and they're not suppose to have any) counts, so why should China?

 

[Michaelsinodef]

No, because nobody is forcing Israel about their official nuclear warheads (and they're not suppose to have any) counts, so why should China?

To deter US mostly (since they are only reporting 300 in reports, might make some people in washington think they can do a 'first strike')

 

[pipaster]

To deter US mostly (since they are only reporting 300 in reports, might make some people in washington think they can do a 'first strike')

For China this might mean the US is forced to invest in more and or more modern ICBMs. Also it might force the US to invest in GBMD all of which are defensive measures in nature and take money/staffing away from the frontline.

 

[Rettam Stacf]

To go back to topic, do you guys think China should directly announce to the world its actual nuclear warhead stock?

Like say when they break X amount, or maybe wait to if tensions go higher around Taiwan or some other reason/timing?

Just sticking my neck out. I think China will announced the number of warheads and launchers in their possession when they are comfortable that the numbers are good enough for a first strike in a MAD situation, even if they still maintain a NFS policy. The option of moving away from NFS is another level of deterrence. Below that, there is no benefit of doing so.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

To go back to topic, do you guys think China should directly announce to the world its actual nuclear warhead stock?

Like say when they break X amount, or maybe wait to if tensions go higher around Taiwan or some other reason/timing?

this is a big card and one that you only get to play once. wasting it for a small opportunity is not worth.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

To go back to topic, do you guys think China should directly announce to the world its actual nuclear warhead stock?

Like say when they break X amount, or maybe wait to if tensions go higher around Taiwan or some other reason/timing?

I don't think so. China should always keep a tight mum on the exact size of her nuclear arsenal.

Just like what @FairAndUnbiased said, the card can only be used once. So China would need to use her cards very, very wisely.

In my opinion, the only time that China should even consider using this card would be to push for brinkmanship against the US, her allies and Taiwan (or vice-versa) regarding Taiwan's reunification issue. For example, in case the US and her allies threaten to directly intervene in China's military operation to reunify Taiwan.

But even if such brinkmanship is used, China should never reveal the true size of her nuclear arsenal. Instead of the usual:

"China's nuclear arsenal is enough to ensure minimum level of strategic deterrence";

China could go with leaks-like "statements" from ambiguous sources, such as:

"China's nuclear arsenal is capable of the total destruction of the populace of all the XXX/offending countries"; or

"China's nuclear arsenal is sufficient to wipe out all military sites and population centers of all the XXX/offending countries"; or

"China's nuclear arsenal is viable in ensuring that all the XXX/offending countries would never possess the capability of harming the nation of China and the Chinese people, forever"; or

"China's nuclear arsenal is enough to ensure that all the XXX/offending countries would never have the ability to even rebuilt/reconstruct themselves to become a functional part of the global society, ever again"; etc.

Of course the last one sounds extreme, but what can you do when you are left with no other choices?

In short, keeping the enemy guessing about China's true nuclear strike capabilities would be the best way to keep the enemy at bay. There's no need to reveal your best cards, when your currently available just-okay cards work just fine.

 

[clockwork]

I don't think so. China should always keep a tight mum on the exact size of her nuclear arsenal.

Just like what @FairAndUnbiased said, the card can only be used once. So China would need to use her cards very, very wisely.

In my opinion, the only time that China should even consider using this card would be to push for brinkmanship against the US, her allies and Taiwan (or vice-versa) regarding Taiwan's reunification issue. For example, in case the US and her allies threaten to directly intervene in China's military operation to reunify Taiwan.

But even if such brinkmanship is used, China should never reveal the true size of her nuclear arsenal. Instead of the usual:

"China's nuclear arsenal is enough to ensure minimum level of strategic deterrence";

China could go with leaks-like "statements" from ambiguous sources, such as:

"China's nuclear arsenal is capable of the total destruction of the populace of all the XXX/offending countries"; or

"China's nuclear arsenal is sufficient to wipe out all military sites and population centers of all the XXX/offending countries"; or

"China's nuclear arsenal is viable in ensuring that all the XXX/offending countries would never possess the capability of harming the nation of China and the Chinese people, forever"; or

"China's nuclear arsenal is enough to ensure that all the XXX/offending countries would never have the ability to even rebuilt/reconstruct themselves to become a functional part of the global society, ever again"; etc.

Of course the last one sounds extreme, but what can you do when you are left with no other choices?

In short, keeping the enemy guessing about China's true nuclear strike capabilities would be the best way to keep the enemy at bay. There's no need to reveal your best cards, when your currently available just-okay cards work just fine.

It's not even an actual card lol. The US is gonna always have a fairly accurate ballpark estimate of the arsenal: it's never gonna be like they're still putting out estimates of 300 while China already has 1500. At best China revealing the true value would ascertain it within a narrow range of expectation they have, because they don't have it clarified down to the exact warhead like with Russia & mutual verification under treaties. I mean, they already know China is conducting a "strategic breakout" and have projected 1000+ by 2030 in official reports (probably even higher in this year's...)