China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

[AndrewS]

CN can't match US military plane production...

Depends on how much China decides to increase military spending.

Even the DOD high estimate only puts Chinese military spending at 2.6% of GDP
SIPRI have Chinese military spending at 1.7%, so China would have to more than double military spending to match the USA which is at 3.7%

I ran the figures before in terms of non-labour military spending, and 3.7% should be enough for China to outspend the US military.
So it is really about whether China chooses this path, rather than if China has the capacity to do so

 

[escobar]

Depends on how much China decides to increase military spending.

Even the DOD high estimate only puts Chinese military spending at 2.6% of GDP
SIPRI have Chinese military spending at 1.7%, so China would have to more than double military spending to match the USA which is at 3.7%

I ran the figures before in terms of non-labour military spending, and 3.7% should be enough for China to outspend the US military.
So it is really about whether China chooses this path, rather than if China has the capacity to do so

I don't think just giving more money to PLA will change that.

 

[AndrewS]

I don't think just giving more money to PLA will change that.

And why wouldn't increased funding result in increased output?

It just takes some time

 

[PiSigma]

And why wouldn't increased funding result in increased output?

It just takes some time

A lot of time. There is a reason ramping up production is hard. Every single part of the millions of parts used in a plane needs to increase production. Then you got to hire skilled workers to make them. In order to ensure quality of parts, need to train those people adequately and build experience, which takes years.

If China doubled the defence spending today, it would take close to 5-10 years depending on the system to fully double production.

 

[AndrewS]

A lot of time. There is a reason ramping up production is hard. Every single part of the millions of parts used in a plane needs to increase production. Then you got to hire skilled workers to make them. In order to ensure quality of parts, need to train those people adequately and build experience, which takes years.

If China doubled the defence spending today, it would take close to 5-10 years depending on the system to fully double production.

I'd give it more like 3 years actually to ramp up production of existing aircraft types.

If you are doubling production, that implies half the workforce and capacity already exists.

Anyway, back on topic

 

[externallisting]

On the case about conventional ICBM, this is what

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

who worked on SIOP/OPLAN 8044 (US classifed plan for nuclear war) say:

I have to question the source here.

First page of his twitter is him talking about star wars and commenting upon a kid skateboarding with a dog.

Pardon me if I don't take his claims credulously.

At least that fat ex-USN sonar operator "sub brief" on YT tries to accomplish a veneer of plausibility, even if when he's laughably out of his depth in either what he can or will disclose, let alone fit down a hatch.

Your source is like reading Tom Clancy books in 2021.

 

[PiSigma]

I'd give it more like 3 years actually to ramp up production of existing aircraft types.

If you are doubling production, that implies half the workforce and capacity already exists.

Anyway, back on topic

A lot longer than 3 years. When 611 tried to increase production a decade ago, the planning, training, construction and implementation took them a good part of a decade. My uncle used to complain constantly about some builders in 611.

Of course it comes down to complexity, certain parts like radar and engines would take longer than steel.

 

[clockwork]

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Still 350. There's a bunch of questionable assumptions like JL-2 is unitary, and DF-41 is only 3x MIRV. Don't know what to conclude besides China's count is already higher, probably more like 450 or something already.

 

[9dashline]

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Still 350. There's a bunch of questionable assumptions like JL-2 is unitary, and DF-41 is only 3x MIRV. Don't know what to conclude besides China's count is already higher, probably more like 450 or something already.

China was at 400 back in early 2000s

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Still 350. There's a bunch of questionable assumptions like JL-2 is unitary, and DF-41 is only 3x MIRV. Don't know what to conclude besides China's count is already higher, probably more like 450 or something already.

This is just funny

Production of military plutonium reportedly ceased in the mid-1980s, and there are no public reports that it has resumed (Zhang 2018).

Does he expect China to make an announcement? Hey, guys, we're making plutonium for nuclear weapons right here, wanna come see?

But at the end of the day, Hans is, along with SFA Agent Chang, serving in silence. Remember, China always has 350 warheads by definition